BigbadB

Ryan Howard?

My logic is that wins really have very little factor in determining a pitcher's value. Let's go back and review Matt Clement some more. In 2003, Clement went 14-12 with a 4.11 ERA. ERA+ was 103. In 2004, Clement went 9-13 with a 3.68 ERA. ERA+ was 123. In 2005, Clement went 13-6 with a 4.57 ERA. ERA+ was 96. Clement pitched for a really good Boston team in 2005. His record reflects that. 2005 Run Support for Clement starts= 6.02 2004 Run Support for Clement starts= 3.86 2003 Run Support for Clement starts= 4.24 There is definitely a correlation between wins and run support. Run support is completely out of the pitcher's control. But, without good run support, his record will suffer. With excellent run support, the pitcher will have a much better record.

The flag was out so early, that I didn't get myself very excited about the runback. I didn't see the flag, so I was way too excited about a non-touchdown.

The only time I got upset with Grossman yesterday was the fumble. He needs to learn to just eat the ball when he gets in trouble. I would have been much happier with a punt downfield over a short TD by the Seahawks. Way to go Bears! Two more games to go!

It's amusing to see LA turned into a Charger town this past season. Damn. Wife isn't ready yet. Luckily, the bar is only 5 minutes away. Poor LA with no NFL teams. Sounds like the Chargers plan on staying somewhere in San Diego, though National City, Chula Vista and Oceanside (the bidders) are not better options than just building a new stadium right next to Jack Murph....err, Qualcomm Stadium.

It's just about Bloody Mary time at my favorite watering hole and big screens du jour. LET'S GO BEARS! I'll celebrate with you all sometime after the Charger game. It will be Charger fan crazy at this place, so it will be hard to leave.

I always like to use this example to disprove the value of wins. In 2004, Brandon Webb went 7-16 with an ERA+ of 124 in 208 IP. In 2004, Russ Ortiz went 15-9 with an ERA+ of 104 in 204 IP. Brandon Webb ERA that year: 3.59 Russ Ortiz ERA that year: 4.13 Brandon played on one of the worst teams in the 21st century. Ortiz played on a very good scoring Atlanta team. If you didn't have the names listed, which players stats would you rather have on your team? Also, Russ Ortiz is a 20 game winner, Brandon Webb is not. Heck, Russ Ortiz' 15-9 is almost as good as Carlos Zambrano's 16-8. Carlos had an ERA+ of 165 that year. Wins are close, but that's the only thing close about them. Heck again, Jason Marquis won 14 games last year with a 6.02 ERA and a 73 ERA+. Carlos Zambrano, Kerry Wood AND Mark Prior all would be 20 game winners at this stage of their careers if they played for even a semi-decent team at scoring runs. That same year, Greg Maddux was 16-11 with a 4.02 ERA. Matt Clement was 9-13 with a 3.68 ERA. Matt had a better ERA+ as well. Maddux gave up 4 earned runs or more in 12 games. Clement gave up 4 earned runs or more in 9 games. Clement gave up 2 runs or less in 15 starts. Maddux gave up 2 runs or less in 17 starts. Given this information, is there any possible way to take this information and come to any conclusion whatsoever that one pitcher would end the season 16-11, and the other would end up 9-13? Given this information, can you look at the wins and losses between the two players, and determine that the guy who won 16 games was clearly the better pitcher that year? I sure can't.

Who do you have starting at Iowa? Cedeno? Yep. I'm in agreement with that. He obviously needs more seasoning in the minors. Sitting on the bench as a part time player on the Cubs roster won't offer him that.

Yes, some of these guys are suitable bench players. It's the extensive list that's concerning. As well as the playing time granted to some of these players. This is a big market team. They can afford quality starters and quality back ups. When a starter gets hurt, they shouldn't have to resort to Rey Ordonez at SS. They shouldn't have to resort to a 3b by committee. They shouldn't go into a season with a platoon of Hollandsworth/Dubois. The lack of development from the farm system is why this team is constantly looking at guys like Tomas Perez and Rey Ordonez when a starter goes down. I'm not opposed to having a bench guy like John Mabry. But, when your entire bench consists of John Mabry, Freddie Bynum, Angel Pagan, Neifi Perez and Henry Blanco, and John Mabry is your best bench option, the team is going to have serious problems.

Nice tackle, but where are the Gators in that picture? :D

Bryant Gumbel. Joe Morgan would be my pick of the names listed, however.

