HoopsCubs

I'd rather go with Dave Roberts than Podsednik. As for Jenkins, he really looks like he's going downhill quick. I'd pass.

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Cubs may be interested in having Soriano play CF. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5977638 "The Cubs view Soriano as an option in center."

Thanks. First one since May 16. I plan to take a few more in the Fall after a tough work-filled summer.

Some free time on my day off... Chicago - In an early offseason move that could surely shake up the NL Central in 2007 and years to come, the Chicago Cubs traded their highly touted franchise prospect, OF Felix Pie, and promising pitchers Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol to the Atlanta Braves for CF Andruw Jones and starting pitcher Tim Hudson. In addition to the players, the Braves agreed to send the Cubs $11M in cash ($5M in 2008 and $6M in 2009) to help with Hudson's contract. The Cubs will be on the hook for $22M of Hudson's remaining 3 years and $33M, which includes $6M in 2007, and will owe Jones his entire $13.5M in 2007, his final year before free agency. The Cubs made the deal without getting Jones to agree to an extension similar to the Juan Pierre deal last year. Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, said, "Andruw represents a huge defensive and offensive boost to our club's chances in 2007; we're pretty confident we can have a good dialogue with him and his agents during the spring." Hudson has suffered through a few injuries and has not been as dominant as he was in the AL, but Hendry pointed out, "the fact that he pitched over 200 innings and is relatively young will be a big boost for our rotation, which has been decimated by injuries over the last 2+ seasons." Hudson will probably slot into the #2 spot in the rotation behind Cubs ace, Carlos Zambrano. While the deal will probably have negative impact on the Braves chances to get to the post-season in 2007, it does give them tremendous financial flexibility to re-build their team after a tough season in 2006. Not having to pay Jones and Hudson a combined $20M in 2007 and freeing up another $15M over the next 2 seasons does give Atlanta an opportunity to re-up with John Smoltz, and to find another impact bat and arm. Braves officials did not offer any explanation for the sudden trade, but one source close to the organization, on the condition of anonymity, made it clear that the team had come to the conclusion that trading Jones was imperative because there was no way he and the team could agree on an extension. It was believed that the Red Sox would be the front-runners for Jones, but the Braves could not turn down the Cubs offer when they were willing to part with Pie and take on a significant portion of Hudson's salary.

Hoops, do you really project Theriot as an everyday starter for the Cubs? I, like everyone, love what he has done for the Cubs in limited time this year...but is Theriot the Cubs version of Bo Hart (the 2B guy with the cool name that puts up inflated numbers in limited appearances)? Hey, why not? I've seen more from this guy in 3 weeks than fricking Ronny Cedeno has shown me in 5+ months. And there isn't a young superstar waiting on the free agency market. Sure, I'd take Ray Durham for a season, but he'll get a 3 year deal somewhere, which is too much risk. I'd go with Ryan and let him lead-off.

There's the right way of creating the roster and then there's the Hendry way. Sometimes there has been overlap between the two ways, but most of the time there hasn't been any. The right way of doing this is to recognize that Theriot and Murton can give the Cubs quality production at 2B and LF at very cheap prices, and to spend money (through trades or free agency) on adding power at SS and CF or RF (if Jones can be moved to CF). Of course, the Hendry way will be to trade Murton, stick Theriot in utility, let Izturis and Cedeno be your no hitting/slick fielding DP combo, and spend oodles of money on Carlos Lee in LF. Oh, so to answer your question: don't trade Murton!

Three things come to mind: (1) Ichiro is under contract for $11M in 2007. Free agent after the 2007 season. (2) Near as I can tell, he did not get a no-trade clause in his last deal. (3) On several occasions last year and last offseason, Suzuki questioned Seattle's commitment to winning and their managerial choice. If there is a private feeling amongst Seattle management and/or Ichiro that he will not be a Mariner in 2008, it may be in everybody's best interest to deal him this offseason. Cubs certainly have the financial wherewithall to get him, and his OBP would be a big improvement.

