BigbadB

I don't think that's the way you have to look at it. The way to look at it is would I rather: Nomar 3b Furcal SS Beltran CF or would I rather have Aramis 3b Furcal SS Preston Wilson CF Beltran could probably use a change of scenery about now. Bad move by the Mets. They still have Cameron, so they could put Floyd in LF and Drew in RF. Beltran is a much better player than his 2004 season. He's what we hoped Corey Patterson would become. It's not a deal that is likely to happen, but I would make that trade.

I could list 100 different trade scenarios where I let Aramis go. Most wouldn't be straight up deals, but I could list all kinds of trades that I would do, and Aramis is one of my favorite players. If Nomar was locked up, I could list hundreds that I'd do. Here's just one that I'd do: Aramis to LA, Drew to Mets, Beltran to Cubs.

Many players typically do hit lefties better than righties if they are righties themselves. One thing that hasn't been discussed with this runner on base discussion is the use of the hit and run. Obviously, you don't hit and run if there are no runners on base. The hit and run is a pretty useful tool to get fielders out of position so that balls can poke through for hits. This should be an extra bonus for the hitter with runners on base. Not so for Giles based on his numbers with runners on 1st. The problem here is that you are assuming that Furcal's speed has a positive effect, when in fact stats prove otherwise. I like Furcal a lot. I think his speed does give a team better chances at scoring runs. He can score from first on a double, he can steal 2nd and score on a single. However, each time he gets caught stealing or attempting to get an extra base, he in fact hurts the teams chances. Overall, I'd say that he's a plus factor. I also believe that OBP should be counted against the hitter for GIDP and caught stealing. The stolen base is an unforced error. The GIDP made two outs with one swing rather than just 1. If you take this into consideration, Neifi had an even worse OBP and Juan Pierre's looks much worse.

Giles' family does still reside in San Diego. It was one of the reasons he wanted to come to San Diego. But, he also wanted Kendall here too, and San Diego wouldn't make it happen. Kendall is also originally a San Diegan and best friends with Giles when they were together in Pitt. Giles did alright in Jack Murphy (Qualcomm), but his numbers take a real dive in Petco. He's been very vocal about his warning track outs. The Padres have let David Wells walk without giving him a fair offer. Wells was a local boy as well. The Padres haven't done a lot of stuff that makes much sense to me. Letting Wells walk was just plain stupid. His contract last year was 3.5m plus incentives if I recall. He only gave them a 12-8 record with nearly 200 innings and a sub 4.00 ERA. Actually, as I look at his salary for 2004 on baseball reference, it says 1.25m. Maybe all he was asking for was 3.5m for 2005 and didn't get it. Actually, that sounds right. He got a hair over 4m to sign with Boston when San Diego attempted to play games with him. The Padres could have signed Finley to play centerfield. Instead, they overpaid for Dave Roberts. Yes, they made the playoffs, but they were just barely above .500. If any other team in that division had things go right, San Diego would have been sitting at home because they went cheap in CF and cheap in the rotation. Petco is right near the top in attendance. They are cheap, cheap, cheap and if Brian Giles is dumb enough to accept much less to stay and play in a park that hurts his production, so be it.

Two guys with identical OBP's. One guy steals more than the other, but he also gets thrown out attempting to steal. The guy who doesn't run as much REALLY has the better overall OBP and has more opportunities to score. I do see the argument that the other guy gets in scoring position more often. But, the cost factor comes into play once again. Walker makes 2.5m and Furcal will make somewhere around 8m+. We can't really compare them. Walker never led off this year and he didn't play a full season. Scoring runs also is very dependent on who his hitting behind you and how often you get on base. Furcal's .348 OBP was good for 100 runs scored this year. But Pujols led the league in runs scored with his .430 OBP.

Scarily, the Braves don't have to stop there. They have many more home grown prospects where those came from.

Edited to state that Furcal got on because of an error by Qualls. Furcal tried to take 3rd using his speed and was gunned down.

