nilodnayr

1-1) Albert Pujols 1-2) Jose Reyes 1-3) Johan Santana 1-4) Alfonso Soriano 1-5) Alex Rodriguez 1-6) Carlos Beltran 1-7) Ryan Howard 1-8) Miguel Cabrera 1-9) Carl Crawford 1-10) Chase Utley 1-11) Derrek Lee 1-12) Chris Carpenter 2-1) David Wright 2-2) Lance Berkman 2-3) Grady Sizemore 2-4) David Ortiz 2-5) Vladimir Guerrero 2-6) Manny Ramirez 2-7) Mark Teixeira 2-8) Travis Hafner 2-9) Derek Jeter 2-10) Carlos Lee 2-11) Matt Holliday 2-12) Carlos Zambrano 3-1) Jake Peavy 3-2) Aramis Ramirez 3-3) Justin Morneau 3-4) Joe Mauer 3-5) Paul Konerko 3-6) Miguel Tejada 3-7) Jason Bay 3-8) Hanley Ramirez 3-9) Jimmy Rollins 3-10) Roy Halladay 3-11) Brandon Webb 3-12) Dan Haren 4-1) Garrett Atkins 4-2) Ichiro 4-3) Vernon Wells 4-4) Brian McCann 4-5) Roy Oswalt 4-6) Felix Hernandez 4-7) Ben Sheets 4-8) Bobby Abreu 4-9) Jeremy Bonderman 4-10) Andruw Jones 4-11) Victor Martinez 4-12) Jermaine Dye 5-1) Michael Young 5-2) Robby Cano 5-3) Rafael Furcal 5-4) Francisco Rodriguez 5-5) Bill Hall 5-6) Cole Hamels 5-7) Brian Roberts 5-8) Joe Nathan 5-9) Adam Dunn 5-10) Ryan Zimmerman 5-11) Carlos Guillen 5-12) Chone Figgins 6-1) Daisuke Matsuzaka 6-2) Jim Thome 6-3) John Lackey 6-3) B.J. Ryan 6-4) Carlos Delgado 6-6) Billy Wagner 6-7) Rocco Baldelli 6-8) Rich Hill 6-9) Troy Glaus 6-10) Justin Verlander 6-11) Aaron Harang 6-12) John Smoltz 7-1)Ian Kinsler 7-2) Johnny Damon 7-3) Mariano Rivera 7-4) Jered Weaver 7-5) Huston Street 7-6) Brett Myers 7-7) Matt Cain 7-8) 7-9) Curt Schilling I say we just leave the 7-8 pick open and whenever Wolf gets back, he can jump in a chose whoever is still on the board.

How ironic...less than 2 hours until the 24 hour mark. T-minus 7 minutes...anyone have a problem with me enforcing the 24 hour rule and making my pick?

How ironic...less than 2 hours until the 24 hour mark.

As usual, a national "expert" is about 2 weeks behind. Finley is out of play now that Soriano agreed to play CF and the Cubs signed Floyd. Hendry said after the Finley signing that he was now done with FA signings for this year. An easy mistake to make when talking about the two of them, but talk about a Freudian slip :D. Close enough; they both begin with "F." :lol: FFFFFFUUUUUDGE

So you're raising cain about it. :lol: Too bad this is a message board so he isn't ABEL to do so :lol:

Naturally that's true, but that's not the point I was making. My point is that despite his success as a reliever, Wainwright has yet to prove himself a capable starter, and therefore his immediate placement in that 2-3 spot in the rotation makes for risky business. Shush, let baseball7897 pick Wainwright in the next round of our draft.

Exactly, so I guess technically they would be paying that $ over 6 years, but Helton would only be playing for 5 of them. The mention of the six years in the article refers to paying Helton, not to Helton playing. The full article gives more details on the money per year breakdown and the buyout. So I don't see where there's a mistake about his contract in the article. Sorry, just read Vance's quotes...i've hit my limit on reading articles on trades that possibly/aren't/might happen later.

God, I actually think he'd be the best non-Jacque/non-Soriano solution. Maybe Sori would move down in the order for him. Or at the very least he would be a better #2 hitter than DeRosa. Per wiki

And there goes one of the two pitchers I would have taken over Dunn.

Looks pretty good, but I am weary of Rocco's BABIP being 62 points higher than expected last year and the health of your pitchers. Not that I like my team any more, but I'm just saying. OF-Crawford 1B-Papi SS-Rollins C-McCann OF-Dunn RP-Ryan IMO, most starters have been over drafted or drafted appropriately and I just couldnt get in on it because of where my pick was or that I left myself without enough power and had to take Dunn in the 5th. Interestingly enough, the two starters I would have taken instead of him are still on the board. I also drafted McCann selfishly because in my real draft Im going to take a much lower tier catcher, but wanted see where you all would pick the ones I have my eyes on.

