CubinNY

The off season is far from over but I would say Flordia, Atlanta, Baltimore, and the NY Yankees have had the worst off-seasons so far. The Marlins will be terrible next year. I would say the Mets by far have had the best off-season, it is not even close. If they get Manny it will be even better. After that I think Toronto has a good off-season as have Boston. I think the Cubs have upgraded the bullpen and in CF but must get a big bat for right field. To date I would give them a solid C+. But they need an A for the off-season to be a success.

And even easier to greatly overvalue, which is something the Cubs have been doing this offseason. how do you know when the value has not been completely or accurately measured. I had a similare debate with you when I first came here regarding clutch. the gist of my argument was clutch may not exist but the way sabr has attempted to measure it doesn't tell the whole story. I was treated as a blasphemer. http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.PDF while Matt critiqued some of James' methods, the point is clear, sabr is a new science, and accurate formulas for measuring it do not yet exist. there are gaps in the information guys, and like I've said over and over here, the true measure of speed is not stolen bases alone, but most of the studies on the impact of speed focus solely on the stolen base. come on? blasphemer? I don't think anyone has ever written that a "saber" approach (whatever that is) has all the answers. I think people base their opinion on the best available evidence and adjust their opnion accordingly when new evidence is presented. There is a difference between statistically significant and meaningfully different. Pierre is faster than Wilkerson, no dobut. But I think the important question is: Does the atvantage of foot speed outweigh the disatvantage in other areas. To me it does not. In the other thread on Pierre in baseball discussions DK has a great post in relation to Juan's value. http://www.northsidebaseball.com/PremiumForum/viewtopic.php?t=27305&start=20

Probably less than 5 and more than 0. In otherwords, an insignificant amount. helping me to demonstrate my point about failing to measure everything or measure everything accurately. 'it's probably X, so let's not attempt to measure and conclude it's insignificant' while preventing this type of out isn't as valuable than avoiding an out while in the batter's box, over the course of 700 plate appearances the difference between a .325 and a .350 obp is 18 outs prevented. the difference between a .350 and .375 is 17 outs prevented. so let's say the number of times Pierre does this is 5, but you have to diminish that because its not as valuable as an out prevented in the batter's box. so let's say those 5 are as valuable as 3 outs prevented in the batter's box. then you have to add to that the number of reached on errors that Pierre will have over Wilkerson. give him 5 more. that's 8 outs prevented. just with those two items alone, Pierre closes the a 25 point gap in obp by half. look, adherents to sabr can pick apart each individual point I have made, but it doesn't take a statistical genius to come to the conclusion that speed is a very valuable commodity, the true value of which has yet to be measured and is therefore easy to ignore. Where do you get these assumptions from? They bare no resemblence to reality whatsoever. Wilkerson is not Mike Lowel. I think cpaptterson20 already mentioned Wilkerson has only hit into a handfull of DPs in his career. Peirre doesn't take the best advantage of his speed b/c he is not that good of a base stealer. However, it's fine if you think Pierre is a better leadoff hitter then Wilkerson.

Why do you say that? It is not just Stone who says that. All one has to do is watch him pitch.

You could be right. But to me taking time away from baseball was the best thing for him. Sometimes they way to solve a problem is to back away from it for a while, regroup, and try again. I do not believe that Corey has been sitting at home and working on his stamp collection. He probably has found someone he trusts and has been working on things. I am rooting for him, but I think the best thing for him and the Cubs is to part ways. I don't think he is stupid, stubborne or any other personality disorder peopel ascribe to him. I think he has gotten this far on talent alone and has been trying to rely on what got him to the show. It is a pitty he didn't have better teachers.

Probably less than 5 and more than 0. In otherwords, an insignificant amount.

I have nothing to say other then I think it is important that I make a statement in support of this move.

It's been written here before so this is nothing new. I'd see if Nomar is willing to play in the outfield. Side-arm thrower or not, he is likely better then who the Cubs will put out in RF or LF next year.

Hmm. I'm not working yet, though I will be going in around 10:30. Tim, If I were you after last night. I'd be knee deep in a bottle of scotch right now :drunken:

Manny is worth 1.5 Tejada's IMO. He also makes a lot more money. But not a bad trade idea at all.

