Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-to-Cubs Rumors Risk Absurdity, on a Couple of Levels

For the third time in four years, the Cubs have their fans painted into a corner. As was true in 2021 and 2023, this team entered this season with some measure of expectation and hope, and with relatively high stakes. As a result, the team has done its best to stay in "buyer" mode as trade-deadline season approaches, and fans are casting about for season-saving external solutions. This week, that means Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso.

Here's the thing: the Cubs are a 32-34 team. That's the exact same record the Blue Jays have. Yet, in the minds of rumor-mongers, the idea here is that the Cubs are buyers and the Jays are sellers. Although the NL Central is eminently more winnable than the AL East, that idea stands right on the precipice of absurdity. Guerrero is not a free agent until after 2025. The Blue Jays face no more pressure to trade him than the Cubs should feel to trade Cody Bellinger. 

The Cubs have better playoff odds than do the Jays, according to FanGraphs, but it's a difference of degree (and relatively small degree), not a difference of kind. 

Using PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus, the two are in a virtual dead heat in terms of playoff odds. This is becoming an annual rite. Until the collapse that forced them to sell in 2021, the Cubs were treated like surefire buyers. That made sense at the time; it was the last gasp of the team's championship core. Still, even before they plunged into a losing streak that would have doomed anyone, that team felt like a paper tiger. Rumors that they would expend further resources to reinforce the group just felt out of place.

Last season was an even more stark example. As late as July 20 or so, the Cubs were much more in a position to sell than to buy at the deadline, but rumors still focused on moves that would involve bringing in star-caliber players from teams who had better records than the Cubs did.

This isn't hard to explain or understand. It's more fun to dream on acquiring stars and making splashes than on moves designed to improve a team's depth or ones that involve trading away short-term talent to build for the future. Still, it's emblematic of a strange problem that seems to plague Cubdom right now, from the ownership suite out to the bleacher seats. There's a bizarre sense among many people within the Cubs sphere that top-tier talent should always flow to the Cubs, no matter what the standings say or what other teams might be trying to do.

During the offseason, this is slightly more plausible, although too many fans assume that other teams balanced on the line between going for it and rebuilding will happily slide to the latter side to accommodate the Cubs. As I've said several times, the Cubs should absolutely be more proactive in the trade market, and spend much more money in free agency. 

With a season underway, though, the team is much more locked in. They can continue to seek external improvements, but only the incumbent options playing better can heal what ails the Cubs in any meaningful measure. More importantly, it's ludicrous to keep hoping that teams exactly as good (or bad, as the case may be) will spontaneously decide that the Cubs should get their best players--or that the Cubs, absent evidence that they're going to turn the corner, should be interested in paying what it would cost to get a player like Guerrero.

You have to earn the right to be a big trade-deadline buyer. That means either having a hot start and proving yourself one of the best teams in the league, or coming into the season as a clear and complete favorite in your division or league. The Cubs haven't done either of those things in any season since 2019. Right now, it's not even clear that Guerrero (whose defensive value is nil and who has hit too many ground balls this year to access the raw power still evident in his game) would give this team that much of a boost. He has some of the same flaws and vulnerabilities that have made Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ so frustratingly inconsistent during their time as linchpins of the Cubs lineup, and bringing him in would not only cost a huge amount of controllable talent, but muddy the playing time picture for Michael Busch, Bellinger, and others.

Jed Hoyer's group can and should have internal discussions about any talented player who might be available. The Blue Jays are no more likely to talk to them about Guerrero than they are to talk to them about Bellinger, though, and if the Cubs or their fans don't like that, there's a simple (though not easy) solution: the front office needs to build a much better roster, and then that roster has to play better. Until then, it'll feel pretty silly when rumors like these pop up.