Illini Iceman

viewtopic.php?p=2085077#p2085077 (Levine) viewtopic.php?p=2041881#p2041881 (Miles) viewtopic.php?p=2042187#p2042187 (Wittenmeyer with words from Kenney) thanks, but none of those links provides anything more than speculation. oh come on. Things could have changed since those reports came out, but that's 3 guys whose sources have the same figure. Seems like a tad more than some guy at nsbb pulling a number out of thin air. you're missing the point. people in this thread are using the 140m term as if it's absolute. i'd just like to see something - anything - that says that. has hendry ever even said anything along the lines of "we'll probably wind up in the 140 range" or anything similar? I don't think I'm missing anything. If you expect Hendry to say that the payroll will be exactly $140m and nothing is going to change his mind, you're not going to get it. But what you're asking is pretty close to what Crane said in one or more of those linked articles. no, you are. people are arguing against the derosa trade because had the cubs have kept him, they still could've signed bradley and came in at 140m. not knowing what the cubs brass intends the payroll to be, the entire point is moot. IIRC, in the past hendry has been pretty forthcoming about what his budget is. i have yet to see anything concrete that says what that is this year. "no, you are" - so we're in 3rd grade now? If you want to know how much the Cubs are going to spend, words from the CEO are better than from the GM. Are you just being really difficult b/c TT gave you exactly what you were looking for when you didn't think he could? I think that Hendry traded DeRosa and Marquis in what were pretty clear salary dumps just prior to signing Bradley tells you exactly how much the Cubs were willing to spend. Hendry's actions speak much louder than the Paul Sullivan's speculation about some mythical $140M salary cap.

We heard 140 million over and over again, and if it wasn't 140 million it was speculation that it was higher than that. Again, not to be rude, but what you and I heard is not more accurate than what Hendry knows. They wanted another LH bat and DeRo became the odd man out. Remember that they started last year with a $118 payroll. They added another $3.5 or so with Hardens trade and Wood added another $3.5 in bonuses on his contract. They finished at roughly $125. I'm not positive, but like you said, $140 seems to be the hard line. They are already there, no. At some point another $3.3 mil (difference between Miles/DeRo) has to matter. Two important factors: Their payroll is set up to increase yearly for '09 and '10. And they had to make expensive FA moves (Demp and Bradley). Somebody was going to fall victim to those factors. Those somebody's are DeRo, Marquis and Wood. My head hurts. I am not sure what is so confusing. Clearly Hendry didn't trade DeRosa just for the fun of it. If he had been able to keep DeRosa and still sign Bradley it is a no brainer that he would have. The DeRosa trade was clearly a salary dump so whoever we "heard" from over and over again that it was 140 million and whoever "speculated" that it might be higher obviously was wrong. It's not like Hendry didn't like DeRosa - he just really wanted Bradley for RF and clearly was forced to get rid of some bigger '09 contracts in order to be given the OK to sign him.

I've asked you this before and you haven't responded to me, but what is it about Aaron Miles that made him a necessity to sign when we did? There are numerous other options who were on the market at the time getting very little interest at the time we signed Miles and are still on the market (getting minor league deals and cheaper contracts than Miles) who have similar or better stats than Miles. So what is it about Aaron Miles specifically that made it important we sign a backup middle infielder quickly when there were numerous other options out there? Hendry obviously liked him and wanted to have him locked up before he moved DeRosa which then allowed him to sign Bradley. If you don't agree with Hendry about how much he likes Miles as a player that is fine, but the timing makes sense. He probably couldn't sign Bradley until he cleared the Marquis and DeRosa salary and he didn't want to wait on that and have someone swoop in and sign Bradley since he was the "must have" guy for Hendry this offseason. He thought Fontenot / Miles was the best option for replacing DeRosa's production and didn't want to make the DeRosa move and not have his replacement plan in place. Rumors at the time were that there were some other clubs interested in Miles at about the same price range so if he waited on that he might not get him. Again, the backround issue here is whether or not you agree that Miles was the guy to get. However, if you just go by the given that Hendry felt that he was then his timing made sense all things considered.

A lot of what he says is pointless and misinformed but I have no problem understanding him.

fixed re-fixed I know a lot of this is probably tongue in cheek, but the irrational Aaron Miles hatred that has been building around here lately is silly. Yes, he is just a reserve type middle infielder without a lot of power. But he shouldn't be in baseball? They guy hit .317 last year with a .355 OBP in 379 AB's. If a guy that can do that doesn't even belong in baseball there should be a lot of 22 man rosters. He sure belongs to be in a baseball at least as much or more than Ronny Cedeno who was the Cubs' utility infielder last season and I assume will be on the Mariners roster this year.

