Diffusion

Career statistics Carlos Zambrano: 763 IP, 637 H, 55 HR, 332 BB, 655 K, 3.26 ERA Mark Buerhle: 1224 IP, 1226 H, 129 HR, 280 BB, 730 K, 3.63 ERA So, get this, Z is 2 years and 3 months younger than Buerhle, and the only category that Buerhle has an edge over him is walks, while Z wins every other category hands down, and you want to claim that Buerhle is better? Based on what? Pitches per second? Are we talking about the same Freddy Garcia that hasn't won 15 games in a year since the season that ended a whole 40 months ago now (2002)? Never puts the case a little too strongly. He was last properly healthy in May 2004. About 21 months ago. Roughly half the amount of time since Freddy Garcia last won 15 games in a season. No, he was good for Montreal, he can a good half season with the Yanks, completely fell apart for the rest of the year, and since has been pretty much the same pitcher he's ever been, a good one, albeit one with flyball tendancies. Believe it when I see it. Personally I'm not particularly impressed by him.

Wow, dude has REALLY slimmed down... Look at these pictures side by side. Wow. http://ak.imgfarm.com/images/ap/CUBS_SPRING_BASEBALL.sff_AZNH109_20060216145455.jpg My prediction for how Z turns up to Spring Training next year then... http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v284/drunkenyob/Z.jpg He's shrinking!

EDIT

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20060218/capt.797b53eceb8c4490a31a36acd6a255a0.cubs_spring_training_baseball_aznh108.jpg http://ak.imgfarm.com/images/ap/CUBS_SPRING_BASEBALL.sff_AZNH109_20060216145455.jpg http://ak.imgfarm.com/images/ap/CUBS_SPRING_BASEBALL.sff_AZNH110_20060216145602.jpg In an unprecedented move, Bud Selig today awarded the NL Cy Young Award for 2006 to Carlos Zambrano. When questioned as to what he thought about the decision, taken before a single meaningful pitch had been thrown, Mark Prior had this to say... http://www.danwoody.com/Cubs/Prior.jpg

Carlos Zambrano's tears cure cancer. Too bad he has never cried.

Wow Zambrano looks in great shape there. So I guess that's a reason for Pirates pessimism.

Then Hank's record is safe. Bonds has only ever twice hit 48 or more home runs in a season: 2000 (49) and 2001 (73). And he played an average of 148 games those two years.

Bleh, VORP. For pitchers. There wasn't much average about Florida in 2005... W,B&B - 625 IP, 550 H, 37 HR, 192 BB, 534 K, 3.11 ERA Other SP - 342.1 IP, 398 H, 36 HR, 154 BB, 232 K, 5.10 ERA Bullpen - 475 IP, 511 H, 43 HR, 217 BB, 359 K, 4.85 ERA No, far from being average, they were sensationally good (Willis, Beckett and Burnett in particular). And they were sensationally bad (pretty much everyone else). Okay, that's not quite fair. To group Todd Jones (career year), Jim Mecir (who cares), Scott Olson (promising) and Jason Vargas (also promising) in with the sensationally bad group isn't right. So, let's group those four in with W,B&B, and you get... Good (7 pitchers) - 835.1 IP, 742 IP, 50 HR, 264 BB, 710 K, 3.12 ERA Bad (20 pitchers) - 607 IP, 717 H, 66 HR, 299 BB, 415 K, 5.57 ERA Importance of depth, anyone?

Prior Zambrano Wood Buerhle Vazquez

What are you thinking? You need SPEED at the top. it rattles the pitcher and stuff. good thing we didn't follow your methods, Billy. I know you were being sarcastic, but, for what it's worth, Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee are pretty fast, and they're two of the top three! They're not 50 steal threats, but at least they don't slap at the ball. But you want players that slap at the ball and leg out infield hits. they're the hallmark of a playoff team! Which is why I'm training Brian Giles to do all that. Why do you think I got him in the first place?

Depending on the guys in his league, Stewart is a guy that could slip thru the cracks. He doesn't get the hype of a lot of other top guys. Plus, 3B is easier to fill than SS. I'd probably gamble that Stewart makes it to his 2nd pick. Of course, can't fault him for picking any of those names. You think that Stewart will last up until the 22nd pick (straight draft) or even 33rd pick (snake draft)? I really can't see that happening at all. If the managers in his league are knowledge, they'll know that Stewart was injured at the beginning of last year and so got off to a slow start, and that his overall numbers understate how he raked when healthy. Those that don't have a clue will probably just head over to Baseball America, where the first thing they'll see will be Stewart ranked 4th overall in last year's Top 100, as well as top Rockies prospect the last two years. A fair point about third base being a deep position. By the way, Howie Kendrick at 3 is a huge overdraft in my opinion.

