Jump to content
North Side Baseball

  • With Scrappy Series Win, Cubs Earn Right to Keep Fighting

    Matt Trueblood

    By Matt Trueblood

    It seemed to take every drop of blood and sweat they had in them. It happened despite an injury to one cornerstone of the team and a bad performance by another, each of which loom as the team looks toward the second half. The Cubs managed a winning week heading into the All-Star break, though, and they're not (yet) cornered into selling at the deadline.

    Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

    Cubs Video

     

    When Marcus Stroman let the game get away from him in the sixth inning Thursday afternoon against the Brewers, you didn't have to squint to see the writing on the wall. There was, in that moment, a very good chance that the Cubs would tumble into the break, nearly 10 games out of the lead in the NL Central and without any serious right to be anything but sellers during trade season, which begins in earnest as soon as the Draft and the All-Star Game end on Tuesday.

    Nor was a hiccup from Stroman, the Cubs' co-ace, the only reason for that rapidly rising sense of doom and gloom. Dansby Swanson was already sidelined, after suffering a heel contusion running the bases Wednesday. The script went: Cubs lose, after Stroman comes undone in a close game. Cubs go to New York, where they've never beaten the Yankees before, without either of their top two starters lined up to pitch there. Cubs end the first half deflated, seven or nine games under .500 and eight or nine games behind the division lead. It seemed painfully obvious how it would all unfold.

    The Cubs went off script. Two-run homers by Cody Bellinger and Yan Gomes brought them back to tie the game Thursday, and though they went on to lose the game, they had showed some fight just when they seemed to be out of it. Friday night in New York, Jameson Taillon had his best start as a Cub (not saying as much as we wish it did, of course, but it would also have been several other people's best starts as a Cub) and the team earned a surprising win. Drew Smyly continues to be a source of some concern, as the regression monster is not so much biting him as swallowing him whole, but after the loss Saturday, the Cubs managed a comeback win Sunday.

    That the Yankees helped them out with that series victory, by way of some sloppy defense and wild pitching from the bullpen, doesn't really matter. The Cubs took advantage of their opponents' mistakes. That's often the key to victory, and too often, the Cubs haven't managed to do it. 

    The risk that the team will have to cave in and sell at the deadline is still very real. They're seven games out of the division lead, and equally far out of the third Wild Card position. They'll have to answer a lot of questions on the homestand they have beginning later this week, against the Red Sox, Nationals, and Cardinals. That's 10 games. If they win fewer than five of them, they have to sell at the deadline. If they win five, they'll still be in a holding pattern, but the pressure will be ratcheted up, because it'll be vital that they win at least five of their last seven games before the deadline. If they win six, they can start to gently lean toward selling, but they'll need to develop discussions on both sides of the market, nonetheless.

    It's seven. Seven is the magic number. Seven games out of playoff position, seven wins needed to truly turn toward buying, and No. 7, Swanson, whom they need to return as soon as possible and at as close to full strength as possible. In seven games this past week, the team clawed out enough wins and showed well enough in their losses to earn a bit more time to dream and dare. In the next two weeks, they need seven wins to fully climb back into the mix. 

    Twice this season, the club has shown the capacity to get that hot. After starting 1-3, they streaked to 11-6. Then, in mid-June, they had that even hotter streak, winning 10 of 12 against the Giants, Pirates, and Orioles. It would be nice to have seen longer stretches of good play, or more of them, but at least the proof of concept is in place. Now, David Ross and his squad need to go get the job done, so that the front office can justify building upon the foundation they've laid.

     

    Think you could write a story like this? North Side Baseball wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

    MORE FROM NORTH SIDE BASEBALL
    — Latest Cubs coverage from our writers
    — Recent Cubs discussion in our forums
    — Follow NSBB via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a North Side Baseball Caretaker

     Share
     Share
    Go to articles

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments

    Featured Comments

    Billy62

         In a nutshell Matt this has been the Cubs this year. They can be so "Jekyll and Hyde". There are times that this team comes on like world beaters and can stand toe to toe with the leagues elite. Then there are times when this team can't seem to get out of its own way. Inconsistency seems to be their mantra. Offensively, still a whole lot of swing and miss. I can only hope that as a team they can improve on this in the second half. Starting pitching so far has been this teams saving grace. The starters have been doing the job. The pen has been both sides of the coin. I still feel this team is going to improve as the season progresses. The division is not out of reach and nobody really has a handle on it. I am hoping that the team can start ripping the cover off the ball like they were a month ago. If this team can do that, anything is possible.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    stitchface

