Diffusion

Why'd you think that? He has spent the last two years in the pitcher friendly parks of the Florida State League. And he'll spend next year in the pitcher friendly parks of the Southern League, right?

Why'd you think that?

This is exactly why I wanted to get a SS, since replacing the entire OF with quality would be next to impossible. That also would've allowed Cedeno to slide into Neifi's role, eliminating his presence. Fair enough. Personally I'd have preferred adding the best possible CF and RF we could possibly get our hands on, entrusting LF and SS to Murton and Cedeno respectively, Lee and Ramirez, obviously, and then round things out with Barrett and Walker. I don't really see the point of blocking Cedeno: in the long-run he's got the makings of a very decent shortstop, he'll have to go through the transition period at some point, and he's probably as ready for that now as he'll ever be.

Amazing facts there, Diffusion. I had been under the impression that Dusty Baker probably screwed Derrek Lee out of an MVP award, now I don't think there's any question about it. Someone should really show this stuff to Lee. Getting the team's stars angry at Dusty would be the fastest way to get rid of him. Let me just quickly do this properly... All-Time (excluding Derrek Lee's 2005) 110 or more XBH, average of 173 RBI 105 or more XBH, average of 160 RBI 100 or more XBH, average of 155 RBI 95 or more XBH, average of 152 RBI 90 or more XBH, average of 145 RBI 85 or more XBH, average of 136 RBI 80 or more XBH, average of 128 RBI 75 or more XBH, average of 122 RBI Post-1945 (excluding Derrek Lee's 2005) 105 or more XBH, average of 142 RBI 100 or more XBH. average of 141 RBI 95 or more XBH, average of 139 RBI 90 or more XBH, average of 133 RBI 85 or more XBH, average of 130 RBI 80 or more XBH, average of 123 RBI 75 or more XBH, average of 119 RBI I think the post-1945 (an arbitrary cut-off point, but I think it serves its purpose) is more relevant. Relative to the post-1945 average, Lee fell about 33 RBI short. And let's just say that, given that he hit .331/.480/.653 with runners in scoring position, the falling short wasn't Lee's fault. Had Lee got those extra 33 RBI, he'd have easily led the league in RBI (as well as average), so he'd have been 6 home runs short of the Triple Crown.

When I say that you shouldn't expect Cedeno to be any better than Neifi, that's not to say that Cedeno's not a good prospect, that he's not fundamentally better than Neifi right now, not to say that Neifi's any good, it's just to say that the transition from playing everyday for a full season in the minors to playing everyday for a full season in the majors is difficult for the best of prospects at the best of times. Look for instance at BA's Top 20 Rookies list from last February, and how the vast majority of those hitting prospects, some of them better prospects than Cedeno, some of them with more impressive minor league track records, some of them coming off a better year, or a better showing in winter ball, some of them expected to be able to produce straight-away, and look at how they almost invariably struggled. Here are all the hitters that made the Top 20... (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050224rookies.html) Nick Swisher: .236/.322/.446 Dallas McPherson: .244/.295/.449 Jeremy Reed: .254/.322/.352 Chris Burke: .248/.309/.368 Jason Bartlett: .241/.316/.335 Garrett Atkins: .287/.347/.426 (Coors) JJ Hardy: .247/.327/.384 Mark Teahen: .246/.309/.376 Clint Barmes: .289/.330/.434 (Coors) Russ Adams: .256/.325/.383 Jason Dubois: .235/.292/.444 Those are some pretty unimpressive numbers. This doesn't mean that these players won't be useful major league players, or that they weren't good prospects in the first place. It just means that making the transition to the major leagues is difficult, and that that really needs to be appreciated. For most prospects struggling upon promotion to the bigs is something of a right of passage, something that almost needs to be gone through, and if you come out the other side you're all the stronger for it. Players that just take to the majors like a duck to water are a very special breed. You say that there's not much reason to think Cedeno will flop at first. I see it otherwise: there's not much reason to think that, like most prospects, that he won't. It's possible that he won't. It's probably more likely though that he doesn't find it quite so easy. Cedeno actually doesn't have a lot of 2006 ceiling to spare before Neifi's .270/.300/.380 becomes relevant, especially if you take defence into account. That's not an insult to Cedeno, it's not being pessimistic or down on him, it's not a reason to consider not going with him as the Opening Day shortstop, it's not a reason to get him out of the lineup at the first opportunity, or the second or third (he should get a proper chance, and by that we're talking months not days), it's not a justification for playing Neifi, far from it, it's just the truth of the situation. Which is why, when you insert a prospect, or two, into your lineup, you have to be fully prepared for them being truly awful. You can't rely on them. Expect the worst, hope for the best, and put as good a lineup around the rookie or rookies as you possibly can. The Cubs have failed miserably to do that this off-season with the Pierre and Jones acquisitions at the mediocrity auction.