Yeah, because other than that stuff Hill and Z are pretty much the same pitcher.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/basketball/bulls/chi090218-chicago-bulls-trade-kings-timberwolves,0,3854012.story

I like the following against RH: Soriano Fontenot Lee Ramirez Bradley Soto Fukudome Theriot and the following against LH: Soriano Theriot Lee Ramirez Bradley Soto Johnson Miles

Guess who had a higher IsoP last year between Blanco and Bako. Are you suggesting Bako is a better hitter than Blanco? And if so, are you basing that solely on last year? I hope you're not trying to suggest what I think you're saying because of one stat from one year. I'm saying that Bako has as much if not more "pop" in his bat as Blanco does. But that was a huge outlier for Bako. Looking at their last 4 seasons ISOP of 100 AB's or more (throwing out Bako's 05 and Blanco's 07): Bako: .080, .020, .051, .111 Blanco: .162, .149, .153, .100 That's a huge difference between the two before last year, and that was a strange year for both. Bako hit as many home runs as he had in his 6 previous seasons combined, and Blanco had easily the best batting average he has ever had but more of those ended up being singles. Even though last years data should be the most valued (especially with these older players) I don't see how in this case it does enough to contradict the previous data that Blanco has more power than Bako. It doesn't really matter much from a bench standpoint because Lou hardly if ever used Blanco as a PH unless it was an extra innings game and he had no other options. I seem to remember him even using Zambrano as a PH in some cases before Blanco. I would assume he will use Bako in a similar way. There is some overall relevance, of course, due to the games the back up catcher will start to give Soto a rest.

I assume he also thinks the Astros should be stripped of their National League title that they won with Clemens as well if he is proven guilty, correct?

And you really think Bako would hit appreciably better? If you have the choice of two backup catchers, neither of whom is known to be able to hit worth a damn, isn't the guy that's been around this pitching staff for the last two seasons the better choice? Neither one makes me happy about the options if Soto has to miss some time, but I have a better feeling that over a 2 week period or in spot starts Bako could at least hold his own than I do about Hill. If it is an extended period of more than a couple weeks then the Cubs are screwed either way because the production out of either one is going to be way below replacement level. Hill, however, has never shown at any point that he can handle major league pitching. He was so bad in 2007 that bringing Kendall over seemed like a huge boost to the offense. My feeling is start with Bako and if he really stinks up the joint or if Hill is tearing it up in AAA (you know he would take the minor league assignment and clear waivers) you can always switch it out later in the season.

I love the high quality job Topps did on the Larry Cox Mariners cap. They used to do this with all the players that changed teams after Topps' deadline to take the pictures. It's funny that they even bothered - like it would freak people out too much to have the player with a different cap so they get some 6th grader to color over the old one.

There is a picture of him on the front page of cubs.com. And I wouldn't exactly say he looks awesome.

I would imagine all of it unless another team picks him up off waivers. Unless Hill suddenly figured out how to hit, I saw enough of him in 2007 to feel much more comfortable with Bako as the back up (and that is saying a lot since I don't think much of Bako either). Hill was about as close to an automatic out as you can get. It's like having two pitchers in the lineup (and even that is an insult to some of our pitchers). His line in 2007 was .161 / .231 / .269. His career line is .190 / .257 / .281. And most of that is before he chopped off a bunch of his fingers. Sorry, he does not belong on any 25 man roster, especially not on one for a contending team that will need the back up to make about 40 starts in order to keep their everyday catcher fresh.

I am excited about seeing a healthy Angel Guzman in spring training and think his success could be a real key for the season. I hope he can finally put it all together because if he can then I would feel much better about having Marmol as the closer and losing him for those key 7th and 8th inning situations. Pitching in relief could allow Guzman to really let loose with his nasty stuff and still not put as much stress on his arm since he would be pitching less innings. Very similar situation IMO to when they moved Wood to the bullpen.

No kidding. I'd take a horrific Andruw over a less than mediocre Gathright any day of the weak. At least with Andruw there is a slight chance he might figure out how to hit a baseball again. Obviously I don't want Gathright on the Cubs, but considering the last two yrs of AJ, and NOOOO I wouldn't even offer him a minor league contract. Unless he proves otherwise, AJ is done. it probably needs to be pointed out that 2 years ago gathright and jones posted the exact same ops+ (88)and that was in gathright's career year. at least andruw is fat, what's gathright's excuse He sucks? What is Jones's excuse for the 34 OPS+ last season? Being REALLY fat. Not caring? In all his years of suckiness Gathright has never touched that OPS+ and I don't see much that has changed since last season that would lead me to believe that Jones is going to suddenly become interested again (especially playing off the bench).