    This seems very short-sighted - winning this series doesn't move the needle on this team's level and shouldn't change the plan at all. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Billy62

         I get it Stitch, If this team were in any other division I think you would be absolutely correct. But this division is full of teams that are under-performing. I know they usually say all that you have to get is a ticket to post-season play. I do not think that is the case with this division. Whoever wins it will likely exit in the first round. But, just to get there would be a huge feather in the cap for this team, and would be something to build on. Remember, there was a 2014 and 2015 before 2016. This team will definitely have to improve, but I think they will be helped along by a Reds team that I feel will begin to fade, and a Brewers squad that hasn't as of yet reached for the brass ring. I know it probably isn't probable, but it is possible. Afterall, the chance of real success is why are Cub fans after all. 🙂

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    CubUgly
    31 minutes ago, stitchface said:

    This seems very short-sighted - winning this series doesn't move the needle on this team's level and shouldn't change the plan at all. 

    So what is the plan?  I mean - I agree one series should not change the plan - but I don't think we're at a point where there is just one plan, do you?  Better have multiple plans ready. 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Transmogrified Tiger

    The secret is that because they plan to be competitive in 2024, whether they are truly in the hunt at the end of July 2023 doesn't make a big difference in what trades they might make.  This goes double when there's only a couple teams who might meaningfully sell(e.g.  make 2024 worse to improve 2025 and beyond), and no one really approaching a 'last stand' of competitiveness they need to buy to maximize, so the players available and the players being asked about in return are similar either way.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Brock Beauchamp
    21 hours ago, stitchface said:

    This seems very short-sighted - winning this series doesn't move the needle on this team's level and shouldn't change the plan at all. 

    I get what you're saying - and you're not really wrong - but this division is weak and it's early enough that the trade market hasn't materialized yet anyway. The Cubs aren't missing anything by punting on a decision today while the team still has a chance to move back into contention.

    In essence, wins are good and it's not hurting anything to stay neutral in the trade market for the time being, given that the trade market doesn't really exist yet.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    stitchface
    2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    I get what you're saying - and you're not really wrong - but this division is weak and it's early enough that the trade market hasn't materialized yet anyway. The Cubs aren't missing anything by punting on a decision today while the team still has a chance to move back into contention.

    In essence, wins are good and it's not hurting anything to stay neutral in the trade market for the time being, given that the trade market doesn't really exist yet.

    I think the positive RD is a better justification than beating a struggling yankees team without it's best player though - really, they have underperformed record wise so the thought process should be whether that is the result of something other than luck and can they fix it? Looking at a baseball landscape that is increasingly haves and have nots, to me, the cubs should be clearly in the haves and that should be the long-term plan. so, whether they trade now should be decided by what best suits the long-term plan not what happens in a given series here or there. if they get in and lose a first round series doesn't make much difference to me, this isn't 1995.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Brock Beauchamp
    1 minute ago, stitchface said:

    I think the positive RD is a better justification than beating a struggling yankees team without it's best player though - really, they have underperformed record wise so the thought process should be whether that is the result of something other than luck and can they fix it? Looking at a baseball landscape that is increasingly haves and have nots, to me, the cubs should be clearly in the haves and that should be the long-term plan. so, whether they trade now should be decided by what best suits the long-term plan not what happens in a given series here or there. if they get in and lose a first round series doesn't make much difference to me, this isn't 1995.

    Oh, without a doubt the RD is more telling than any single series. I think the most important aspect of the Yankees series is that the Cubs just need to start rattling off Ws or that run differential isn't going to matter.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Outshined_One

    My current issue is whether the Reds and Brewers have put too much space between them and the Cubs, especially since the new schedule rules mean the Cubs only play the Reds 8 more times and the Brewers 6 more times.

    If the Cubs can rattle off a few winning streaks and make up ground that way, then great, but it involves a heck of a lot more scoreboard watching than you'd want for a team with a 9.8% chance of making the playoffs (per FanGraphs).  They basically can't afford to get swept at this point.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites


    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...