.278/.423/.596 with 48 home runs, 131 walks and 172 strikeouts in 693 plate appearances.

For players with 99 or more XBH in a single season, average of 147 RBI that same year; for players with exactly 99 XBH, 133 RBI; for players between 97 and 101 XBH, 149 RBI; for player with 88 or more XBH, 145 RBI.

Bold denotes Lee and the players with less RBI than him Babe Ruth 1921, 119 XBH, 171 RBI Lou Gehrig 1927, 117 XBH, 175 RBI Barry Bonds 2001, 107 XBH, 137 RBI Chuck Klein 1930, 107 XBH, 170 RBI Todd Helton 2001, 105 XBH, 146 RBI Albert Belle 1995, 103 XBH, 126 RBI Hank Greenberg 1937, 103 XBH, 183 RBI Todd Helton 2000, 103 XBH, 147 RBI Chuck Klein 1932, 103 XBH, 137 RBI Stan Musial 1948, 103 XBH, 131 RBI Sammy Sosa 2001, 103 XBH, 160 RBI Rogers Hornsby 1922, 102 XBH, 152 RBI Jimmie Foxx 1932, 100 XBH, 169 RBI Lou Gehrig 1930, 100 XBH, 174 RBI Luis Gonzalez 2001, 100 XBH, 142 RBI Albert Belle 1998, 99 XBH, 152 RBI Carlos Delgado 2000, 99 XBH, 137 RBI Hank Greenberg 1940, 99 XBH, 150 RBI Derrek Lee 2005, 99 XBH, 107 RBI Albert Pujols 2004, 99 XBH, 123 RBI Babe Ruth 1920, 99 XBH, 137 RBI Babe Ruth 1923, 99 XBH, 131 RBI Larry Walker 1997, 99 XBH, 130 RBI Hank Greenberg 1935, 98 XBH, 170 RBI Juan Gonzalez 1998, 97 XBH, 157 RBI Joe Medwick 1937, 97 XBH, 154 RBI Babe Ruth 1927, 97 XBH, 164 RBI Hack Wilson 1930, 97 XBH, 191 RBI Joe DiMaggio 1937, 96 XBH, 167 RBI Hank Greenberg 1934, 96 XBH, 139 RBI Hal Trosky 1936, 96 XBH, 162 RBI Lou Gehrig 1934, 95 XBH, 165 RBI Joe Medwick 1936, 95 XBH, 138 RBI Albert Pujols 2003, 95 XBH, 124 RBI Lance Berkman 2001, 94 XBH, 126 RBI Jimmie Foxx 1933, 94 XBH, 163 RBI Babe Herman 1930, 94 XBH, 130 RBI Rogers Hornsby 1929, 94 XBH, 149 RBI Chuck Klein 1929, 94 XBH, 145 RBI Jim Bottomley 1928, 93 XBH, 136 RBI Ellis Burks 1996, 93 XBH, 128 RBI Lou Gehrig 1936, 93 XBH, 152 RBI Ken Griffey 1997, 93 XBH, 147 RBI Al Simmons 1930, 93 XBH, 165 RBI Hank Aaron 1959, 92 XBH, 123 RBI Brady Anderson 1996, 92 XBH, 110 RBI Jimmie Foxx 1938, 92 XBH, 175 RBI Lou Gehrig 1931, 92 XBH, 184 RBI Ken Griffey 1998, 92 XBH, 146 RBI Stan Musial 1953, 92 XBH, 113 RBI Frank Robinson 1962, 92 XBH, 136 RBI Babe Ruth 1924, 92 XBH, 121 RBI Alfonso Soriano 2002, 92 XBH, 102 RBI Mark McGwire 1998, 91 XBH, 147 RBI David Ortiz 2004, 91 XBH, 139 RBI Alex Rodriguez 1996, 