Obviously Towers is clearing the 40 man roster to make room for all the players he is going to get from the Cubs in the Peavy trade.

I doubt you'll find many people who argued both sides. It's just that one side was more vocal then, and the correct side was more vocal after the trade. I've been in favor of keeping Marquis for a while. Before last season I was saying we shouldn't dump him for peanuts. Yeah, he is awesome. At worst, he's an average major league starter. Maybe a little better. He was mediocre and highly paid. I find it hard to believe that between Marshall, Gaudin, Shark and Heilman the Cubs won't be able to at least match Marquis' expected production. The advantage to those guys (besides the cost) is they all have the flexibility to pitch out of the pen (or sent down to AAA) if they aren't needed in the rotation. If you have Marquis he is pretty much in the rotation or bust since he has never really pitched out of relief and has shown that he would not be willing to do it happily.

I doubt you'll find many people who argued both sides. It's just that one side was more vocal then, and the correct side was more vocal after the trade. I've been in favor of keeping Marquis for a while. Before last season I was saying we shouldn't dump him for peanuts. Yeah, he is awesome. Not awesome, but a decent enough #5 starter. Good enough to not throw away for scraps. I am sure that Hendry didn't think about that. If only he had called a few teams to see if they would give him more than scraps. What an idiot.

Oh, please no.

I doubt you'll find many people who argued both sides. It's just that one side was more vocal then, and the correct side was more vocal after the trade. I've been in favor of keeping Marquis for a while. Before last season I was saying we shouldn't dump him for peanuts. Yeah, he is awesome.

I really don't see that happening. They already have a ton of outfielders/DHs. If they wanna spend more money, I'd go after Sheets if I were them. On XM yesterday they were saying that per the MLB front office the Yankees were over the limit on type A and type B free agents and could not sign any more this offseason. It was in relation to the possibly signing of Juan Cruz. I am not sure on the rules and even the two hosts of the show weren't claiming they knew for sure (I guess it is a rather complicated issue) but that someone had asked the commisioner's office and was told that the Yankees were at the limit and could only sign Pettitte because he was their own free agent. EDIT - here is what they were talking about: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090129&content_id=3784888&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

My favorite thing is how Marquis went from a complete waste of a roster spot who should be outright released at the end of last season to a valuable 5th starter and innings eater once he was traded by Hendry.

I kind of liked Wuertz but this definitely looks like a trade that comes from Lou telling Hendry he is not comfortable with having him in the bullpen. Hendry probably figured he was better moving him now than waiting until the end of spring training when he probably just has to release him with the amount of other similar relievers that would also be getting released. I think people are kind of overrating Wuertz's trade value.

They don't care about the baseball records. They care that he lied to in an attempt help Victor Conte get off the hook on the case they really cared about. Sets a bad precedent if they let people lie to a federal grand jury to save their friends in a high profile case like this and then don't punish them for it. If Barry Bonds was Marvin Benard, the feds wouldn't give a Veterans Committee. They're nailing him to the wall cause he dared to break the HR record. If that was their real motive, why didn't they going after McGwire? He broke the single season home run record. Did McGwire perjure himself? No, that's why the Feds didn't go after him. They go after law breakers like Bonds, not because someone breaks a home run record. Did they go after Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron or Roger Maris when they broke the home run records? Of course not. Your argument is silly. You're missing the point entirely. Is Palmeiro being prosecuted? Nice try. Palmeiro alledgeldy perjured himself at a Congressional House Committee investigation into steroid use in baseball. Bonds did it to a Federal Grand Jury investigating BALCO and Victor Conte for illegal steroid distribution and money laundering. Big difference in the seriousness of those two types of proceedings. But, for what it's worth, the Congress did look into indicting Palmeiro but determined that they did not have any proof of steroid usage by Palmeiro that took place PRIOR to the testimony. The Federal prosecutors on the other hand did have enough evidence on Bonds. Bonds lied despite knowing the risks and having a pretty good indication that the Feds could prove he was lying. It was worth it to him to attempt to save his career and now he is paying the price since his gamble that they either did not have the evidence or would not pursue him did not pay off.