nilodnayr

Use of past tense for the race for Schmidt and Meche?

Schmidt, Soriano and Church would keep me from getting too angry. co-sign EDIT: But Mr. Church would not care for me as a Cubs fan b/c I am a Jew and thus destined for damnation. Actually I am Cubs fan and therefore already in pergatory, so Mr. Church has little to worry about. Actually he would care about you more because he wants you to be saved.

Funny... a few weeks ago, I suggested 3/24 and got laughed at for "overpaying." It is definitely overpaying, whether you suggested it or Boston offered it. ...or perhaps there are some on this message board who don't have a firm grasp on the current market situation? I dont know who laughed at you but the rumors from the very beginning of the offseason were 4/32, so I don't see how 3/24 was that earth shattering of a prediction. Considering the SS market next offseason, this is a very very good move if they dont want to use Pedoria there.

I admit I'm kind of surprised to see that. I still prefer him to Soriano, though. Based on the explanation I would guess that his projection for the cubs would have been significantly better than that. If he ends up putting up those numbers and Boston doesnt make it out of the first round, there are going to be riots over there.

Unfortunately, that just reeks of "signing on the west coast" to me.

By the way, doesn't this sort of make sense? If the guy is pitching well, that means he's getting a greater percentage of guys out. When you do that, you'll leave more people on base. Chris Carpenter's LOB% was average to below-average while he was on the Blue Jays. The last three years, it's been well above the league average, and well above his other years. Guess that's just luck too. Depends on if hes leaving the guys on base or if a reliever is coming in. Anyone know how to decipher the Baseball Reference Game Log Situation Out?

his 05 was horrible, I assume you mean 06 when he posted a 109 ERA+

Agreed. care to back this up? His only two good years (02 and 04) he had BABIPs 70 points and 40 points lower than his LD% would have predicted as well as LOB% higher than league average and well above his other years. OK, so that suggests that during the two years that he was significantly above-average (120 ERA+ each year), he was lucky. So again - where is the evidence that he sucks? I don't necessarily think he "sucks" but is around the average to slightly below-average ranking. We could do a lot better than Lilly (Schmidt, Jennings), but we could also do worse than Lilly (Meche). If you combine that all with his propensity to give up the longball, pitching half his games in wrigley, and paying him 10-11M a year...he sucks.

Agreed. care to back this up? His only two good years (02 and 04) he had BABIPs 70 points and 40 points lower than his LD% would have predicted as well as LOB% higher than league average and well above his other years.

Considering how crazy the market is right now, you're not going to get a guy like Jacque Jones for $5M per year unless it's via a trade. Nixon and Gonzalez probably aren't going to sign for a contract significantly more than Jacque's.

I'm feeling the pain. I bet if you were at their hotel you would be having a blast :-). If nothing else you could just sit at the bar and harass every GM that walked by :wink: Except the GMs stay in their suites for the majority of the time (they have beer delivered to them).

Not really...two words...Frank Robinson

I wouldnt lose control of my bladder or anything if we got Ward, but he'd be a decent guy for the bench. He destroyed righties last year and put up 800ish OPS against them the two previous years. I don't think hes the answer to all of life's questions, but hes definitely a significant ugrade from Mabry.

Or at least one year. I think a lot of it has to do with them wanting to be able to sign or trade for a good starter and not wanting Carp to feel undervalued if the guy makes more than him. maybe that is the case and they know a surgically repaired wing can't last much longer throwing all those curveballs and the majority of the contract will be paid by insurance anyway. I think that this is a good deal by the Cardinals. They are looking at the market this year and saying, "This guy will cost us a fortune when he can be a free agent. By negotiating an extension now we have more leverage because we can walk away from the negotiations and he is still under contract." As for injury concerns, he has thrown approximately 645 innings in the last 3 years. He is in his early thirties so I don't think it is terribly likely that he will suddenly revert back to injury problems. When this contract ends in 6 years (2012) he will be in his upper 30's and while probably not winning Cy Young awards is unlikely to be a "bad" pitcher. While he may be somewhat overpaid for the last 1-2 years, I think this is a very good risk for STL to take. That's why, as a Cub fan, I hate this deal. :cry: The injury concern is that he is one of the very very few pitchers that has come back from the shoulder surgery he had performed on him. He has recently been healthy and pitched very well, but there is no precident to how long his reconstructed shoulder will be able to last.

Me like. Co-sign...for both players.

However, there are two other Jacque Jones' who are FAs (Nixon and Gonzalez). Teams don't have to give up any players for them and they will make relatively similar $.

Obviously overpaying is going to be necessary, its the fact of the current market. Hendry should just overpay wisely. Overpaying wisely would net Schmidt, Padilla, and JD Drew. Overpaying unwisely would net Soriano, Lilly, and Meche.

Woohoo!!! Per Rotoworld

Baseball America compared him to Glavine. Topprospectalert.com had him as 51 (in terms of pitching prospects) in 2005 For comparions sake Pinto was 50, Marshall was not ranked.

He's better than any of the 2nd tier FA's and he'll only cost 5.5M. I dont know of anyone better we could get for Jones. He's coming off of a career year and he's way under market value, I would think we could get more for him, but then the pitching market is very tight as well, and if it's a choice between this trade and Lilly or Meche for 4/44 or up, I'm taking this trade. This trade is a lateral movement more than anything. We're not any better after making it than we were before. It really doesn't help us and is not improving us significantly - if at all. I thought that, but whatever OF we get to fill the spot is gonna cost less and have less years than what Jennings would on the market, so while we haven't improved, we've at least saved some money and avoided an ugly 4 year contract to either Meche or Lilly. But when we sign Jennings to a 4/40 extension it will become a worse than lateral move.

I thing you are getting off on a tangent No need to be so obtuse, eh? :wink: Don't be acute.

I've taken the liberty of rearranging the last three years of Marquis and Comparing them to Jennings. Marquis is always first ERA+ 113 127 103 94 73 92 K:BB 1.97 1.67 1.45 1.21 1.28 1.32 Not to mention the supposed error in Marquis mechanics that was found.

Michaels, yes it was a bad year. Most stat sites give you the option of seeing career stats, you should check it out. Wilkerson has had injuries, though I never really wanted him. My question is why would you bring those guys up in a discussion about Church? Look at his stats, Michaels and Wilkerson are not a factor in his stats. I know what career stats are thanks. The reason I brought them up is because they all fit the mold of guys who are entering their prime with decent power and high-OBP who are somewhat under the radar that this board falls in love with. However, both went out and stunk last year. I'm asking what makes Church different from those guys. Also, Michaels never had a full-time role for a whole season (never had 300 ABs even). Same with Church. I apologize for getting catty, I just dont see the connection. A couple guys who have some similarities to Church that had bad years doesnt really mean much to me. Plus Wilkerson has been injured since 05. Part of the attraction in Church is also that he is cheap in terms of salary and talent that it would take to acquire.

No, his ERA+ was 120 in 2002 and 2004. It was 109 in 2006. I'm stupid, the rest of the argument still stands. You should feel even worse considering I'm drunk and caught that. :wink: I am shamed :)

My fear is that the cubs now sign Jennings to an extension. And as I've said before Jennings is the starting pitcher version of DeRosa. Whereas my hope is that the Cubs get a good year out of him, he goes FA and the Cubs get "A" level comp for him to replace Marmol as a prospect. I hope for this as well, but have a feeling it is unlikely. If this is Hendry's intention then I am in favor of this trade. Kinda weird that the only way I like the trade is if we let the guy we are trading for walk after a year. :)