Jump to content
North Side Baseball

Diffusion

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    929

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Joomla Posts 1

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking

News

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

The Chicago Cubs Players Project

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by Diffusion

  1. Diffusion
    Spivey had the makings of a good player after 2002. Here's a guy that can reasonably be expected to hit around .275, draw enough walks to get his on-base up to .350+, and has enough pop to slug about .440. On top of that he plays fine defence at second base, and he's reasonably fast, if not a great basestealer or anything. He's 27 already, but he's probably still got a few good years left in him yet. Sure he'll strike out a bit more often than you'd like, which is why he's only really a .275 hitter (and why you should have been wary of overestimating him based on his impressive BABIP, HBP and 3B-fuelled 2002 line), but once every six plate appearances is manageable if not great. In 2003 though he struck out nearly once every four plate appearances. In 2004 he seemingly got back on track, once every five and a half, but apparently not, for in 2005, he was at at nearly once every three! Striking out that often just makes it completely impossible to hit for anything even remotely resembling an average, and that compromises on-base and slugging too. His defence is still handy, and he's still not slow, the patience at the plate is still there, and the pop too. But right now, as long as he can't be relied upon to hit even .260, say, because he's striking out so frigging often, he's not worth owning. Strikeouts are bad, folks. They've ruined what could have been a pretty useful career for Spivey.
  2. Diffusion
    Does anyone know then what our AAA reserve list looks like right now?
  3. Diffusion
    craig, I recall the report you're referring to in which Hill said his change had been working great that one night. Trouble is, I didn't see much of Hill's cutter in the majors either. Did you?
  4. Diffusion
    To me, a .780 OPS for a corner OF falls short of awesome. Realistic, but nothing special. Obviously it's below league average production from LF, but he's making way below league average money and has way below league average experience of the majors. You offer me .280/.350/.430 in well over 500 PAs from Murton next year here and now, and I'll snap your hand off, because that is pretty awesome production from a rookie. If he was still eligible for RoY, he'd pretty much have it sown up with that kind of performance.
  5. Diffusion
    If Walker can help the Cubs land an OFer like Wilkerson, I say go hard after Vidro, put Cedeno at SS and go hard after Wilkerson. Then, if money allows, sign the best FA starter you can. I think the Rangers are pretty keen on putting Ian Kinsler at second base next year, so I don't think Walker would help land Wilkerson. IIRC, Kinsler hasn't seen one major league pitch yet. Its not like he lit AAA pitching up last year either (.274/.348/.464). The Rangers may plan on starting him, but they will also want an inexpensive veteran option in case he pulls a Jason Dubois. Todd Walker is perfect. And with Williams or Hill headlining the deal, he wouldn't be the main piece the Rangers would be getting in return for Wilky. There's no way that I give up Williams or Hill plus Walker for Wilkerson.
  6. Diffusion
    My understanding is based on something that craig wrote in the minor league forum... Given that Hill had the bulk of his success in the minor leagues, I took that to mean that he left it behind while still in the minor leagues. We'll have to speak to craig or abuck about this. So, what I meant by "went by the wayside" is that Hill stopped using it, not that he lost the ability to use it. My suspicions all along though have been that Hill's changeup is not and never was a major league pitch, and the difference between saying he stopped using it and that he "lost" it is just one of semantics. Another interpretation of the 17 IP/7 IP split, Cubswin, is that his stuff got found out, they learnt how to approach him: lay off the curveball, make him throw it for strikes - if he can't, sit on and pound the living daylights out of the fastball.
  7. Diffusion
    not to mention the fact that Bon jour is 2 words, no? non. Oui, je suis d'accord. Avec qui? Poudre ou Cuse? Tu m'as confondu. C'est "bonjour", c'est un mot, pas deux.
  8. Diffusion
    If Walker can help the Cubs land an OFer like Wilkerson, I say go hard after Vidro, put Cedeno at SS and go hard after Wilkerson. Then, if money allows, sign the best FA starter you can. I think the Rangers are pretty keen on putting Ian Kinsler at second base next year, so I don't think Walker would help land Wilkerson.
  9. Diffusion
    Elijah Dukes and Wes Bankston I guess I forgot. More trade bait.
  10. Diffusion
    Throw Milldege into that too probably. If we were going to get him from the Mets it be for Major League Ready Guys like Prior or Z. This is the kind of thinking I was talking about, it's just plain wrong. A high ceiling, but unproven yet, outfield prospect for a high ceiling, but unproven yet, pitching prospect. At some point, teams with a need for pitching and excess outfielders need to look at that kind of plan, and similarly, teams with excess pitching and a need for outfielders should consider it too. Let's take the case of Delmon Young as one example. He is an incredible prospect, everyone realizes this. The team that owns him has almost NO pitching to speak of, but they currently have FIVE outfielders, and Young would be the sixth. At what point, if you're a prudent GM of that team, do you not come to the conclusion that maybe you should deal from strength and trade that outfielder prospect for pitching help? The general thinking in Tampa is that Huff would play 1st, and Delmon would start in Right, having the outfield look like: Young Baldelli Crawford Hollins and Gomes + Huff for depth (since he can start at 3B, LF, RF, and 1B) Gomes could just DH, no? And Hollins isn't a starter anyway, bench material. Gathright's trade bait right now. Anyone else?