If the Dodgers are in a hurry to get out from under Drew's contract, then maybe they take Jones for Drew straight up? Jones @ 2/9 maybe looks better to them than Drew @ 3/33. Obviously the talent/production isn't balanced, but we've all seen crazier salary dumps than that. $24M saved is nothing to sneeze at, especially these days, when GMs are swapping contracts as much as they are players. But, does the extra $23M and 1 season you have to give Drew result in real offensive impact? Is it worth the 50 extra points in OBP and 20 less in SLG?

There is probably no statistical data to back up my hunch, but I view Soriano in his walk year as equivalent to Adrian Beltre in his walk year. Beltre was fairly mediocre OBP wise with the bat for most of his career, had the huge year in free agency year, got the huge contract in free agency, and well, you know the rest... basically a bust w.r.t. to the dollar value. Maybe Soriano has had better numbers in his first 5 seasons, but I still can't fathom he'd live up to a 5 year $70M deal. Somebody will pay it, but if I were Hendry, I'd steer clear.

I could see Hendry making a trade for a guy like Tim Hudson. I am nearly certain the Braves will be shopping him this Winter.

I'd give him 4/$60 with an option year at $14m. Agreed, assuming its a team option. I get the feeling (a gut feeling, admittedly) that Aramis' relative lack of conditioning will eventually catch up with him. We're so screwed. Hello Rich Aurillia. I too think Aramis will be playing somewhere else next year. However, I still think a competent guy like Mike Lowell will be manning 3B in 2007. While the offseason prospects may seem bleak right now, I still expect Hendry to be aggressive and field a good team able to make the post-season. I still feel there will be a lot of trades this winter and expect Hendry to use the Tribune money as an advantage in this endeavor. I am not expecting much out of Hendry in free agency - except for him to take a serious look at Jason Schmidt.

Any good rumors on him at all today? He's been decent for the Cubs (.832 OPS). And considering the Rangers paid most of his salary this year and the Cubs had to only pay close to pro-rated league minimum and he's a free agent after this season, I am really surprised a team in the wild card hunt isn't looking to deal for him as a good power bat off the bench.

I don't anticipate a blow-up. The NL looks very weak to me, and if a big market club like the Cubs brought in 2 or 3 good players, they could become post-season favorites in a blink of an eye. If Aramis were to leave, I could see Jim Hendry making a trade for Mike Lowell, a guy that he has liked in the past. Lowell is under contract for just 2007 at $9M, and the Red Sox will probably be looking to shed his salary this offseason, so that they can move Youkilis to 3B and focus dollars on better pitching. While Lowell doesn't replace Ramirez' production 100%, he would be a good 1 year stop gap if 2007 turned magical and it would buy Scott Moore some more time in the minors to determine if he's for real. I'd rather see a guy like Lowell than a Pedro Feliz or David Bell.

I still like the idea of trading for Miguel Tejada (keep Murton in LF, move Izturis to 2B) or Pat Burrell (platoon Murton with Jones). If Hendry were to take on most of the salary on either guy (3 years / $38M on Tejada not including signing bonus and 2/27 on Burrell), I can't imagine the Cubs would have to trade back any top tier prospects. As inflated as those salaries might be, they're still better than paying 5 years and $70M for Soriano or Carlos Lee. Of course, I don't know if either Tejada or Burrell will be on the trading block this Winter, but their names often pop up in trade discussions. Hoops

I often wonder how much, if any, "you scratch my back/I'll scratch your back" may be going in on baseball behind the scenes. Take the Greg Maddux trade for example. Scott Boras, who was involved in the last minute deal that sent Maddux to LA, supposedly has an excellent rapport with Hendry. When I heard about that deal on the 31st, the first thing that I thought of was that the deal was done as a favor to Maddux, and now Boras will steer one of his clients to the Cubs in the offseason. Wasn't it Scott Boras, who desperately got his client Jeff Weaver out of Detroit at a trading deadline, only to surprisingly push Pudge Rodriguez to sign with the Tigers an offseason later? I also seem to remember a trading deadline that Boras pushed Steve Phillips to take on Kenny Rogers, and then followed it up by having one of his other clients sign with the Mets the following offseason. Anyway, just some thinking out loud on my part to see if a Barry Zito or a Carlos Lee is magically going to appear in Cubbie Blue this offseason due to Hendry taking care of Maddux. Hoops

Every scenario has an "if." But, what I am pleased to see or read here is that a decorated, non-Chicago writer is talking about this subject and Fredi Gonzalez, in particular.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/sports_columnists/article/0,1299,DRMN_83_4926113,00.html From the newest hall of fame writer: "Atlanta third base coach Fredi Gonzalez is getting strong consideration for the Cubs managerial job if a move is made with Dusty Baker. Gonzalez managed in the Florida system when Cubs GM Jim Hendry scouted for the Marlins."

