The Reckoning is Here: Pete Crow-Armstrong Must Rein in Swing Rate to Get Back on Track

For the season, Pete Crow-Armstrong's OBP has slipped below .300. That underscores the risk inherent to his free-swinging approach, and it's not unfamiliar to Cubs fans. Javier Báez, for whom Crow-Armstrong was acquired back in 2021, was as electrifying as Crow-Armstrong, and could go on stretches of dominating in all facets of the game, just as Crow-Armstrong does. However, when Báez would go into even a fairly normal funk, the cracks that existed in the foundations of his game would be rapidly exposed. Players who hardly ever walk (and especially those who don't walk because they swing at an extreme rate, making it hard for them to consistently barrel the ball) have a lower floor than those with more well-roundedness to their games, of course, but when you follow such a player over the course of their career, you also come to realize that they're often closer to that floor than they feel.

That's not to say that Crow-Armstrong—who remains one of the best defensive players in baseball; still steals bases when he does get on; and has hit seven home runs and seven doubles over that 30-game slide—is not helping the Cubs at all right now. It's just that his star has quickly lost a bit of its heat, due to the way he's racking up outs. Swinging this much does limit one's capacity to dominate, even if Crow-Armstrong's unexpected ability to fully tap into his power has allowed him to live closer to that ceiling than anyone expected three months ago.

For the past month, Crow-Armstrong is swinging at over 80% of pitches inside the zone and over half of those outside the zone. The effect on his overall production (wOBA, in blue) is easy to see.

We're not back to Square One, here, because of that newfound power. Crow-Armstrong was much more of a mess at the beginning of this season and at this time last year than he is right now. However, if he wants to heat back up and be an above-average offensive player—let alone the MVP candidate he was for parts of April and throughout May—he needs to swing less. Last August, when he heated up for the first time in his big-league career, it was by cutting down on chases. Earlier this year, it was by cutting down on swings within the zone, waiting not just for a strike, but for a pitch he could truly drive.

We've seen Crow-Armstrong at his worst, and at his best. Right now, he's comfortably between the two extremes. Because of the nature of his profile, though, that's a bit less comforting than it sounds. Michael Busch should resume his place in the cleanup spot against right-handed pitchers, for the foreseeable future, and Crow-Armstrong should go back to batting sixth. Even then, though, the Cubs would like to be able to expect more from their center fielder than they've gotten for the last few weeks.

It's not only Báez who illustrates the risks associated with not making this adjustment. Cubs fans who remember the early 2000s know an even better one. Corey Patterson's breakout 2003 campaign was thwarted by a disastrous knee injury, but even before he got hurt, there were signs of trouble. His extremely aggressive approach led to a steep dropoff in production early that summer, as the league got a firmer handle on how to attack him. Throughout 2004, he had very high peaks and very low valleys, because his approach dictated volatility. In 2005, when he settled in at an in-zone swing rate right near Crow-Armstrong's current one, his career cratered and the Cubs (eventually) gave up on him. 

Crow-Armstrong isn't yet in danger of that same fate, and we'll never know how things might have been different if Patterson hadn't gotten hurt. One thing is clear, though: this extreme approach requires that Crow-Armstrong make major changes when the league makes major changes in how they attack him. So far, he's fighting to keep up with that rapid pace of adjustment. Since he's already demonstrated a certain brilliance in that area, though, he's earned the benefit of the doubt for a little while longer.