91 XBH, 123 RBI Babe Ruth 1928, 91 XBH, 142 RBI Rogers Hornsby 1925, 90 XBH, 143 RBI Willie Mays 1962, 90 XBH, 141 RBI Stan Musial 1949, 90 XBH, 123 RBI Willie Stargell 1973, 90 XBH, 119 RBI Albert Belle 1996, 89 XBH, 148 RBI Andres Galarraga 1996, 89 XBH, 150 RBI Richard Hidalgo 2000, 89 XBH, 122 RBI Duke Snider 1954, 89 XBH, 130 RBI Sammy Sosa 1999, 89 XBH, 141 RBI Sammy Sosa 2000, 89 XBH, 138 RBI Hal Trosky 1934, 89 XBH, 142 RBI Garret Anderson 2002, 88 XBH, 123 RBI Barry Bonds 1993, 88 XBH, 123 RBI Barry Bonds 1998, 88 XBH, 122 RBI Joe DiMaggio 1936, 88 XBH, 125 RBI David Ortiz 2005, 88 XBH, 148 RBI Albert Pujols 2001, 88 XBH, 130 RBI Ripper Collins 1934, 87 XBH, 128 RBI Kiki Cuyler 1925, 87 XBH, 102 RBI Charlie Gehringer 1936, 87 XBH, 116 RBI Lou Gehrig 1928, 87 XBH, 142 RBI Jason Giambi 2001, 87 XBH, 120 RBI Shawn Green 1999, 87 XBH, 123 RBI Todd Helton 2003, 87 XBH, 117 RBI Chipper Jones 1999, 87 XBH, 110 RBI Willie Mays 1954, 87 XBH, 110 RBI Mark McGwire 1999, 87 XBH, 147 RBI Kevin Mitchell 1989, 87 XBH, 125 RBI Johnny Mize 1940, 87 XBH, 137 RBI Manny Ramirez 2004, 87 XBH, 130 RBI Alex Rodriguez 2001, 87 XBH, 135 RBI Tris Speaker 1923, 87 XBH, 130 RBI Mark Teixeira 2005, 87 XBH, 144 RBI Frank Thomas 2000, 87 XBH, 143 RBI Vernon Wells 2003, 87 XBH, 117 RBI Robin Yount 1982, 87 XBH, 114 RBI Jeff Bagwell 2001, 86 XBH, 130 RBI Ken Griffey 1993, 86 XBH, 109 RBI Reggie Jackson 1969, 86 XBH, 118 RBI Eddie Mathews 1953, 86 XBH, 135 RBI Don Mattingly 1985, 86 XBH, 145 RBI Don Mattingly 1986, 86 XBH, 113 RBI Hal McRae 1977, 86 XBH, 92 RBI Johnny Mize 1939, 86 XBH, 108 RBI Wally Moses 1937, 86 XBH, 86 RBI Stan Musial 1946, 86 XBH, 103 RBI Magglio Ordonez 2002, 86 XBH, 135 RBI Jim Rice 1978, 86 XBH, 139 RBI Alex Rodriguez 2002, 86 XBH, 142 RBI Babe Ruth 1930, 86 XBH, 153 RBI George Sisler 1920, 86 XBH, 122 RBI Sammy Sosa 1998, 86 XBH, 158 RBI Ted Williams 1939, 86 XBH, 145 RBI So, there have been 74 seasons in the history of the game in which a player has managed 88 or more extra base hits, and in only one of those seasons has a player accrued less RBIs than Derrek Lee did last year. And there's a good reason for that one player failing to do so: not only did Alfonso Soriano manage seven less XBHs than Lee, but he also spent the entire season batting leadoff!