Exactly, so I guess technically they would be paying that $ over 6 years, but Helton would only be playing for 5 of them.

Most definitely...I was happy to get in on the front end of it as I think there are 4 elite closers and was happy to get one of them. Unfortunately for everyone else, they are all off the board.

Furthermore... You'd think at least the Denver Post could get his contract right...hes only signed for another 5 years, the 6th is a club option for 23M that will surely be decline. If this deal falls apart over Delcarmen or Hansen, that would be completely ridiculous. A really good point is to look at the FA class at the corners next year and the Red Sox farm system at the corners. Both are barren (assuming ARod doesn't opt out). I would have pulled the trigger.

Because Helton's OPS has decreased by 100 points each of the last two years, going from uber-elite to really really good. However, his OPS is still going to be about 150 points higher than Lowell. Thats about the difference between Izturis and Tejada. If the cubs ended up adding Tejada and subtracting Izturis, what do you think the appropriate reaction would be. Actual differences in OPS between Izturis and Tejada from 2001 through 2006: 2001 - .135 2002 - .306 2003 - .211 2004 - .183 2005 - .240 2006 - .264 Only once since they broke into the league has Izturis been within 150 points of OPS to Tejada, and that was in a season where Izturis only had 140 PA. As much as I would love to think Izturis could pull within 150 points of OPS to Tejada, the only way he does that is if he puts up better than normal-numbers before getting badly injured and limiting his playing time (which I would like as well)... while hoping Tejada has a down year. (Sorry, couldn't pass up an opportunity to stress again how utterly inept Izturis is with the bat.) The past is all well and good, but I'm talking about moving forward. I looked at my PECOTA download updated 1/14. PECOTA projected the difference at 156, although since that has increased to 183.. Other projection systems I did not take into consideration. Bill James (209), CHONE (162), I'm ignoring Marcel because its crap, ZiPS (194). As far as Helton vs. Lowell...Bill James (185), CHONE (108), ZiPS (142). PECOTA at the time of my download was at 123, now at 76 (woah, thats a huge difference mostly attributable to a downgrade of Helton). All projections say Tejada/Izturis is a greater difference, but they vary by degree. James by 26, CHONE by 54, ZiPS by 52, the PECOTA I based the claim off of by 33, and now by 107 (lets average those to 70). So, lets say that my comparison of Tejada/Izturis to Helton/Lowell was overblown by about 50 OPS. Sounds fair to me.

1-1) Albert Pujols 1-2) Jose Reyes 1-3) Johan Santana 1-4) Alfonso Soriano 1-5) Alex Rodriguez 1-6) Carlos Beltran 1-7) Ryan Howard 1-8) Miguel Cabrera 1-9) Carl Crawford 1-10) Chase Utley 1-11) Derrek Lee 1-12) Chris Carpenter 2-1) David Wright 2-2) Lance Berkman 2-3) Grady Sizemore 2-4) David Ortiz 2-5) Vladimir Guerrero 2-6) Manny Ramirez 2-7) Mark Teixeira 2-8) Travis Hafner 2-9) Derek Jeter 2-10) Carlos Lee 2-11) Matt Holliday 2-12) Carlos Zambrano 3-1) Jake Peavy 3-2) Aramis Ramirez 3-3) Justin Morneau 3-4) Joe Mauer 3-5) Paul Konerko 3-6) Miguel Tejada 3-7) Jason Bay 3-8) Hanley Ramirez 3-9) Jimmy Rollins 3-10) Roy Halladay 3-11) Brandon Webb 3-12) Dan Haren 4-1) Garrett Atkins 4-2) Ichiro 4-3) Vernon Wells 4-4) Brian McCann 4-5) Roy Oswalt 4-6) Felix Hernandez 4-7) Ben Sheets 4-8) Bobby Abreu 4-9) Jeremy Bonderman 4-10) Andruw Jones 4-11) Victor Martinez 4-12) Jermaine Dye 5-1) Michael Young 5-2) Robby Cano 5-3) Rafael Furcal 5-4) Francisco Rodriguez 5-5) Bill Hall 5-6) Cole Hamels 5-7) Brian Roberts 5-8) Joe Nathan 5-9) Adam Dunn 5-10) Ryan Zimmerman 5-11) Carlos Guillen 5-12) Chone Figgins 6-1) Daisuke Matsuzaka 6-2) Jim Thome 6-3) John Lackey 6-3) B.J. Ryan

Yay, my turn. Sorry, but y'all are going to have to wait a couple hours... my list is at home, but I can bet its going to be a pitcher.

