I agree that the division will probably come down to the two teams' relative health. But even if Prior, Wood, and Zambrano stay healthy all year, I still think the Cards finish first. I really do think they are a better team than last year. We lost Renteria and Womack, but I think they have been well replaced. Grudz is both an offensive and defensive upgrade over Womack, so we have upgraded at second. I don't think we're losing much at leadoff except speed. All we need Eckstein to do is get on base. He has a career OBP of .347, which is almost exactly what Womack put up last year, in the best year of his career, which he would be unlikely to repeat. Eckstein was the second hardest batter to strike out last year in the AL. Walker will be batting second for a full year (fingers crossed), giving us two pretty good OBP guys up before Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds. Between Eckstein and Walker, or big three will get to see a lot of pitches before they hit. Grudz will most likely take over for Renteria in the 6 or 7 spot. His career numbers are only a shade below Renteria's, so I expect similar production. And considering what a down year it was for Renteria in 2004, I don't see that lineup spot being any weaker. Molina will be an offensive upgrade over Matheny. Overall, I say our offense has improved on paper. Defense has dropped at short. Will that be offset by an improvement at second? Probably not entirely, but the upgrade at 2nd will mitigate the defensive downgrade at short. I see Eckstein's defense costing the Cards maybe 7 games off last year's total. Much has been said of the bullpen and it's being weaker. I agree that it is. However, I think a healthy Izzy (after his offseason hip surgery) will be a better closer than last year. At some poing we will get Lincoln back. We have two solid leftys in King and Myers. Jocketty will get a righty reliever at the deadline if he needs to. But I think again the negative effects in this area will be mitigated by an improvement in another, the starting pitching. Mulder is a huge upgrade over Woody, and I anticipate a comeback for Morris. He had shoulder surgery, and the reports thus far from ST are very encouraging. Likewise for Carpenter. There are plenty of question marks, most of which have to do with health. Which is why if the Cards stay healthy, I feel totally comfortable predicting 97-100 wins for them.