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ThePenguin11

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  1. ThePenguin11
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lillyte01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/padilvi01.shtml Not much of an explanation there...ERA is the only major difference based on the stats. WHIP and ERA+ have been similar if not leaning more in Lilly's favor over last 3 years.
  2. ThePenguin11
    I think that Lilly is a great move if it's complemented by another signing of a starter equal to or better than Lilly. i.e. if we sign Lilly and follow it up with Marquis or Meche, I won't feel great about it. If we get Schmidt, Zito (unrealistic, I know) or someone like Padilla, then I think Hendry will have done a good job. Looking at Lilly's stats and splits, I think that he'll benefit by moving to the NL and at the very least that will cancel out his possible trevails of moving to Wrigley (which is a coin-toss as to whether it is a hitter's park or a pitcher's park from year to year). Personally, I think that it's right in the middle of being either. Wrigley's stats are going to be up if the Cubs have bashers and a crappy pitching staff and down if they can't hit and get decent pitching. In my eyes, it pretty much averages out. Anyway, to me, a move to the NL away from the likes of the AL east's bashers, Lilly fare a lot better. TB has had an underrated offensive team for two years even though they're not HR heavy, the Red Sox and the Yankees are bashers, and the Orioles are decent offensively. Like I said, if Lilly is complemented by an equal or better SP move, I think it's a great move at 4 years $36M-ish.
  3. ThePenguin11
    Sold. Where do I sign?
  4. ThePenguin11
    That sounds reasonable, but accouding to Bruce Miles the Cubs are looking for 2 SP, if they pony up that much money for Shmidt that may preclude signing another with the going rate for mediocre pitching being what it is. However, the Cubs seem to be spending like a sailor on shore leave this year so... The point of those figures is that they'll be saving money now in order to get more talent. They won't care about payroll four or five years from now. That's got to be why Soriano's contract is only paying him $9M (not to mention the 8 years) in 2007, why not /EDIT: follow suit/ with any other contracts they negotiate?
  5. ThePenguin11
    I don't think Hendry or anyone in the front office cares about a long-term deal involving Schmidt or any SP for that matter. Judging by the contract signed by Soriano (which is totally backloaded for future ownership), they're thinking about acquiring talent now to make this a desirable team for potential suitors looking to purchase the ball club. I could see Hendry offering 4 years / 60 million and making it $12M / $14M / $16M / $18M in order to get the deal done and keep this year's payroll (and next year - the last of Hendry's contract BTW) as low as possible. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a fifth year added if absolutely necessary. It would look something like this $12M/$14M/$15M/$16M/$18M - totaling $75M.
  6. ThePenguin11
    We can't afford to lose another SP, unless we acquire one elsewhere to make up for it. Hill shouldn't be untouchable, not if somebody is willing to give up a stud for him and you can cover your pitching with another move. If we trade Hill our rotation consists of Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior (if not in the deal). We'd have to trade for a guy like Westbrook, hope to sign Schmidt (not likely after taking on Tejada's salary) or two other SP's from this free agent crop - most of which are glorified 4/5 starters. I'm not very willing to give up anyone in our plans for 2007 if it sets us back at multiple positions.
  7. ThePenguin11
    We can't afford to give up the manpower it would take to acquire Tejada. The first thing they'll ask for is Hill, then Pie, then maybe even Prior. It took me a long time to get here but I'm finally on the Hill bandwagon. The conversation starts and ends at Rich Hill. We can't afford to lose another SP and they might ask for two of them. Pie, meh, I don't care much about him in this type of deal, but that's far from enough for the Orioles.
  8. ThePenguin11
    Kaplan also said that the "Floyd deal would be done by Monday", also....So go figure. Did I miss something here? Are we supposed to be signing Floyd by Monday? Or is Floyd expected to be signed by some team by Monday?
  9. ThePenguin11
    I'll bet the reason the Cubs are being linked to so many pitcher rumors is the fact that they knew they were out of Igawa's bidding earlier today. It would make sense that they would make a serious offer to Schmidt now that Igawa is unavailable. I know that seems backwards but there wasn't a deadline to sign Schmidt.
  10. ThePenguin11
    Maybe Jocketty will be looking to unload Pujols too. We can see if they'll combo him and Carpenter in a deal while we're at it.
  11. ThePenguin11
    If Hendry picks up Floyd for more than $6M, you can bet his intention is to start - or at the very least platoon him.
  12. ThePenguin11
    I thought you're in SF?? And did WSCR break out of Blackhawks play-by-play to allow Ralph Whatever-his-name-is to discuss Jason Schmidt? EDIT: Olney doesn't work for WSCR either, he works for ESPN which would be WMVP. EDIT #2: Barbieri works in SF sports radio.
  13. ThePenguin11
    ...And sign Lugo of course. If JH is really opening up the pocketbook getting that done would finish the offseason for me. Is it realistic?
