Which Arbitration-Eligible Cubs Will Be Tendered Contracts Next Month?

Often, teams enter the winter knowing that decisions about whether to offer arbitration to eligible players will be crucial to their plans. This off-season, however, that will be a relatively small part of the Cubs' planning. They have only four arbitration-eligible players. None project to be high-dollar signings, but in the Tom Ricketts era, every penny needs to be scrutinized, if not pinched. Of the four, two players feel like no-brainers, but each one is worth a brief discussion.

Here's the list, along with the projections from MLB Trade Rumors for each player's salary via the arbitration system:

• Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9 million
• Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55 million
• Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1 million
• Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9 million

Reese McGuire, C
McGuire had his moments as an unexpected fill-in when Miguel Amaya went down with injury. Perhaps 'unexpected' is the wrong word, though; Amaya does have an extensive injury history.

The veteran backup catcher's first game was electric. He hit two home runs in Cincinnati hours after his emergency call-up. That, however, was his zenith. McGuire ended with a .225 batting average and only a .245 on-base percentage, though he did continue to run into long balls on occasion. 

Advanced metrics paint a dire picture of his offensive skill set, too. His wRC+ was only 86, which is 14 percent below a league-average hitter. He did make major changes to his swing this year, and it now profiles more like left-handed José Ramírez (exciting!) or Kyle Massey (less so), after looking a lot like fellow backstops Jonah Heim (yuck) and Ben Rortvedt (double yuck) in 2024. However, he made disastrously bad swing decisions, leading to a low strikeout rate but a virtually non-existent walk rate and a lot of weak contact. There's no reason to think he will improve much at bat as he enters his 30s.

McGuire is likely to leave the Cubs this offseason. They will hope for another solid season from starting backstops Carson Kelly and Amaya, and with more reps in Iowa, Moisés Ballesteros might just earn a look behind the plate in the majors. McGuire had some moments, but there's no chance the Cubs will pay $1.9 million to retain him. They might be able to trade him for an out-of-options reliever with upside or something, but either way, he will be off the roster by the start of December.

Justin Steele, LHP
A projected $6.55-million salary is enough to matter, given that Steele probably won't be back until at least midseason. It's not nearly enough to make the team consider non-tendering him, though. Steele underwent Tommy John surgery in April and should be ready for a significant contribution, but it'll come after a slow first-half ramp-up. There's no real decision to make here; Steele will be back at Wrigley as soon as he is healthy enough to toe the mound. The interesting question is whether the Cubs will view this injury as an opportunity to lock Steele up on a medium-length deal on team-friendly terms, rather than go year-to-year and pay a full-season salary for a partial season of work.

The main area of concern with Steele is workload. He'll be treated much like Cade Horton was in 2025. We won't know how Steele looks until he's out there, of course, but there's no choice but to wait and see.

Eli Morgan, RHP
A mere $1.1 million seems a small price for a cromulent reliever. Questions remain on if Morgan is that, though. The right-handed relief pitcher could only total 20 innings on the season while battling elbow injuries. The decision on Morgan will be if he is worth a coveted 40-man roster spot throughout the winter. They may prefer to protect Rule 5-eligible players like Brandon Birdsell or James Triantos, if they are concerned another organization would select them. They also could non-tender him to free up his space for another reliever reclamation project. 

This one could come down to how much the front office feels they have to spend this winter. If the wallet is wide open, they could retain Andrew Kittredge (which would cost $9 million) and/or Colin Rea ($6 million), and that would likely squeeze Morgan out of the picture. If they foresee a tighter budget, Morgan's much lower salary (and the chance to have him under control again for 2027) might appeal to them.

Javier Assad, RHP
Like the other two pitchers in the list, Assad battled injuries in 2025. Assad hurt his oblique, then hurt it again, and never really got his footing. Unlike Morgan, however, Assad can start and pitch in relief. For what looks to be less than $2 million, he'll likely stick around for another season. At the very least, he's worth more than that on the open market, so he'd have trade value. It's hard not to assign significant weight to the fact that the Cubs left him off a pitching-hungry NLDS roster; they might like something they're offered for him more than they like the man himself. Non-tendering him, however, would be a bizarre choice.

And that's it! The Cubs (probably) let two go and keep the other two around, and can then go about their bigger business, filling in the gap between their high-priced veterans and their rough-edged pre-arbitration stars.