Catman61

As I said the numbers are a little funky this time of year. The 35 in the elimination column means that as of today, the Cubs have to win a minimum of 35 more games to avoid being eliminated from any possible chance at a 1st place. Each teams(NL Central only) elimination number added to their current win total comes to 54 and the difference in elim number from top to bottom reflects the games back in the standings. Just a guess, but I imagine that with 110 or more games left for everyone that is as far as they can project with current data.

Here is a very cool site that actually figures in head to head play and is updated every day. Numbers always look a little funny this time of year with so many games left. At the bottom of the page are the explanations for how the numbers were calculated. http://128.32.125.151/~baseball/

NO, they don't November 25, 2003: Derrek Lee traded by the Florida Marlins to the Chicago Cubs for Hee Seop Choi and Mike Nannini (minors). Sure, we got them once. They've gotten us twice. Yes, Florida owes us one. Let's start with that kid they have at 3B. Awww, cmon you aren't still sore about 6 finger and Clement for Willis, Tavarez, Ryan Jorgeson & Jose Cueto. Dontrelle was a late round pick, 8th round of the 2000 draft (223rd overall) at the time of the trade he had never pitched above High Class A and in the FSL which is a pitcher's league.

NO, they don't November 25, 2003: Derrek Lee traded by the Florida Marlins to the Chicago Cubs for Hee Seop Choi and Mike Nannini (minors).

Then you don't expect him to be a Cub in 2007 if he doesn't get traded? Bud Smith and Jose Jiminez pitched no-hitters as Cardinals, doesn't mean they will do it again. Certainly a GM MIGHT give him more money than the Cubs and a GM might not either. He might also look at the slowwww starts ARam has had each of the last 2 years, the rumored lack of offseason conditioning and the groin/leg/hammy problems he has had over the last few years then offer a contract that is 10+M less than his current contract 2007-2009.

You do realize that it only takes ONE person to make absolute statements such as yours false. Not to mention how silly that claim looks in light of the entire picture such as Pujols wasn't one ANYONE'S radar as a baseball prospect when he entered the US back in 1996 How many 18-19 year olds are going to spend the next 3 years (he was a sophmore when he started HS in KC) in HS Seeing as he wasn't drafted until the 13th round and the 402nd pick in 1999, he obviously wasn't considered a prospect then Which begs the question, what would have been the motivation to fake his age back in 1996? Virtually every other case in baseball has been to get a bigger contract/bonus when signed, that certainly doesn't apply here. In addition, Pujols has made trips outside the US since 9/11 and nothing has surfaced, somehow I doubt he could fake out the US government when so many others could not.

So if you were the Marlins, why would you accept him in trade? And unless ARam's season makes a dramatic turnaround, why would he opt out of a guaranteed 22+M over the next 2 years as well as a very good chance of another 11M for 2009 (mutual option vests with 270 games 07-08 )

Pujols has always been a doubles machine(227 or 45+/year), last year was the first time in his career that he didn't hit at least 40 doubles the 1st year he wasn't top 10 in the NL in doubles and only the 2nd time he wasn't in the top 5. It would seem that the difference is that this year those hits that would be doubles have a little more oomph and are going out of the park instead of off the wall. (as noted by the 200+ points in SLG)

You are missing one very important point Cubbie Rich, the burden of proof is on the ACCUSER and not the accused. And frankly, you don't even have the barest of circumstantial evidence for any of your accusations.

From Rotoworld

2/38? Is that better or worse than his average w/ the bases empty? the 2 must be 2 RBI bases empty (113 AB) .221/.261/.301/.561 runners on (38 AB) .237/.293/.263/.556 RISP (20 AB) .150/.227/.150/.377 RISP 2 out (15 AB) .000/.063/.000/.063

Sit him vs lefties? better sit him at Wrigley .167/.211/.204/.415

fragility????? games played 2000-2005 ARam 800 or approx 133/season Rolen 786 or approx 131/season games played 2000-2004 ARam 677 or approx 135/season Rolen 730 or approx 146/season Rolen has fragility issues in comparing him to ARam? Even considering Rolen's freak injury from his collision with Choi, one could hardly give the health advantage to Ramirez.