I don't think Baldelli is really all that cheap, either. At least not cheap for Tampa. But, teams continue to be dumb enough to cave in to the demands for these guys. Last year, Tampa got stuck with Huff and Lugo because of their asking price. At the trade deadline, someone was dumb enough to offer up young talent to get them and met Tampa's demands. Therefore, I don't see Tampa coming down on their asking price anytime soon for Baldelli.

And as I said before, I can do the same thing with the outfield. Tom Goodwin, Troy O'Leary, Doug Glanville, Calvin Murray, Todd Hollandsworth, Jeromy Burnitz, Jody Gerut, Matt Lawton, Angel Pagan, Michael Restovich and Marquis Grissom. The Cubs have had more than their fair share of these guys that shouldn't be anything more than a NRI. This is a prime example of how horrible it is to not develop position players through your farm system.

I meant to say out of MLB completely. Rey Ordonez has not logged a single major league at bat since his stint with the Cubs. Neither has Tony Womack. Alex Gonzalez retired and is just now making a comeback. But, he was our everyday starting shortstop in 2003. After that, he was a part time starter at best on some of the smallest market teams in MLB. Enrique Wilson hasn't played a major league game since his stint with the Cubs.

What does that have to do with my post? I listed those players and stated that the alarmist reaction is justified. Could Tomas Perez end up being more than just a spring training invite? Oh yes, he most definitely could. By the way, that list of players accumulated well over 3000 at bats as Chicago Cubs during the Hendry/Dusty era. We, as fans, are supposed to support Hendry for making the same mistakes that other GM's have already made? A strange pattern I see is that Hendry makes these same mistakes once these bad players were well past their prime. Many of those players on my list were out of baseball completely after their stint with the Cubs.

Matt Peterson. What are your feelings about Pittsburgh this year, Jake? Bay, Bautista, Nady would make for a pretty good outfield. If they can get LaRoche somehow, the offense should be pretty good this year.

Jose Macias, Neifi Perez, Damian Jackson, Enrique Wilson, Rey Ordonez, Tony Womack, Jerry Hairston Jr., Cesar Izturis, Freddie Bynum, Ramon Martinez, Alex Gonzalez, Lenny Harris, Jose Hernandez and Augie Ojeda is a quick list of guys who got major league at bats during the Hendry/Dusty era and should never have been anything more than spring training invites. Shall I list the outfielders next or has a point been made that the alarmist responses are justified?

Who do you have starting at Iowa? Cedeno?

I remember when Wade Miller and Kerry Wood were 2 of the most feared pitchers in the league. 2 of the absolute best young pitchers climbing through the ranks. They reminded me a lot of each other. Big Texas guys that could really bring it. High K rates. If each of the Cub starting pitchers were as good as they have been in past years, 1) this rotation would be unaffordable and 2) they would challenge the best rotation of any team, ever. Zambrano, Prior, Wood, Miller, Lilly/Marquis/Hill etc... But, they can still be a good rotation, but there are a lot of ifs that need to be answered.

Can we really be sure his OPS has bottomed out? I think it's reasonable that it could get worse.

I would like to make a few corrections regarding Dempster. He got plenty of work last year. The problem was it was sporadic and rarely was it ever to actually protect a lead. I'm pulling for him to do well this year. The pen should be a strength with a better starting rotation.

Wasn't Joe Garragiola Jr. one of the primary cash cows during the Colangelo days?

I recall that the Cubs did have interest, but I also believe that was before Washington changed their tune about wanting to trade him so badly. Washington was ready to move him at one point for a pack of trading cards. Then, when teams showed interest, they were asking for all the actual players inside that pack of trading cards. This market has been really ridiculous. What happened to the good old days of fair trades?

I think steroids impacted the game. But, the time frame also coincides with "juiced" baseballs, smaller and offensive oriented parks opening up, expansion in each league, which drained the quality of pitching, etc... I also think there was more focus on "beefing up". Advancements in physical conditioning, dietary supplements (legal or illegal) and the demand of power hitting in the game probably also contributed to the increase.

Product of the ridiculous market price this offseason? I agree that a lot of work obviously still needs to be done. If Tampa goes into the season with all those outfielders and that crappy starting rotation, I will not feel sorry for them. LA and Phily have too many starters. And it makes absolutely ZERO sense to be looking for someone to replace Jones in CF, unless the replacement is BETTER than Jones.