Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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Sorry about the word nobody. I'm sure one out of every 500 kids may have looked at it once. The number may have grown for kids of the 2000s, with all the information about stats readily available to everybody. But the vast, vast, vast majority of kids never looked at a baseball card and subtracted AVG from SLG to determine which players were power hitters. Again, because I feel the need to say this one more time... I never did that to determine anything. I simply noticed the correlation. The thing I took issue with was hawkeyecub calling me a liar. For something so plausible (even if somewhat rare), I don't take kindly to accusations.
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Um, OK. I understood basic math at a young age, but I didn't spend time doing this. Never said I spent time doing it. Never said I used it to identify power hitters. I said kids figure it out. And let's be honest, it's really, really hard not to notice the correlation.
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You're not, you're just the one being honest. This is extremely offensive. Just because you didn't understand basic math at a young age doesn't mean nobody did. Except nobody was looking at baseball cards and subtracting AVG from SLG to determine which players were powerful hitters. You mean to tell me you find it outside the realm of possibility that a young kid who likes math... a kid who is calculating his own BA and OBP and Slugging from little league games... didn't notice that guys with a bunch of home runs had a slugging percentage about .200-.250 points higher than their batting average and guys who didn't hit home runs had a much lower difference? That the very idea a kid might notice such a thing is so unrealistic that you can determine that nobody did that? Nah. You guys can't say that. You're just being jerks to be jerks.
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You're not, you're just the one being honest. This is extremely offensive. Just because you didn't understand basic math at a young age doesn't mean nobody did.
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You know some pretty smart 12 year olds who are talking about ISoP I can distinctly remember sitting in my attic with cards laid out and and subtracting AVG from SLG. The best of these would be my "Sluggers" when arranging my cards into batting orders. I had no idea it had a name, it just seemed like something worth doing. I'd also subtract AVG from OBP to "see who walked alot" amongst those with decent averages. EDIT: This may have been later. Thinking back, I imagine lots of kids did very similar things. I absolutely did the same things.
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The latest that's being used by a statistician near you? This is a joke, right? I think he was simply asking if that is a popular statistic. Pretty fair question, considering that your average baseball fan is just learning what OBP is. Yeah, but 12 year olds all over the country figure this stat out on their own... looking at baseball cards or the stadium displays. It's a basic, basic stat to show power.
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The latest that's being used by a statistician near you? This is a joke, right?
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Unless they flat out say they need him to start next year, I don't see why there would be pressure, albeit increased pressure as you stated. The 40-man roster does pose a problem, but the Cubs can always drop someone from that if need be. RISP is sometimes overlooked, and it shouldn't be. RISP splits have almost zero predicative power. Great for evaluating what has happened, but it means jack crap going forward.
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Rangers interested in Nady
Rob replied to Schwarber Fan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yeah, that's what I was getting at. I've always liked his potential, but moreso as a catcher than a 1st baseman. Especially now that he's sporting a minor league OPS south of .800. Still, you dont think hed be worth Xavier Nady even if we do pick up whatever we still owe him? This is Xavier Nade were talking about. I'd rather gamble on an upside arm in the lower minors. -
That's the 2010 Cubs problem. But if Tyler Colvin is the opening day starter for the 2011 Cubs, that will be part of the problem. Let's not pretend 2011 isn't a lost cause already.
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As far as who's avail. Werth as an unrestricted FA will likely be the best position player avail., if Colorado does not pick up the option on Hawpe, he would be the other interesting option. I'd be more interested in Carl Crawford than Jayson Werth. And I want no part of Brad Hawpe... He was a born DH.
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You do realize the Cubs operate with budgetary constraints, right? Yes, but that doesn't meant they have to spend $400,000 on a RF who makes an out 70% of the time. Even if we adjust his BABIP down (and it's not terribly high), and his HR/FB rate down (which is higher), he's still not going to be much more than about 1 win below average over a full season... in his first real playing time... at 24 years old. There is absolutely nothing wrong with giving a player like that a real shot to make adjustments as he enters his prime. Especially when it costs nothing. That is almost exactly the sort of player that teams look for to fill out the roster alongside their higher-paid superstars. Our problem is that our higher salaried players don't nearly earn their paychecks... not that guys like Colvin aren't superstars.
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You do realize the Cubs operate with budgetary constraints, right?
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I don't think he is valued much around the League either. He's basically viewed as an expensive RF'er that doesn't hit well enough for a corner OF spot. I don't know if that's the view around all the teams in the league (as shown by smarter teams like the Red Sox being interested), but it seems to be the Cubs view... which is what's really killing the trade value.
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I don't know how you can say probably not. If he's a sub .300 OBP corner OF there most definitely is something wrong with him as a starter. The more he's played, the worse he's been. The ability for the Cubs to have Tyler Colvin starting everyday, and not suffering as a result, is very much in doubt. A NL average RF is hitting .263/.333/.447 so far this season. He may end up a bit light on the OBP side of that, but is showing he can do the slugging. And he has some extra value with baserunning and fielding. An average to slightly below average RF making league minimum? There's real value in that. Not every team can have superstars at every single position on the field... Hell, not even the Yankees can do that. Besides, we're not going anywhere. Where's the harm in seeing what we've got with him? (I had a problem with this before, as it would sink Fukudome's trade value... but that damage is already done)
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Colvin is better than most here are giving him credit for. Is gonna be a superstar? Unlikely. Is there anything wrong with him as a starter while he's cheap? Probably not.
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On the contrary, I'd love for us to eat his contract. Realistically, this team probably wont compete next year. So any salary of Silva's (or any other player) that we pick up to facilitate a trade wont exactly keep us from adding those one or two missing pieces to put us in the playoffs. And it's not like any savings in the budget will go towards 2012's payroll. Really, the best thing we can do is pick up as much of the contract as we can afford... that way we can get some very nice prospects.
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We all need to remember that, in general, firing a GM during the season simply results in the assistant GM taking over for the rest of the season. The real search to fill the position is done after the season. So really, the question is whether you'd rather have Jim Hendry or Randy Bush the rest of the season. I know who I'd choose.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-5-10
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
You're not doing yourself any favors going out of your way in every single thread to talk about how little you think of Vitters. The act is getting stale. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-5-10
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Vitters is already a bust! BUSSSSTTTTT!!!! -
The Angels were going to take Simpson before the Cubs had another pick.
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A circus has some plusses. Lou will be let go at the end of the year. Hendry can kiss his job goodbye. Higher draft pick next year.
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Fukudome on the Block
Rob replied to Elwood's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Say hello to my new sig. -
I sure as hell want to.
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I've been picking some good ones to go to this season. Had some real nice seats three rows behind the Cubs dugout, perfect weather, and a great game.