Also, average team scored 84 runs per inning in frames 2-6. Cubs scored 88 per and allowed 80.

Using those numbers, average team scored 93 runs in the first inning. Cubs scored 58, allowed 91.

Some zero. Kendall started off excruciatingly slowly last year, most probably explained by the fact that it was his first ever experience of the American League and it took him a while to adjust, but from May 22nd onwards, Kendall put up a .358 OBP. Over the entire 2005 season, only two Cubs managed to beat that, and one of them hardly played. Here's an interesting fact: for his career, Kendall has a .382 on-base percentage, which is higher than the current career mark of absolutely every single player with more than a handful of at-bats that has spent time on the Cubs roster since Mark Grace left after 2000. I'm pretty sure too that at no stage over those five years has anyone of those players ever had an on-base percentage above .382 as well. Certainly, Jason Kendall has embarrassingly little power, and no speed whatsoever either, he's not that great a defensive catcher I don't think, and he's 31 and has spent an awful lot of time behind the plate, so you've got to be worried about his knees, and his contract is pretty ugly too, but at least the guy still seems to know how to hit for average and how to avoid outs. That's not to say that I would want him on the Cubs' roster, just that I wouldn't call him a zero. In other words, I think the A's have a solid lineup from top to bottom now.

It's mid to late November. The Indians have just Westbrook, Sabathia and Lee pencilled into their 2006 rotation, Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson aren't in the picture yet, Kevin Millwood's still around but his departure is only a matter of time with what he's asking for, especially because the Indians want to spend their money on Brian Giles. If the Cubs had offered Nolasco, Pinto and Mitre for Crisp there and then, do you think the Indians would have rejected it out of hand?

He would have made 2.75M so his 3.65M is a nice increase (he asked for 4M). That doesn't include his signing or performance bonus. He was slated to make around 3.5+, depending on the exactitudes of the performance bonuses and distribution of the signing bonus. Prior would have taken home $3.55m in 2006 had he not filed for arbitration (the exact same amount he made in 2005). That's a $2m basic salary, plus $0.75m in performance escalators that kicked in after his 2003 season ($0.5m for the third place finish in Cy Young voting, $0.25m for the All-Star appearance), plus the final $0.8m installment of his signing bonus. Prior actually will still get that $0.8m signing bonus. On top of that he'll get the $3.65 contract he's just agreed, meaning that he'll end up with an $4.45m sitting in his bank account for this year, an increase of $0.9m relative to what he'd have got had he not opted out of his contract. Prior will be eligible for free agency after 2008.

Marmol at West Tenn Starts 1-3 13.1 IP, 17 H, 2 HR, 15 BB, 7 K, 6.08 ERA Starts 4-14 68 IP, 53 H, 8 HR, 25 BB, 63 K, 3.18 ERA Starts 15-16 (playoffs) 12.1 IP, 8 H, 1 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 3.18 ERA Even if you take into account that he's a flyball pitcher, he's allowing too many home runs for someone pitching in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league, but his strikeout rate is solid and he seemed to tighten up his control towards the end of the year (even in the playoffs he'd allowed just 3 walks through the first 12 of those 12.1 IP, giving him an 80 inning streak where he allowed just 28 walks). Encouraging.