What are you thinking? You need SPEED at the top. it rattles the pitcher and stuff. good thing we didn't follow your methods, Billy. I know you were being sarcastic, but, for what it's worth, Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee are pretty fast, and they're two of the top three! They're not 50 steal threats, but at least they don't slap at the ball.

Further to everyone already listed (so that's Quentin, Gordon, Billingsley, Hirsh and Drew), I think Justin Upton, Lastings Milledge, Ian Stewart and Billy Butler are also worthy of consideration. Personally I'd go for Ian Stewart, a legitimately extremely good hitter that figures to spend his career playing in Coors Field.

Interleague throughout the year, I guess. I should think you could make it work that way.

Call me crazy... DIVISIONS NL West Diamondbacks Dodgers Giants Padres Rockies NL Central Cardinals Cubs Reds Brewers Astros NL East Braves Mets Nationals Phillies Pirates AL West A's Angels Mariners Portland (formerly Twins) Las Vegas (formerly Marlins) AL Central White Sox Rangers Tigers Royals Indians AL East Yankees Red Sox Orioles Blue Jays Devil Rays CHANGES Pirates moved from NL Central to NL East. It's always struck me as stupid that despite being in the same state, the Phillies are East and the Pirates are Central. Rangers moved from AL West to AL Central. Likewise, it's always struck me as stupid that despite being in the same state, the Rangers are West and the Astros are Central. Marlins move from Miami to Las Vegas, and from the NL East to the AL West. Florida clearly doesn't have the fans to support two teams, the Marlins have ownership and stadium issues and the franchise doesn't have enough history to make them changing leagues controversial, I don't think. Twins move from Minnesota to Portland, and from the AL Central to the AL West. There's always talk of them being contracted, so I guess maybe they're a better candidate to move than anyone else. 5 teams in each league and 15 in each division. SCHEDULE 18 games against all divisional opponents (72 games), plus 6 games against all other league opponents (60 games), plus 6 games against each member of whichever interleague division you're paired with (30 games). Natural rivalry games are scrapped.

Milton Bradley Brian Giles Derrek Lee Aramis Ramirez Todd Walker Michael Barrett Matt Murton Ronny Cedeno Pitcher That'd work, I think.

Here's the thing though. However good his minor league record was, and however fast his fastball was, he was NOT looking like a major league pitcher. He needed to learn how to get major league hitters out, which he couldn't do. He had the stuff to get past guys who weren't going to make it. He looked like a major league pitcher in 2004, and he was getting major league hitters out, so he clearly could do it, with the stuff to get past guys who had already made it. You're ludicrously talking about Oliver Perez as though he's never experienced success at the major league level, as though 2004 had never happened. That's true for absolutely every minor league player though, that no matter how much success they have in the minors, it's only through actually playing in the majors that they'll ever stand a chance at learning to master the top level. It's a tautology. Luckily for Oliver Perez, he made the transition well, went a long way to mastering things in 2004. The upside is there and it's tangible, because he's gotten close to it once already and he's still only 24. I really don't know what you're on about. Last year he didn't even have the same kind of stuff to make the same mistakes as when he was a young, inexperienced pitcher without a clue as to how to harness this superlative stuff. He was adapting to pitching with a lot less velocity and with a lot less effective a slider, battling terrible control/release point problems, most of which was to do with his arm being out of shape through his own fault. That doesn't reflect well on him, but how you can compare the way he performed last year to the way he performed before breaking out in 2004 I really don't know. Completely different pitcher, completely different circumstances. Certainly, the end results in terms of the numbers were somewhat similar, but all that tells you is the limitations of statistical analysis. You don't need to offer him an extended contract though. Indeed, what with the question marks over whether his mechanics hold up probably means that it's not necessary a move you should make even if 2005 had never happened. The new questions as to whether or not he'll recover from his biggest psychological blow to date throw another spanner in the mix, and they probably mean that Perez wouldn't be willing to settle for a contract extension now even if you wanted to sign him to one. From his perspective, not a great idea to sign a deal when his value's in the troughs.

and what were his offensive numbers post-May? If I remember correctly, with the exception of a grand slam against St.Louis, he went .000/.000/.000 after May.

your kidding right? No, you're kidding right? Or do you really want to trade the guy that saved us last year?

