CubinNY
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5-6 Cubs (Marshall) @ Padres (Peavy) 9:05 CT WGN TV
CubinNY replied to Modzilla's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Best game thread start ever! I hope Modzilla bans Dusty from the Cubs dugout if they don't score any runs tonight. -
5/5 Cubs (Zambrano) @ San Diego (Chan Ho) 9:05 p.m. CSN+
CubinNY replied to B's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
For which team? -
5/5 Cubs (Zambrano) @ San Diego (Chan Ho) 9:05 p.m. CSN+
CubinNY replied to B's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
OK, I firmly believe Dusty is actively trying to get fired. That is right up there with a late '90s Cub lineup. Wholy Christ, I haven't missed listening to a game this year, but I don't know if I can handle this. -
viewtopic.php?t=31325 :D :x :D
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We all have our opinions and I respect yours. I just plotted all of 2005 results and comparied them to 2006 thus far and feel even more confident now. The Cubs as of right now today are "dead nuts" in the middle of the pack. 8th out of 16 teams in the NL. Last year they finished 7th out of 16. It's not an opinion. here is an informative website. http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/regrmean.htm
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Talk about a trade
CubinNY replied to larhur's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Pie or Coats should be brought up anyways, just to replace slappy Pierre. We still would need a big bat. Wait, so you want the team to score even fewer runs than it already does? It's a wonderful idea to replace the guy leading the team in Runs scored. how do you know there will be a dropoff? pierre has been horrible thus far, regardless of him leading the team in runs scored. that's just an indicator of how bad this offense really is. It's also an indicator of where he bats in the line up. One can slap as much make up on Pierre's performance as they want, but it still won't be pretty. -
Scott, all I'm going to say is that you are trying to fit a square peg (regression analysis) into a round hole (team winning %). The metric is entirely off base, even if the theme is not.
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Since when has having more than two pitches become a prerequisit for being a successful starter? As Tim and I have stated, it is way too early to judge Hill. The Cubs cannot constantly yank a guy from AAA to the majors, and then from starter to reliever, and then from the majors to AAA and expect that pitcher to be successful. That is exactly what the Cubs have done with Hill among others. Hill needs a decent # of starts to show if he can do it (and I'm not saying he can). And he needs to know that if he has a bad outing or two his bags are not headed to Iowa. An organizations needs to do everyithing in its power to set up the young player for success.
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While what you say is true in theory, a guy with one major league pitch isn't gonna succeed, at least not as a starter for long. His fastball is average at best. Are you talking about velocity or location? If it's veloicty, save it.
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http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=133380&statType=1 I don't really see much of a difference. Exactly. Aramis has always been a dead pull hitter. I'm glad he is taking more walks
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Actually, the Cruz vs. Zambrano issue was back when Baylor was still manager (2002). When Dusty took over in 2003, Zambrano was firmly in the rotation. Thanks for the correction. Could you imagine what like would be like without Z?
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Maddux sucked his first year in the majors. So did a lot of future good pitchers. Hill has been up and down, up and down. The same way with Mitre and a few others. Heck, Dusty couldn't decide who to throw in the bullpen in Z or Cruze. It is way too early to tell on Hill. The Cubs have to give him at least 6 or 7 consecutive starts to see if he can do it. I wouldn't even look at the W/L record. I'd look at ks, bb, k/bb, GB:FB and all sorts of "unimportant" numbers to judge Hill by. They seem to do this with all rookies, "produce now are get out" while the give the "proven vet" much more time.
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Some people actually predicted that the Cubs would have a hard time scoring runs this year. The problems we are seeing this year are the same problems of last year and the year before. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see it. I wonder why Hendry doesn't see it though. And that problem is not injuries. Clearly not true Cubs fans No, mostly the people who are just here for the chicken wings.
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Some people actually predicted that the Cubs would have a hard time scoring runs this year. The problems we are seeing this year are the same problems of last year and the year before. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see it. I wonder why Hendry doesn't see it though. And that problem is not injuries.
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Pujols' "bat-throwing" incident (explanation)
CubinNY replied to K-Town's topic in General Baseball Talk
What explains the Pujols not hustling to first incident? -
On Mike and Mike, Gammons implied that he thought Clemmns was going to stay in Houston.