I don't speak Spanish, and I don't know the Spanish terms for baseball statistics, so I didn't know what GP was. I considered that it was HBP, but I ruled out that possibility because, if it were, then GP when added to VB (which is at-bats), BB, SH and SF (all the same) ought to have equalled AL (which can't be anything besides plate appearances). In the Ronda Regular, that's not the case, because VB, BB, SH, SF and GP add up to 191, not AL, which is 198. I've now had a Spanish friend of mine confirm that AL is indeed Plate Appearances, but also that GP is HBP. So, unless Cedeno reached base seven times on defensive interference, the AL figure for the Ronda Regular is wrong, or, less likely, the BB, GP, SH and/or SF numbers are wrong, or, less likely still, SH and SF represent something else in Spanish. Anyway, running with the assumption that the AL figure is wrong, then Cedeno's actual numbers in Venezuela are .356/.400/.485 in 268 plate appearances. He's only been hit by 3 pitches, everything else is as before (.400 average on balls in play, just 16 walks, 33 strikeouts, 20 extra-base hits, of which 3 home runs). He's also only stolen 2 bases, and was caught stealing once, and he's made 12 errors at shortstop. So I think Cedeno's winter, more than anything, underlines the limitations to his game: not that much power, not particularly adept at drawing walks, heavily reliant on the balls in play not finding the fielders, not as speedy as you'd maybe hope, perhaps a little prone to errors defensively. Don't get me wrong, I like him, he only turns 23 next month, he's well above average defensively, he should hit for a handy average, he's got decent speed, I don't think him ever drawing walks is out of the question because there's nothing wrong with his pitch selection, he doesn't expand his zone much, he's not fooled by breaking stuff, it's just he likes to swing when he gets a pitch he can deal with, his bat should develop decent pop, doubles power at least, and he's still my Opening Day shortstop. Just, when someone says "did you know Cedeno hit .356 in Venezuela over the winter?", don't get too excited. I'm sticking with my prediction that a superb year for Cedeno on the 2006 Cubs would be hitting a reasonably empty .280/.330/.400 with defence. In other words, don't expect that he'll be any better than Neifi Perez this year. And he could easily be worse.

Cedeno is hitting .356/.416/.485 in 275 plate appearances in Venezuela. That's the good news. The bad news is that most of that is driven by him hitting exactly .400 on balls in play: he's not walked much (just 16 times, his on-base percentage has been given a boost by 10 hit by pitches), and he's managed just 20 extra base hits, of which only 3 were home runs.

It was completed a day or two ago. $2m/1yr.

Fielder and Weeks are star potential players. I'd say they are very much every bit of excitement they've generated. Both K a bit too much, but have excellent batting eyes. I probably would have held on to Overbay for 1 last year (or 1/2 year). As for Hardy, I like him too. He can really catch the ball. And his 2nd half stats are worth keeping an eye on. .308/.363/.503 I know that Fielder and Weeks are star potential players, and I have very little doubt that Weeks is going to be a star player, but that doesn't mean they'll be that stars in 2006. My best guess for Weeks is something like .260/.345/.440 with 20 stolen bases, which is superb for someone his age and at his salary, etc., but in the whole scheme of things isn't great, even for a second baseman. As for Fielder, .245/.330/.460 with 20+ home runs? Again, great for his age and salary, absolutely superb, but when you're on the field, it's numbers that count and not age or salary, and .245/.330/.460 from a 1B isn't amazing production or anything.

C Miller, 1B Fielder, 2B Weeks, 3B Koskie, SS Hardy, LF Lee, CF Clark, RF Jenkins Really not a very solid decent lineup, though I don't think Fielder or Weeks are worth getting that excited about yet, I think Hardy's underrated, and I think Brady Clark is going to have a pretty bad year. SP Sheets, Davis, Capuano, Ohka and one from Dave Bush, Rick Helling and Dana Eveland, probably Bush then Helling then Eveland. Very decent but not great. Sheets obviously is great. Davis is underrated, Capuano has a lot of potential but needs to cut down his home runs really, really badly or his ERA's headed straight back up whence it came. Ohka and Dave Bush are bearable at best. Decent is the word that I'd use to describe the Brewers. 80-85 win range I think.