My understanding is that Kip Wells has never been a young lefty with Randy Johnson stuff and ridiculous strikeout numbers, and probably never will be. Really, not the point. Of course it's the point. Do you think if Perez was an old right-hander with rubbish stuff and a low strikeout rate that anyone would be at all excited about him? No, of course they wouldn't. Luckily for Perez, and luckily for the Pirates, he's the exact opposite of all of those things. And that's why he's thought of so highly, and rightly so. Kip Wells though isn't any of those things though, and that's why he gets overlooked. What is a fielding independant ERA? I'm not familiar with that one. Fielding Independent ERA approximates what you'd expect a pitcher's ERA to be based on the peripheral numbers of home runs allowed, walks allowed and strikeouts racked up. In my experience, for pitchers with a decent number of innings thrown, any kind of stuff and a reasonably neutral ballpark, it's disturbingly accurate after groundball, flyball, line-drive etc. tendencies are separately considered. As such, it gives you a more accurate picture of a pitcher's true ability at any moment in time than anything else out there, and is about as good a statistical predictive tool as there is out there, certainly far better than just ERA, or W/L, or any other metric you'll find the mainstream media mention. Want to see how disturbingly accurate it is? Kip Wells has a career 4.36 ERA and a career 4.57 FIPS ERA, which means that his ERA is right where you'd expect it to have been considering his big peripheral numbers and his nicely above average career 1.49 GB/FB ratio. For what it's worth, which isn't much, that's not true... 4.26 ERA - O.Perez 4.36 ERA - Wells No, it's once he lears to harness his fastball. By his own admission, he doesn't know where it's going 1/2 the time. Fair enough, but that was all thrown in under the "and so on" comment. Point is, there's absolutely no reason to believe that the same Kip Wells we've seen over the last few years is a particularly good pitcher, just a lucky one as far as 2003 goes. So, we'll need to see a different Kip Wells before anyone should acclaim him as being any good. He certainly has potential to make that kind of change though, because he's got good stuff. But he's not exactly a spring chicken anymore and just having good stuff isn't any guarantee that it'll eventually happen for you. In that case, let's just take away Kerry Wood's last two years and declare him still the best pitcher in all of baseball. But that's one thing that Kerry Wood isn't right now, and if there's one thing Kip Wells isn't right now either it's a "pretty damn good pitcher". In this case at least, like most cases, you can't justify throwing out two years of a pitcher's career, especially the last two, especially when the pitcher's not particularly young, and then make hyperbolic statements about their ability. It'd be no fairer for me to throw out 2002 and 2003 and declare Kip Wells a career 4.98 ERA pitcher. Truth is, Wells hasn't been that bad, but he's not been that good either, and the truth lies somewhere in. Somewhere around his career ERA even. Perez is a different beast. Everyone knows the story about last year: told not to throw over the off-season, literally doesn't do any throwing, reports in the Spring with his arm completely out of shape, spends months playing catchup trying to regain the velocity of his fastball and the bite on his slider, frustratingly slow progress, takes it out on a laundry cart, season over. So what he's only had one really good year? He's 24. He's not been in the big leagues long. His minor league record prior to getting called up (as in I'm not counting an 10 inning spell in Triple-A last year) was impeccable, with a 2.86 ERA over 258 innings in which he struck out 307, walked 107 and allowed 213 hits, always very young for his league. He has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in the majors. Really the only concern is his mechanics, and how that relates to his control and his chances of injury. Little else stands in his way except for, perhaps, the psychological and whether or not he responds the right way to 2005. All the reports about how he's been going about things this offseason is encouraging in that regard. I'm extremely bullish on the guy. And really the reason isn't just 2004. Judging Perez by the same metrics as Kip Wells, to be fair, Perez' FIPS ERA in 2004 was 3.46, a half-run higher than his actual ERA, and Perez is a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, which means that not only is it likely that he'll continue to give up 20 home runs per full season, but that by rights his FIPS should undershoot. His 2004 in that context wasn't great. But it was very encouraging for a 22-year old with the package that Perez has. A high strikeout rate is the best indicator of a pitcher that will stick around for a long time and have a successful career, and Oliver Perez, psychology and injury allowing, will.

THIS SETTLES IT!

Dunn's BABIP in 2005 was .279. So, yes, it was lower than you'd expect given that he was a career .297 hitter on balls in play going into last year (and now he's at .292 career), but the impact wasn't that significant. The real and not so secret reason why he can't hit for average is that he strikes out far too much for that.

Because Sosa was so bad for the Cubs. Yeah, especially those 3 years where he hit 60+ HR per year. Who needs a guy like that on the team? The Nationals.

Because Sosa was so bad for the Cubs.

My understanding is that Kip Wells has never been a young lefty with Randy Johnson stuff and ridiculous strikeout numbers, and probably never will be. Furthermore, my understanding is that Kip Wells has never even be genuinely good for a middle aged right handed pitcher with plus stuff. Even in 2003, his Fielding Independent ERA: 4.44. His career ERA: 4.36. So when Kip Wells learns how to get hitters to only hit .259 off him (2003) when they put the ball in play, as opposed to his perfectly normal .299 career mark, which is what made the difference for him that year, then maybe he's worth paying attention to. Until then, or until he gets lucky again, or until he becomes that young lefty with Randy Johnson stuff and so on, not so much.