Furcal got credit for a hit last night, but he ended up sitting in the dugout because of his speed. Walker would have settled for a double there. And he had a very good chance to score with none out. Furcal was the 1st out of the inning and left the next hitter with no one on base. Just one isolated incident. But, Furcal also gets gunned down attempting to steal. 10 times this year alone. Walker got caught stealing once. Furcal probably will score more often than Walker because of speed. However, Walker costs 2.5m and Furcal will cost at least 8m.

Pie is 20 years old. 20. Put 20 years old under a magnifying glass. 2 years out of high school for most. Sophomore's in college for others. Finishing up JUCO for others. Do you honestly expect Pie to be completely refined at 20 years old? We certainly don't have Atlanta's success. I sure wish we did. Bag on the weaknesses of our farm director's all you want, but please don't use Pie as the scapegoat for everything that is wrong. And why must we always compare Pie to Patterson? They aren't twins. They aren't even from the same country. Assuming every guy with little plate patience will just be another Corey Patterson is ridiculous. Some turn into Hall of Famers.

Looks to me like he just butted in on the picture. Look at the table setting arrangement.

I was hoping the Derrek Lee quote would read: "We need to get this knucklehead manager out of here if we are ever going to improve as a ballclub."

How confident is Atlanta that Betemit can handle SS? With Marte just about ready, and a whole bunch of outfielders already ready, I would think that Furcal would be on their list of guys to resign. He's young, he leads off, he has speed, he plays a tough position to find a replacement. Easier guys for them to replace would be Andruw and Chipper.

I didn't say you had to trade Aramis or Lee. I said you have that option. Aramis is one of my favorite players. If the trade made sense and improved the team, I don't see why one couldn't consider it. I also think Nomar could be pretty good at 3rd once he got a little more settled in.

He might be. But, do you honestly envision him leaving the Yankees?

Yeah, I'm sure it is. But, I can't help going back to the fact that we have Nomar, and we don't have Furcal. Rumors are already starting. Atlanta could make a play to bring him back. He's rumored to have said he'd move to 2b to play for the Mets. What if Texas went after Furcal? They could trade Soriano, move Young back to 2nd and put Furcal at SS. I'm not bringing all this up just to be annoying. I think they are legitimate concerns. I realize you really want Furcal. But, are you willing to settle for a 22 year old kid with 80 big league at bats if we can't get Furcal? I think Cedeno has the chance to be very good. But, I wouldn't be willing to bet the entire 2006 season on it. Consider this scenario. The Cubs retain Nomar with an incentive laden 1 year deal. It starts at 5m and can climb to 12m. The Cubs retain Walker at his 2.5m option. The Cubs go hard after Giles and Furcal and in some weird twighlight zone type of thing, they both sign with the Cubs. Lofton signs for 2m to platoon with Hairston in center. Now you have trade commodity. Aramis would be quite appealing to quite a few teams. Walker as well. Maybe even both. What would Aramis, Walker and Jerome Williams land? What would Aramis, Walker, Williams and Mitre land? Nomar can cover 3rd and Cedeno plays 2nd. What if you couldn't get Giles? Could you send Aramis to Philadelphia for Abreu in a package deal? Would Boston be interested in Aramis for Manny? What if Murton didn't work out? Could Nomar play LF? With the gun he has, maybe he can play RF? What if Nomar moved to 2nd and Walker got traded for bullpen help? All of these things are realistic. Some are a stretch. But another thing that is realistic to me is Nomar gets the boot, Walker gets the boot, Furcal signs elsewhere, Giles signs elsewhere and we are attempting to sign this years versions of Jeromy Burnitz (Preston Wilson, etc...) I watched last years debacle and it was truly a debacle. A few mods can recall that I nearly blew a head gasket when it was announced that they had signed Jeromy Burnitz. I went into a tirade. I calmed down and took a deep breath and shook it all off. I told myself "Self, this team can win even with Jeromy Burnitz in right field." Of course, that was before I knew that Macias, Perez and Patterson were going to be leading the way in the lead off spot. That was before I knew Nomar was going to get hurt. That was before I knew Hollandsworth was going to get penciled in everyday. To me, Nomar and Walker is like having two kings in your hand in a friendly game of draw poker. Do you toss the two kings away hoping for two aces? Or do you hope that you can draw another ace or two when you toss those other 3 cards?