With all the Snow, who is at work today?

Those are some pretty big ifs there, Fred. Hendry just blew most of his best tradeable commodities to obtain Pierre, especially if you assume he has no intention of trading Hill or Pie. Unless you want to give up one of Prior or Zambrano, I just don't see us having a shot at getting a stud RF at this point. As for Murton and Cedeno, I also hope they live up to our hopes but it's probably not realistic to assume they both will. Few young players immediately reach their potential, and Baker's history is such that they're in danger of losing playing time to the likes of Mabry and Neifi at the first signs of struggle. Pierre's value is pretty much entirely dependent on his BABIP, as he doesn't take many walks and his power is best described as laughable. The good news is his skill set is conducive to a high BABIP. (Good contact ratio, lots of GB, great speed.) The bad news is that BABIP is by it's very nature heavily influenced by luck, making players like Pierre prone to the occasional poor season such as his 2002 or 2005 campaigns. There's really no way to tell which version of Pierre we're getting for 2006, though I admit the 2004 version is probably a bit more likely than the 2005. Finally, the degree of upgrade from the 2005 leadoff hitters to Pierre has a lot less to do with Pierre being good than it does with last year's bunch being absolutely pathetic. Nicely put BK. The Cubs have to hope that one of a few things happen if they don't want to give up the top prospects or a front end pitcher for an impact bat: 1. They can piggyback on a multi-team trade. 2. A trade falls through and Hendry is there to pick up the pieces (ala DLee). 3. A salary dump (not likely). 4. "Chemistry" problems (Milton Bradley type). 5. They trade Aramis or Lee (not likely either).

I agree. I am expecting 10-12 starts with a very good ERA and about 4 wins (Not necessairly Woods fault).

Is Valdez a legitimate prospect? I remember when the Cubs signed him, he had some pretty good numbers during his "career" in Cuba.

Thanks craig. I always learn something when I read your opinions.

I'll see you bid and raise two bad contracts

The problem is they would want Prior or Zambrano. And that is for starters Tejada is the real deal and has a decent contract. The ironc thing is that LA has the prospects and with Lowe perhaps the starting pitching to maybe swing the deal. But now they have the 13 million dollar man at SS.

That's another free agent signing I got wrong. Me good at free agent game.

It doesn't bother me one bit. I fail to see how making a ridiculous contract even more ridiculus is a good thing.

If they are smart they will take some of it and invest it in more and better scouting and minor league player development. They could upgrade their DR acadamy. They could hire a Pacific rim scout (Leon Lee for example). They don't have to spend all of on overprice castoffs. Hendry could also save some for the trading deadline or for next year. It is time to do some forward thinking. As of today I don't see 2006 becoming the year of the Cub. But you never know.

I do too. And I think he can be had for on the cheap. The guy is done in Tampa just as Patterson is done in Chicago. I'm not suggesting a patterson for Huff swap at all. I think he is a pretty decent baseball player and this would be a case of Hendry buying low...as would Bradley. We shall see if Hendry is into bargin hunting.

87 players had an ISOD over .100 (with at least 200 PAs) in 05. That's a pretty decent sized group. 167 players were at (or above) Walker's career average of .081. 207 people with over 200 PAs had a higher BB/PA than Walker. I like Walker as much as anyone and want him on this team badly next year, but he's not the great leadoff hitter we all think he is. Especially, when he's as like to post a .330's OBP as he is one in the .350's. Was Juan Pierre among them?

You have my proxy in this matter as I am done with the discussion.

I agree.

I'm just going to cut and paste this form the emergency board from last night Not to get political here but this problem kind of reminds me of a union. When I was professing for a living we had a union. About 15% of the professors belonged to the union. The union negotiated contracts with the University on behalf of all the faculty. But becuase only a small minority of people payed dues the University allways "won" when negotiating. Then people would complain about the union "not working". I would tell them then join the union and reap the benefits. People like you and me (and others) pay so other can ride for free. It is the American way. If people would pay 5 dollars a month (less then the cost of a McDonald's lunch) then Tim could upgrade.