1999 - 121 OPS+ 2000 - 126 OPS+ 2001 - 127 OPS+ 2002 - 132 OPS+ 2003 - 139 OPS+ 2001 - 160 OPS+ While 2004 is a bit of a jump, an OPS+ in the mid to high 140's wouldn't have been unreasonable in looking at Rolen's trend line

Of course Rolen's 3 year avg posted above includes this line from 2005 .235/.323/.383/.706

Shame the Cubs went and signed a player finishing up his prime to a 5 year 65 million $ contract.

clearly? Excluding Rolen's cup of coffee in 1996 (130 AB) and his injured 2005 season Rolen has NEVER had a season with an OPS+ under 121 (8 times) and 4 seasons with an OPS+ over 130. ARam has 3 seasons over 120 and 2 over 130. 130 also happens to be Rolen career OPS+ which is just 7 points under ARam's career best

5 years? Rolen dob 4/4/75 ARam dob 6/25/78

:roll: Oh boy, here we go again OK, I'll ask a simple question. What are the odds of the player hitting the 2 doubles of being out at 2B? Zero or next to zero? And the odds of the 2 singles and stealing second? about 1 in 4 Not true re: Pierre. He has a 74% career stealing percentage. Assuming that his percentage is approximately the same for stealing second or third, the odds of him stealing second two consecutive times is 55% Thanks for posting the EXACT thing I just said, however the wording may have been confusing. However the context of my question was how often in the guy hitting the doubles out at 2nd base, virtually nil but the guy hitting 2 singles and stealing 2nd will be out at 2nd 25% of the time. And you wrote that Pierre's stealing % is 74 which means he is out stealing 25% of his attempted steals or about 1 in 4 batter hits 2 doubles, virtually 100% safe at 2nd base or 2 of 2 on 2nd batter hits 2 singles attempts steals of 2nd, 1.48 of 2 times on 2nd Lets stretch that out to 40 doubles/40 singles singles hitter times successfully on 2nd of 40 attempts 29.6 rounded to 30. So now do you not only NOT have a runner on 2nd, you don't have a runner on 1st either and 1 less out to work with that inning. (and no I am not downplaying steals, just making a point in the context of the question re SLG %) The problem with your chosen scenario is you IMPLY 100% success rate (but then steals second base after each hit?)

I don't predict a big drop off by Edmonds. But expecting him to exceed all his career averages is irrational. career .291/.384/.543 2005 .263/.385/.533 Career OPS+ 138 2005 OPS+ 136 I doubt he'll surpass all his average. My guess is he'll be a little below his 2005 numbers, but still very productive and better than any Cubs outfielder. Why is it irrational? You posted his career averages and has been said ad nasuem Edmonds had a "down" year yet was right on his career averages sans batting average 2000 .295/.411/.583 - 148 2001 .304/.410/.564 - 150 2002 .311/.420/.561 - 163 2003 .275/.385/.617 - 161 2004 .301/.418/.643 - 173 2005 .265/.385/.533 - 136 career avg .291/.384/.543 - 138 so if he has just a slight bounceback from his "down" year, he exceeds all his career avgs (again my only reservation is batting avg) What is really so irrational about that? PECOTA - .285/.407/.582 ZIPS - .287/.402/.588 Rotogenuis .272/.389/.550 ZIPS & PECOTA have Edmonds avg close to .291 and well over career numbers in OBP & SLG

:roll: Oh boy, here we go again OK, I'll ask a simple question. What are the odds of the player hitting the 2 doubles of being out at 2B? Zero or next to zero? And the odds of the 2 singles and stealing second? about 1 in 4

Gotta love a "down" year with an OPS of .918 I fully expect him to exceed all his career averages, well maybe not batting average. measurable drop offs in BB? BB by year in STL 103 93 86 77 101 91 (10th in MLB) RBI's? 3 less than ARam in 4 more AB. I would think a Cub fan of all people would realize RBI's are very dependent on OPPORTUNITY. Edmonds batted .302 with an OPS of 1.028 with runners on and .297 with an OPS of 1.008 with RISP. Power? yep, it was down but still was top 25 in the majors

PECOTA's predicted VORP Jones 6.0 Pierre 13 Murton 8.5 Taguchi -3.4 :cry: Encarnacion 8.0 Rodriguez 13.9 Edmonds 54.3

So what exactly qualifies as a big gap or not a big gap?

I'm not sure 19 points of OBP and minus 78 points of SLG makes Pierre better than Juan E I also doubt that Taguchi will be the everyday starter in LF, Rodriguez figures to see a fair amount of time his PECOTA is .265/.340/.461/.801 And while I know we are speaking of offense, but the Cards OF (Juan/Jimmy/So) is also superior defensively.