I think the guy he will bump out of the rotation is Mark Prior. I think there is very strong possibility that the Cubs will shut Prior down for the rest of the season. Zambrano, Marmol, Guzman, Hill and Mateo for now. When Wade is ready, he will replace one of those guys, and if and when Marshall is ready, he'll replace a second guy. We're going to get a good look at a lot of these guys these last 6+ weeks now that Maddux, Wood and most likely Prior are not part of the picture.

Let's assume you are right and that is the rotation. Let's also assume that the payroll is around $100M. Then, Hendry will still have approx. $24M that he can spend - what's/who's he spending it on? How much does ARod make again? :D Considering the money Texas picked up in the deal that sent him to New York, I'm approximating that New York is on the hook for $16M per season for 4 more seasons (2007-2010). :wink:

Let's assume you are right and that is the rotation. Let's also assume that the payroll is around $100M. Then, Hendry will still have approx. $24M that he can spend - what's/who's he spending it on?

He's owed $7M guaranteed in 2007 plus he's breaking down even more - it would have been a huge risk for a team to claim him, IMHO.

Assuming Arizona took on a significant share of Livan's salary for next year, the Nats just cleared some more dollars to pay Soriano.

I am getting that sense too, though I would still platoon Murton with Jones in RF, sign Dave Roberts to play CF and get a big bat for LF. It does seem that Hendry will use his $25-30M to address starting pitching, but that's just a guess at this point.

'07 Pedro - $14mil Delgado - $14.5mil Wagner - 10.5 Glavine - scaled anywhere from $5.5mil to $14mil LoDuca - 6.25 Zambrano (arb) - over $3 Oliver Perez (arb) - over $2 Dave Williams (arb) - over 1.5 Julio Franco - 1.1mil Ramon Casto (arb) - over $1 Alay Soler - 900k Jose Reyes - 2.5 Duaner Sanchez (renew) Wright - $1mil Heilman - renew V. Diaz - renew Philip Humber - ML Contract about 800k Lastings Milledge - renew Mike Pelfry - 1.33 (more if on 25man) '08 Pedro - $11mil Delgado - $16mil Wagner - 10.5 Reyes - 4 Duaner Sanchez (arb) Ramon Castro (arb) Dave Williams (arb) Ol. Perez (arb) V. Zambrano (arb) Wright - $5 Heilman (renew) V. Diaz - renew Philip Humber - ML Contract about 800k Lastings Milledge - renew Mike Pelfry - 1.33 (more if on 25man) '09 Delgado - $16mil or $4mil buyout Wagner - $10.5 Reyes - 5.75 Duaner Sanchez (arb) Dave Williams (arb) Ol. Perez (arb) Wright - 7.5 Heilman (arb) V. Diaz - arb Philip Humber - ML Contract about 800k Lastings Milledge - renew Mike Pelfry - 1.33 (more if on 25man) '10 Wagner -$8 or $1 buyout Reyes - 9 Duaner Sanchez (arb) Wright - 10 Heilman (arb) V. Diaz - arb Lastings Milledge - arb '11 Reyes - 11 or 500k buyout Wright - 14 Heilman (arb) V. Diaz - arb Lastings Milledge - arb '12 Wright - 15 Lastings Milledge - arb '13 Wright - 16 or $1mil buyout That doesn't include people likely not in the long-term plans. Is there any reason why you didn't include Carlos Beltran's numbers?

How do you think that will impact Aramis' decision regarding the opt-out clause, and what will Hendry do now? My opinion: the price for Aramis is now 5 years $55M.