Over the last four years, Clement has averaged: 194.2 IP, 170 H, 20 HR, 77 BB, 181 K, 3.99 ERA (3.91 FIPS ERA) Trash? Now look at the Orioles' rotation which right now features Daniel Cabrera (has genuine potential to be among the best pitchers in baseball, but if he ever gets there it probably will be a while), Erik Bedard (has solid number two potential, but he's not there yet either), Rodrigo Lopez (has been rubbish, is rubbish and ever will be - 4.77 career FIPS ERA, he's 30 now, his stuff is sensationally bleh, bread and butter sinker has good movement but clocks just 88, no good breaking stuff to really speak of, certainly not an out pitch, knows how to pitch and make best use of his limited stuff, which is lucky since otherwise he'd be in the minor leagues, but that's about all he's got going for him), Bruce Chen (home run king! Career FIPS of 5.14, FIPS last year was 5.18, my prediction for this year - ERA over 5.00) and Hayden Penn/John Maine (Penn's being rushed, Maine's just doesn't appear to be that good). Sorry, but you put Matt Clement on that staff and he's the ace for now. Now he is getting paid $19m over the final two years of his deal. Sure, he's overpaid, but there's absolutely no way that the guy's trash, that he has no value or, worse, that he has negative trade value. You look at the current market for pitchers and $9.5m per probably isn't far out. The O's aren't going to do any better than that. The only pitching option out there really now is Jeff Weaver, and he's going to require a long commitment. Got any suggestion as to who else the O's can get? Contreras maybe from the White Sox. Who else? Fair value for Clement relative to what he gives you is probably somewhere around about $6m a year. So Clement's, say, $3.5m overpaid in each of the next two years. The Red Sox kick in a bit of cash, eating him down to say about $7-8m a year, and Matt Clement becomes a very valuable trading chip.

I think we can guarantee the A's (Kotsay, Bradley etc), Indians (Sizemore), Twins (Hunter), Royals (DeJesus), Yankees (Damon), BlueJays (Wells) and Devil Rays (Baldelli, Crawford, Gathright etc) aren't among them. We can probably also say with reasonable certainly the Tigers (Granderson, Logan etc) and White Sox (Brian Anderson) aren't involved, but the Tigers are so stupid you never know, and it's possible the White Sox aren't comfortable with Anderson. The Red Sox definately are though (they have a hole). The Mariners almost certainly too (Reed, but they'll be making contingency plans). It's one of three then to finish up: Rangers (their CF situation is unclear to me), O's (likewise. Matos?) or Angels (they have a hole unless they move Erstad there)? I'll go with the Angels as my final guess.

Meh. Hendry's right that trading Walker for Wilson straight up isn't a good deal for the Cubs. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong. But he'll definitely be wrong if he ends up just giving away Walker for scraps as opposed to taking on the opportunity to see if Wilson can put up the 850-900 OPS he appears to be capable of if he is at his best and used properly. Is a good deal for the Cubs in terms of getting equal value back.

Meh. Hendry's right that trading Walker for Wilson straight up isn't a good deal for the Cubs. But the way to go about addressing that is not to ask for them to chip in money. For crying out loud, the way he's splashed the cash on mediocrities this winter, I really don't feel his pain when he now turns around and quibbles about money and how he hasn't got enough of it. Better off asking the Pirates to throw another player into the deal. Like, say, Jody Gerut, who we could actually use. Oh...

I think saying that Grudz isn't working on becoming a better hitter now just because he's reached this stage of his career is slightly excessive.

Wow Craig Wilson strikes out a whole lot more than I realised. 496 strikeouts in 1847 plate appearances on his career. His .268 average features a worryingly high .337 on balls in play. If Wilson is mortal, this could get incredibly ugly extremely fast. It's possible this guy could struggle to hit .225 in a downyear. That'd make respectable OBPs and SLGs hard to come by. I like the fact that he's got a big platoon split and that he's four years younger than Todd Walker. I don't like the fact that like Walker he's just one year away from free agency, that he'd probably just be Jones' platoon partner on the Cubs (or, worse, he'd take playing time away from Murton) whereas Walker is a starting position player, I don't like the fact that we'd be shifting violently towards the wrong end of the defensive spectrum and yet not really getting a bigger bat back, I don't like the fact that Wilson's going to be more expensive than Walker. If the Pirates want to make a deal here, they ought to have to throw in more value. Jody Gerut would sit fine with me, we never should have dealt him away, and he could step into the backup CF role that Hairston's moving to 2B would vacate. They can have one of Todd Wellemeyer, John Koronka or David Aardsma as a throw-in if they like them.