There is an interesting trend with this draft...5 of the 13 starting pitchers have been taken on the 10 wrap around picks (not counting the #1 pick). And at every wrap except for Vance's second a pitcher has been taken with one of the two picks (only after Vance chose 2 pitchers on his first wrap around). Expand that to 3 wrap arounds (ie 10, 11, 12 and 13, 14, 15) and you capture another 3 of the starters taken. And of the remaining 5 starters taken, 4 of them ocurred in the mini starter run midway through the 4th round. Just some interesting psychology there. Seems as though people have their favorite pitcher and are afraid to lose him whether it be because they dont have another pick in a long time or that he will be taken in a pitching run. Which, leads to a general feeling that so far the draft has been pitching heavy with some noticeable reaches.

When trying to adjust for park differences, ignoring a player's splits at home is the wrong road to take. You never want to ignore data, you want to adjust it. Adjust Helton's numbers at home with his home park factor and his future home park factor. For example, in 2006 according to baseball-reference's park factors, Coors played a 107 for hitters while Fenway played a 102 (there are better park factors out there for lefties, power hitters, etc). Football, basketball, and hockey teams all play on surfaces that are exactly equal in dimension, yet teams perform better at home. A lot more than just dimensions, wall height, altitude, temperature, and wind go into home vs road splits. You have to consider sleeping in your own bed, not having to travel, being with your family, being in a routine, and so on and so forth.

Per Rotoworld.. Jeez if this deal gets held up over Delcarmen or Hansen, that would be a bad move by the BoSox. BP in rating non-rookies 25 or under has those two as #9 and #10 respectively. I mean come on, they already have a future close in Lester (hoping for a full recovery), is a non-closer reliever really going to be the dealbreaker? And IMO adding Helton and subtracting Lowell puts them at a better lineup than the Yanks. Heres an approx comparison of their players by position Papi>>Giambi (50 OPS) Tek=Posada Helton>>>>Mieny (200 OPS) Pedroia< Lugo< Youk< Drew>Abreu (30 OPS) Crisp=Damon Manny>>>>Matsui (150 OPS) That ends up to about 180 OPS advantage to the BoSox (of course this is cursory and assumes 100% health/no subsitutions). I'd put Helton at a 150 OPS increase over Lowell. So basically I'm saying the lineups are fairly equal right now, Helton swings the balance definitively to the BoSox.

Any discussion about OBP and P/PA that doesnt include Youks, is ridiculous. Hell, Crisp, Pedroia, and Tek should all be at about 4 P/PA and .350 OBP. Thats your 7, 8, and 9 hitters folks.

Because Helton's OPS has decreased by 100 points each of the last two years, going from uber-elite to really really good. However, his OPS is still going to be about 150 points higher than Lowell. Thats about the difference between Izturis and Tejada. If the cubs ended up adding Tejada and subtracting Izturis, what do you think the appropriate reaction would be.

Yeah, I was really surprised he lasted to me. Especially with all of us worshipping the ground he walks on, and hits homers on, and strikes out on (three true outcome puns are the best!!!). If this weren't a 5x5 league, I would have grabbed him already. Yeah, his average is going to hurt, but given my lack of HR from 3 of the first 4 picks, I'm gonna have to suck it up and deal with it. He was 80 points under his expected BABIP last year and had a horrible end of the season. Plus hes working with Brook Jacoby who he worked with in the minors when his K rate was manageable and had a 300 average. Can't hurt. We may have to swing a trade when the draft is over. I was thinking the same...we'll just have to see how our teams shake out.

Thats why the Rox are going to have to eat half of it, duh.

Yeah, I was really surprised he lasted to me. Especially with all of us worshipping the ground he walks on, and hits homers on, and strikes out on (three true outcome puns are the best!!!). If this weren't a 5x5 league, I would have grabbed him already. Yeah, his average is going to hurt, but given my lack of HR from 3 of the first 4 picks, I'm gonna have to suck it up and deal with it. He was 80 points under his expected BABIP last year and had a horrible end of the season. Plus hes working with Brook Jacoby who he worked with in the minors when his K rate was manageable and had a 300 average. Can't hurt.

Yeah, I was really surprised he lasted to me. Especially with all of us worshipping the ground he walks on, and hits homers on, and strikes out on (three true outcome puns are the best!!!).