We know what Nomar is backwards, but what is Michael backwards?

Some might argue that Damon will be the top free agent available. Not me, but someone. Gammons maybe? Burnett and Millwood will be right up there as well.

You do realize that Rafael Furcal averaged close to 30 errors a season for the 3 years prior to this year, right? 27 in 150 games in 2002 31 in 155 games in 2003 24 in 131 games in 2004

Then if they land Lofton too, they will have two very mediocre number #1 hitters. See, that's what I mean. I want to see some vision from the Cubs front office and all I ever see is a bad case of myopia. So besides Damon, who's a good leadoff man. Jmo but Furcal >> Walker, who some think is fabulous. Altogether, the pickins is pretty thin, and Anaheim, St. Louis, Houston and the White Sox have done alright w/out major obper's in the 1 & 2 spots. And if you have stellar pitching (which each of the teams you mentioned had this year), you can get away with a not so good OBP at the top of the order. The Cubs were supposed to have a good pitching staff. Until Wood can go a full season healthy, Prior can go a full season without getting injured, Maddux learns to keep the ball in the ball park and the bullpen controls leads they inherit, we will need better OBP guys at the top of the order. Imagine how good some of those teams would have been with great pitching and better OBP at the top of the order. But who's out there?? Furcal's .348 obp and great speed makes him above average. Of course, I probably put more value into speed than some. I like Furcal, don't get me wrong. He would be a decent OBP at the top of the order, as well as speed. I'm not saying the Cubs shouldn't entertain bringing him here. My issue is if you let Nomar and Walker take a hike and Furcal elects to stay in Atlanta, you have nothing. Now you have a hole in CF, RF, SS, SP and 2nd with nothing but minor leaguers as trade chips and not much else on the free agent market if Furcal and Giles stay home. I highly doubt Hendry will let both go w/out one major replacement in place. He seems like a pretty conservative guy, so I doubt he makes a big gamble. I think this is the part you are missing entirely. You can't just sit on Walker and Nomar. Once the World Series is over, every player that is a free agent will file. The Cubs will need to make a decision on whether they wish to retain those players services long before Furcal and Lofton and Millwood and Giles become available to discuss a contract with the Cubs. Nomar has said he wants to stay in Chicago. Walker is cheap. They are in house guarantees to return if you want them. Let them walk and go after Furcal instead, you can't go back. You can't lose out on Furcal and simply decide to bring back Nomar. At a certain point, the earliest the Cubs could even talk to Nomar again is May 1st. I'm sure Nomar would prefer to have employment long before then. And why would he want to return when Chicago turned away from him when he was already there? That's why these are gambles that are too risky to make. If the Cubs don't keep Nomar and Walker around, I am extremely worried about how this offseason will play out.

What's an even bigger shame is that Ronnie Cedeno only has 80 major league at bats. He was called up April 22nd. He was sent down when the Cubs signed Enrique Wilson. 80 at bats is really not enough to have any idea whether he can hit at the major league level. 80 at bats isn't enough for opposing teams to evaluate what Cedeno's weaknesses are. He could be a bust. I hope not, but after the debacle that was this year, I'm not sure the Cubs should pin their hopes on a guy to be the everyday SS or 2b when he has 80 big league at bats to his name. That's on Dusty and Hendry. Furcal, to me, is a priority this offseason. Giles 1st, Furcal 2nd. But, those priorities still fall behind resigning Nomar and Walker. If you end up with Nomar, Furcal, Walker, Lee and Aramis in your infield, at that time you have a trade chip in Lee, Aramis or Walker. Probably not Lee, but Aramis and Walker could certainly lure a decent OF in the event you can't get Giles. Nomar plays 3b and you still have Cedeno as protection if Nomar gets hurt. If you keep Aramis and trade Walker, you have Nomar to play 2nd and Cedeno to back him up.