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He's better than Neifi and Bynum. Not really. He's probably getting traded for Clark. That would be great. Maybe they'll trade Rusch with him and then he can shut out the Cubs too. :D
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I'm probably going to reveal my math ineptitude here, but oh well... Doesn't the mean have to be .500? If each game always results in a win and a loss, and there are X number of games, then there will always be just as many wins as losses each season leaguewide. Now---in each division it's not necessarily the case of course. No. The mean is the average. The median is the middle and the mode is the number that comes up at the highest frequency. When people talk about regression toward the mean it means that the performance is likely to revert to an historical average. For example if St. Louis regress toward the mean of the last 5 years, this year they will likely win 96 games (100,105,85,97,93/5). Not so good for us Cub fans. Ouch. Let's find a string of seasons where St. Louis was terrible and call that their historical average instead! :D I get what Scott is saying, but really there is no mean in this instance. Each season is a discrete data set when talking about a team metric. The analogy just doesn't work becuase too many variables are different so as to make it impossible to use one season as a bench mark for the next in this instance (even though fans like to do that sort of thing).
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I'm probably going to reveal my math ineptitude here, but oh well... Doesn't the mean have to be .500? If each game always results in a win and a loss, and there are X number of games, then there will always be just as many wins as losses each season leaguewide. Now---in each division it's not necessarily the case of course. No. The mean is the average. The median is the middle and the mode is the number that comes up at the highest frequency. When people talk about regression toward the mean it means that the performance is likely to revert either up or down to an historical average . For example if St. Louis regress toward the mean of the last 5 years, this year they will likely win 96 games (100,105,85,97,93/5). Not so good for us Cub fans.
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He was also very young and comming off of almost constant work the year before. And it is not so much the innings but the pitch counts in those innings. Anyway you slice it, he's soft. And he needs to get tougher, and he needs to get tougher soon. You crack me up. Have you ever met Prior? You act like I enjoy coming to these realizations about my second favorite Cubs player in the last 10 years. I don't, but at some point, I have to stop making excuses for even my favorite players. I don't need to MEET him to look at his track record. it has every relavence. If you don't know someone, have never met or spoken to someone, don't know how little or much they work towards a goal, how can you possible call that person soft, a wuss, a sissy, a girl? We went through this last year when people said Patterson was stupid, lazy, and doesn't care. How do you know what his injury status is? Are you privy to information no one else is? How do you know the Cubs aren't lying and there really is something wrong with him? How do you know he hasn't told the Cubs to not disclose his medical status? It is not making excuses for Prior. Last year he was hit on the elbow by a line drive and came back, after he ran into Giles he came back. That doesn't sound like someone who is soft to me. That is part of his track record too.
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He was also very young and comming off of almost constant work the year before. And it is not so much the innings but the pitch counts in those innings. Anyway you slice it, he's soft. And he needs to get tougher, and he needs to get tougher soon. You crack me up. Have you ever met Prior?
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He was also very young and comming off of almost constant work the year before. And it is not so much the innings but the pitch counts in those innings.
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My panties are in a bunch for an entirely different reason. I don't care about whether he's on the bench. I think his injuries could easily be related to the misuse of past years. When Dusty was hired I predicted that at least 1 of the big 3 (who were all healthy at the time), and probably 2, would miss a lot of time to injury and/or lose effectiveness during his tenure. I'm not pissed at Prior himself. I'm pissed that the Cubs decided 12 years ago to try and emulate the Braves, and have thus far done a piss-poor job of even coming close. I think the "we'll put all our hopes on the arms and just trade for bats later" gameplan was a very bad one. And not only was the plan bad, but the implementation of the plan has been bad. Pitcher injuries are extremely common, and when you risk pitcher's health as brazenly as the Cubs do, you should not be surprised when multiple pitchers go down. I don't disagree at all. To me Prior seems to be the victim here.
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I have to think the Cubs are getting pretty frustrated with Prior as well, which is why they've not really talked about his rehab much. Maybe after the debacle of the last injury, Prior asked the Cubs not to talk to the media about this one?
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Why do people feel it necessary to constanty question Prior's manhood? No one here knows how much pain he is in, or his workout regim, or how sick he was over the winter, or anything about his character. I am as frustrated as anyone that he seems to be unable to pitch, but I believe if he were able to he'd be out there. This is the smae kid who threw 200+ innings in 2003 and the same one who didn't back down to Bonds. I don't think he has the willingness to push himself through anything. I don't believe for a second that a strained shoulder and an illness in January should be enough to keep him out this long. I wish we could go back in time and draft Tex. Prior is a very good talent, but he has to actually pitch in order to be of any use to this team. Maybe he pitched too much in 2002 and 2003 and we are seeing the after affects? I'm not saying it is so but as long as we can make wild speculation on what is ailing Prior this should not be out of bounds either. If the injury is beyond Prior's control, asking him to suck it up is like asking Derrek Lee to suck it up and play first. But more to the point, what does it matter that he wasn't sitting on the bench last night? That's what seems to have everyone's painties in a bunch here.