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nilodnayr

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Everything posted by nilodnayr

  1. nilodnayr
    I have a feeling you aren't going to be the last to copy and paste that, but congrats on being the first.
  2. nilodnayr
    Did you wake up first? Because thats the key. Dammit. Yeah, you have to learn that one the hard way.
  3. nilodnayr
    Ohh, I absolutely agree. When we are talking about K rate, thats not really going to be subject to luck, which is why I didn't use that word. Pizza Cutter has K/PA exceeding .5 r squared at 150 BF, so Shark is over that, but still, there were quite a few zeros after that decimal point!!!
  4. nilodnayr
    this is what i was going to say. you've talked about him briefly in the past, and i'd be very interested to read a more fleshed-out analysis. I'll hold off on him until he gets a few more innings under his belt in AAA. Although before entering AAA he Kd 11.6% batters he faced. Right now he's K-ing 26.3%. The probability of this happening, assuming he was an 11.6% K-er is a whopping .000000517029921098811. that seems low :D But seriously, due to random statistical variation, over only 37.1 innings, I'd have to think that even I had a greater probability of K'ing that many guys over that small sample size.
  5. nilodnayr
    How about a study of teams over/underacheiving their pythags and finding correlations to other stats, bullpen ERA, defensive metrics, defensive efficiency, luck (ie eBABIP in relation to BABIP), sacrifices, etc. I've always wondered if theres actually something a team can control to be "more efficient" at winning games. I also liked the paper you wrote last year showing "power rankings" normalizing for strength of schedule using Markov chains. Could you run it again? Also, you could use that to accurately define how hard teams schedules are going to be from here on out (with maybe regressing to pythag and adjustments for home field advantage, but I'll leave that up to you). Theres lots of talk about how the Brewers have it really easy, etc. It'd be nice to know how accurate those observations are.
  6. nilodnayr
    He might be too expensive for the Rays.
  7. nilodnayr
    How would that work for a monitary standpoint? The jays want to move Burnett to someone willing to pick up a significant chunk of his salary. Hes making 10 mil I believe. Meanwhile, Marquis is making 7 or 8 mil, so I dont see the Jays motivation there, unless we plan on picking up a big chunk of AJs salary plus Marquis'. It would work because you appear to hate Ronny Cedeno.
  8. nilodnayr
    I don't know. McCutheon is probably ready. Over 400 AAA at bats. But the Pirates may not want to start the arbitration clock on the just 21 year old. McCutheon will most definitely be at the ML level in 2009, though, if I had my guess. Steven Pearce may be a guy that gets a shot first. He's an OF/1B and the Pirates need to see if he can hit ML pitching enough to be an everyday 1b next year. Yeah, the smart thing would be to call up Pearce and then they can bring McCutchen up in September if they feel like it.
  9. nilodnayr
    Did you wake up first? Because thats the key.
  10. nilodnayr
    For some reason I've ignored that site. I shall no longer do that.
  11. nilodnayr
    HA, I didn't even catch that. Hilarious.
  12. nilodnayr
    Baseball Prospectus has it on the individual player pages. If you're looking for league leader type stuff and you don't have a BP subscription, Hardball Times has Gross Production Average(GPA) which is similar(although I'm not sure if it's more like EqA or wOBA). Is wOBA published anywhere? Tango puts some stuff on FTPs somewhere, but does he put wOBA and if so, whats the link?
  13. nilodnayr
    Heres a thread about that very subject... http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=72825
  14. nilodnayr
    Welcome and see ya...first post ripping on the majority of the board. Where's O_O?
  15. nilodnayr
    I might be the only person who still has Rickie Weeks on their fantasy team. And yes I started him tonight. No you aren't :D And despite his suckiness, Weeks is the 15th best 2nd baseman according to yahoo rankings. He has an incredible number of runs, which just happens to be my biggest need. And also like 18 million trades for every other decent 2b in the league I've proposed have been rejected.
  16. nilodnayr
    Woah Woah Woah...wasnt that just Steve Phillips ripping on the Mets for trading Kazmir for Zambrano, when in fact HE was the one who made that trade?!?!?!?!? He said "the mets" and "they", not "I".
  17. nilodnayr
    Seems fairly even.
  18. nilodnayr
    Is there some conspiracy against Cedeno on here??? WTF?
  19. nilodnayr
    I suggested that a while back, before we got Harden, trade for Burnett and Eck, and people thought that it was the craziest thing theyd ever heard. Theres a lot worse you could do at the end of your bench then David Eckstein, like, oh I dont know, Ronny Cedeno. Also, the way it sounds, Toronto has wanted Eckstein gone for a whil now, so I bet if we offered Cedeno plus a few mid level prospects, we could get him. How again is Eckstein better than Cedeno?
  20. nilodnayr
    Stay of execution for Colvin, he'll be off next time.
  21. nilodnayr
    Good call...according to the transactions on MLB.com for that day, no other 40 man or DL changes had to be made. So I guess its completely fine. Show you what I know about transactions in MLB. However, I see very little reality in the idea when Hughes is one of the guys the Yankees are banking their future on. Yeah, I said they were stretches, but when you have a 200M+ team, you are in 3rd place, and you have Rasner and Ponson in the rotation, you might get desperate. And its not like Lilly is some schlub, he had an amazing season last year and after a brutal start, has done pretty well since. I don't know it just seems like the Yanks aren't as high on Hughes and Kennedy as they were.
  22. nilodnayr
    Is he going to the Olympic team?
  23. nilodnayr
    This was discussed a bit last year, I don't think any consensus was reached, but I preferred his arm in LF, because I believe he gets more chances out there as more balls go to LF than RF. RF is only preferred because of the throw to 3rd, and I think the fact that there's more chances in LF negates that. I would add that in Wrigley, LF is much easier to play than RF.
  24. nilodnayr
    Good call...according to the transactions on MLB.com for that day, no other 40 man or DL changes had to be made. So I guess its completely fine.
  25. nilodnayr
    Hughes is on the 60 day DL with a rib fracture. Hence, "for a player who is currently injured"...contrary to popular belief, you CAN trade a player who is on the DL. Are you sure you can do so for the 60-day DL? I'm not, but I'd imagine that with it's 40 man protections there may be a difference. Hmm, that one I'm not sure of, but I would assume you could. Maybe the only thing would be that the receiving team would have to have a spot for him on the 40 man roster? Just a guess. Thats the only restriction I could think of. But I guess that would involve being transferred from the 60 day DL to the 15 day DL, which you cant do. I guess they could make you activate him from the DL and then you could put him back on the 15 day DL. All in all, you might have to jump through more hoops, but I'm sure it can be done.
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