If the Cubs get a 1-2 that averages out to .350, they should be fine, especially if they have great speed like Furcal & Lofton. The Cub pitching is due to bounce back, but they still need to sign Milwood. But, getting Furcal, Lofton and Millwood hinges entirely upon their desire to come to Chicago and play. Furcal could accept less to stay in Atlanta, where he's a shoe in to compete in the post season every year. Or, he could sign a bigger contract to play for a team that makes the postseason once every decade. Millwood is already being offered a contract to stay in Cleveland. Cleveland has a lot of young talent. Lofton is probably the easiest sign of this group. But, he'll be another year older and he was basically a platoon this year. Nomar and Walker are inhouse and easier signings than any of the above listed guys. Walker can be signed and traded if Nomar is signed and you do lure Furcal. The moment Hendry gives his undivided attention to Furcal, Nomar will look elsewhere. When that happens, Hendry had better get Furcal, otherwise it could be a long offseason and an even longer 2006 baseball season.

And if you let Nomar and Walker hit the road, where is the inspiration for Giles to want to leave a team that made the playoffs this year to go to a team that appears to be rebuilding more than adding onto the talent they already had.

Then if they land Lofton too, they will have two very mediocre number #1 hitters. See, that's what I mean. I want to see some vision from the Cubs front office and all I ever see is a bad case of myopia. So besides Damon, who's a good leadoff man. Jmo but Furcal >> Walker, who some think is fabulous. Altogether, the pickins is pretty thin, and Anaheim, St. Louis, Houston and the White Sox have done alright w/out major obper's in the 1 & 2 spots. And if you have stellar pitching (which each of the teams you mentioned had this year), you can get away with a not so good OBP at the top of the order. The Cubs were supposed to have a good pitching staff. Until Wood can go a full season healthy, Prior can go a full season without getting injured, Maddux learns to keep the ball in the ball park and the bullpen controls leads they inherit, we will need better OBP guys at the top of the order. Imagine how good some of those teams would have been with great pitching and better OBP at the top of the order. But who's out there?? Furcal's .348 obp and great speed makes him above average. Of course, I probably put more value into speed than some. I like Furcal, don't get me wrong. He would be a decent OBP at the top of the order, as well as speed. I'm not saying the Cubs shouldn't entertain bringing him here. My issue is if you let Nomar and Walker take a hike and Furcal elects to stay in Atlanta, you have nothing. Now you have a hole in CF, RF, SS, SP and 2nd with nothing but minor leaguers as trade chips and not much else on the free agent market if Furcal and Giles stay home.

Angels has .340 and .333 OBP in the top two spots. Houston had .316 and .323. CHW had .341 and .335 STL had .369 and .332 Cubs had .299 and .317 I'd say only Houston of the group you mentioned had BAD OBP in the top two spots in the line up.

Then if they land Lofton too, they will have two very mediocre number #1 hitters. See, that's what I mean. I want to see some vision from the Cubs front office and all I ever see is a bad case of myopia. So besides Damon, who's a good leadoff man. Jmo but Furcal >> Walker, who some think is fabulous. Altogether, the pickins is pretty thin, and Anaheim, St. Louis, Houston and the White Sox have done alright w/out major obper's in the 1 & 2 spots. And if you have stellar pitching (which each of the teams you mentioned had this year), you can get away with a not so good OBP at the top of the order. The Cubs were supposed to have a good pitching staff. Until Wood can go a full season healthy, Prior can go a full season without getting injured, Maddux learns to keep the ball in the ball park and the bullpen controls leads they inherit, we will need better OBP guys at the top of the order. Imagine how good some of those teams would have been with great pitching and better OBP at the top of the order.