  14. ThePenguin11
    I'll be happy with Hendry if he gets two of Igawa/Lilly/Westbrook. I think there's a better chance of that happening than signing Schmidt. Those three are very solid rotation additions IMO.
  15. ThePenguin11
    That being said, I think the Cubs should spend their money on 2 of the afforementioned 4 starters and call it a day. Maddux would only serve as a last resort if those guys were seriously overpaid for.
  16. ThePenguin11
    Signing Maddux would be a terrible idea IMO. If he came at the same price of a Gil Meche, I'd take Maddux since you know you're getting 200+ innings. Some of these FA pitchers are really glorified #5 starters - but because of the market expecting to get #2/3 starter money. Maddux for <$7M is a bargain nowadays. None of the pitchers after Schmidt, Zito, Igawa and maybe Padilla can be expected to notch 15 wins next year.
  17. ThePenguin11
    I'm gonna say that the Cubs either sign Igawa or Schmidt then sign Floyd after his health issues are cleared up and end up with Maddux after Hendry realizes that the other tier 2/3 free agents are no better statistically. I'd like to see Lugo brought in since his price tag is relatively low, but I anticipate that we'll see Floyd brought in at under $6M for a one-year deal.
  18. ThePenguin11
    As far as I can tell there's not much room left for the 25-man aside from a SP or two and maybe one position player depending on what happens with Cedeno and Theriot. I see the current 25 looking like this: SP (5) (In no particular order) Zambrano, Hill, Prior, Miller and TBD. RP - 8 Dempster, Howry, Eyre, Wuertz, Ohman, Wood, Cotts and Novoa IF (5) Lee, Derosa, Izturis, Ramirez, Barrett OF (3) Soriano, Murton, Jones Bench (4) Blanco, Cedeno, Theriot, TBD. So as far as I can tell the $25,000,000 we have left to spend will be for two starting pitchers a possible upgrade at CF or SS and maybe one more bench player. If the Cubs have that much money left I can actually see them offering ~$15M to Schmidt. After comparing the top ten free agent starting pitchers what I noticed is that Schmidt and Zito are the only pitchers in the bunch who don't consistently post ERA's in the 4.20-4.50 range, and WHIP's in the 1.45 range. So with that in mind, wouldn't it make sense to dump 60% of our remaining budget on a real pitcher such as Schmidt (maybe Igawa) then spend the last $10M in trades (taking on salaries) or on filling out the last roster spot or two?
  19. ThePenguin11
    I don't dislike DeRosa, but when you really break it down, isn't he Todd Walker at best? Walker was making a lot less money too. I'm nonplussed but I'll give Hendry the benefit of the doubt for now.
  20. ThePenguin11
    i can't tell you how much more i want jd drew than any of those guys. it's not even close. i don't even know why carlos lee is in the conversation at this point. he would be a huge waste of money that would not fill any hole. I don't think Lee should be a priority, but if we strike out on a couple other hitters, we will have to consider upgrading Murton.
  21. ThePenguin11
    Wow. That's pretty ridiculous. Matt Murton<<<<
  22. ThePenguin11
    Doesn't he live in Arizona? During the offseason. I think he lives there full time. No, he's been living in Chicago during the season. I'm sure his wife would be surprised to hear that. I'm pretty sure she knows. He spent the last 6+ months living in Chicago so if she hasn't caught on by now then I don't think Steve needs to worry about what she is or isn't surprised about.
  23. ThePenguin11
    Can we hold his decision making ability against him, since he chose to go there? :D He chose Tampa because he and his family live there. Not because it was an ideal winning situation.
  24. ThePenguin11
    FWIW, Steve Stone just interviewed on WSCR mentioned that he knows many people in baseball that believe Larry Rothschild is a top 5 MLB pitching coach and that he believes that the Cubs will be in a world series within the next two years.
  25. ThePenguin11
    I've said Soriano is overrated for a long time, and I maintain that. I've never said you can't trade for guys with OBPs below .375. I have said that if you are going to overpay for guys, at least do it with guys who stand a chance of being really good, or great. Soriano has been inconsistent. His production has varied greatly during this career, but since he achieved a level of notoriety on a WS champion Yankees team, he's been hailed as something he is not. He's not really worth $10 million, and his career pre 2006 proved that. If you think you'd have been happy paying $10m per year for the Soriano that played from 2001-2005, I'd bet otherwise. FWIW, I've said many times that I realize "my way" is not the only way to win, but I disagree with the Hendry way, and those that like that sort of thing, because it means there is an inefficient use of resources. But, if you have a top 5 payroll, efficiency isn't as important. That was an exaggeration for effect. I should have said .400 for more impact. Sarcasm. I'm a large supporter of OBP, but it's not my say-all-end-all. Bottom line is that it's only one of many, many statistics needed to evaluate a player.
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