  11. Diffusion
    I agree on that much. However, I think Walker/Tejada is the best MI the Cubs can put together, but it depends on what the price for Tejada is. And I'd still be uncomfortable with RF in that scenario. At this stage, Walker/Cedeno/Abreu is still my preference.
  12. Diffusion
    One thing BK has to give a lot more weight in his analysis of the trade is how Pierre stacks up to the alternative options (three better centre fielders were out there this winter: Mike Cameron, Brad Wilkerson and Milton Bradley) in terms of probable performance and probable cost. The answer, I think, is awfully.
  13. Diffusion
    An excellent explanation of what may have turned off some people to Hill. Clearly written. Thank you, Diffusion. However, my original question still stands. How common is it to have a guy be in awe of the show his first time up? If you are in awe, you will begin to doubt your secondary pitches. You may begin to muscle up on your fastball which will cause it to loose some velocity and straighten out a bit. According to BA (in a scouting report written after his time with the Cubs by the way), Hill has a decent change up that he should throw more often and which he apparently abandoned altogether when he came up last season. Confidence is a huge part of performing well. Anyone who has been in any sort of performance situation knows this. How can 130 innings of AA/AAA ball be so completely negated by 24 innings of major league ball? Whatever happened to sample size? My understanding of it is that the changeup went to the wayside before he reached the major leagues, actually. If that is the case, the "in awe" explanation obviously isn't appropriate. Furthermore, confidence doesn't lend itself as an easy explanation to this split... First 16.2 IP, 13 H, 2 HR, 7 BB, 18 K, 3.78 ERA Next 7 IP, 12 H, 1 HR, 10 BB, 3 K, 21.86 ERA He may well have been muscling up on his fastball, but I don't really know.
  14. Diffusion
    :lol: :lol: :lol:
  15. Diffusion
    [...] Hill is basically major league ready. If the guy can just trust his stuff and battle the same way he did in the minors, he will succeed. How common is it to have a player be a little in awe of the show his first time up? I think Hill deserves the benefit of the doubt given his consistent performance throughout all of last season in the minors. What most disturbed most people about Hill's performance in his short time with the Cubs last year is that he set about making a mockery of Baseball America's scouting report. Certainly, he showcased the often unhittable curveball, but the fastball was nowhere as good as advertised: his velocity was down on earlier in the season, there was very little movement on it, and he had absolutely no control of it for the most part. By this stage in the season he'd also completely laid aside the changeup, he wasn't throwing it any more. A bleh fastball and one other pitch, no matter how good, is not a recipe for success as a major league starting pitcher. People are worried about what kind of a future he has not because of the numbers that he put up, but the way that he went about putting those numbers up.
  16. Diffusion
    Roman Numerals Lesson. I = 1 II = 2 III = 3 IV = 4 V = 5 VI = 6 VII = 7 VIII = 8 IX = 9 X = 10 :P
  17. Diffusion
    I guess it's decided then. Mods, lock the thread!
  18. Diffusion
    I'd rather have a leadoof hitter and someone who can run. You have to give up something in a trade. None of the three will be star pitchers, most likely long relief guys. I sorta have to agree with this. All 3 prospects seem like they have back end of the rotation upsides, which are basically a dime a dozen in the major leagues. Someone hasn't seen the free agent starting pitching market lately.
  19. Diffusion
    Mark Prior won't be a free agent until after the 2008 season at the earliest. When his current deal expires after 2006, he will be arbitration eligible.
  20. Diffusion
    Okay, with a $90m limit (salary for 2006 taken from Cot's, auto-renewal players given $0.4m, arbitration estimates)... C: Victor Martinez ($0.8m) 1B: Albert Pujols ($14m) 2B: Chase Utley ($0.4m) 3B: Miguel Cabrera ($0.4m) SS: Alex Rodriguez ($25m) LF: Jason Bay ($0.75m) CF: Grady Sizemore ($0.4m) RF: Vladimir Guerrero ($12.5m) DH: Travis Hafner ($2.5m) BN: Joe Mauer ($0.4m) BN: David Wright ($0.4m) BN: Mark Teixeira ($3m arb est.) BN: Michael Young ($3m) BN: Coco Crisp ($0.4m) SP: Johan Santana ($9m) SP: Jake Peavy ($2.5m) SP: Carlos Zambrano ($6m arb est.) SP: Mark Prior ($3.1m-ish!) SP: Felix Hernandez ($0.4m) CL: Brad Lidge ($3m arb est.) BP: Huston Street ($0.4m) BP: Jose Valverde ($0.4m) BP: Justin Duchscherer ($0.4m) BP: Fernando Cabrera ($0.4m) L: Mike Gonzalez ($0.4m) TOTAL: $89.95m Sorry for winning this entire competition thing already!
  21. Diffusion
    where can we find up to date contract info? http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ Best website out there by far.
  22. Diffusion
    BTW, Burnett can throw a really good changeup. His feel for the pitch comes and goes though, and he only uses it when he's really confident about it. Which isn't that often. Oh there's that always a few steps ahead thinking that's got the Cubs where they are today. The minor leagues do not exist so that pitchers can do well. They exist so that pitchers can learn how to do well in the major leagues. And if Hill wants to do well in the major leagues, he needs a third pitch as far as I'm concerned. Why on earth then did the Cubs allow the pitch to just drop by the wayside mid-season?
  23. Diffusion
    Macias is hitting .538! Oh noes! Why did we ever let him go?
  24. Diffusion
    Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Jerome Williams, Rich Hill, Angel Guzman Hey, O's that's an awesome rotation you've got there! Thanks for Miggy and Markakis.
  25. Diffusion
    And then when you take into account all Pierre's caught stealings, well, the gap's bigger than when you started out in the first place.
×
×
  • Create New...