Sources: Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals Have Discussed Seth Lugo Trade

The Chicago Cubs and the Kansas City Royals had discussions this week about a trade that could send right-handed starter Seth Lugo to the North Siders, sources familiar with the negotiations said. Right now, the Royals aren't ready to become sellers, and GM J.J. Picollo went on a public campaign this week to downplay rumors that the team is moving into that mode. However, even Picollo admitted that it's possible his team could land in a situation in which they'd be forced to consider selling, and that seems right around the corner now.

With an utterly impotent offense, Kansas City is plummeting in the American League standings. They lost their fifth game in a row Thursday night, to hit the halfway point of their season on pace for 76 wins. Lugo, 35, is the player who would most obviously hit the trading block if the team does pivot in that direction. He's under contract for the balance of this year, on a salary of $15 million, and he has a player option for 2026 at the same price—but he seems almost certain to decline that, barring a catastrophic injury between now and the start of November. In effect, then, he's an impending free agent, and though the Royals could extend him a qualifying offer after he declines his option this fall, they could certainly get more than the value of an eventual compensatory draft pick by trading him this summer.

Last season, Lugo led the majors in starts (33) and the AL in batters faced (836). He won't match that feat this year, after a sprained finger on his pitching hand cost him the second half of May, but he's established himself as one of the most durable and consistent starters in baseball. He didn't become a full-time starter until 2023, at age 33, but since he did so (first with the Padres, now with the Royals), he's made 73 starts; averaged almost exactly six innings per start; and posted a 3.18 ERA. He doesn't rack up strikeouts the way some younger, harder-throwing alternatives might, but he limits walks and keeps the ball in the park very well. Depending on whom you ask, he throws eight, nine or 10 different pitches.

Lugo certainly cuts the figure of a pitcher in whom the Cubs would have interest, and according to sources familiar with the Royals' thinking, the Chicago farm system contains multiple players in whom Kansas City has long had interest. Hoyer and company would be loath to surrender any of the team's top few prospects in exchange for Lugo, though—not only because of his age and the $15 million they'd owe him if he blew out his elbow or shoulder next week, but because they believe they have multiple needs to fill. Lugo would check just one box on their list, and is likely to become a free agent this fall.

Therefore, if the Royals want (say) Jefferson Rojas or Owen Caissie as part of a package in exchange for Lugo, the Cubs might seek to do some one-stop shopping. Sources said the Cubs have also shown interest in infielder Jonathan India (who has played 20 games at third base this year, after spending his whole career at the keystone through 2024) and reliever Carlos Estévez, whom the Royals signed to a two-year deal this winter. Neither player is at the top of the Cubs' wishlist for the roles they would fill, but India and Estévez each have significant salaries, which could keep their acquisition cost down. They would also each come with team control for 2026.

The sweet spot could be a deal centered on Lugo and struggling Cubs outfield prospect Kevin Alcántara. The Cubs would have to include a strong second piece, though, sources said, and that could turn out to be a problem. Quickly, the team will run into hurdles this summer, because several of their key prospects are having rough seasons or are functionally untradeable. Alcántara, for instance, has such impressive tools that he nearly made the Opening Day roster and has been ranked inside the top 30 prospects in baseball by some outlets, but he's scuffling with Triple-A Iowa this year. In fact, he's getting worse each month, including slugging an anemic .328 in June. Ben Brown has been mentioned in talks between the teams, but like Alcántara, Brown has shown his warts this season and can't command a player like Lugo on his own.

The Cubs still have irons in many fires. In addition to reports that they've talked to the Pittsburgh Pirates about both Mitch Keller and David Bednar (which sources confirmed had taken place, but characterized as less active than the team's discussions with Kansas City as of the middle of this week), they're laying in wait to see what the Diamondbacks and Rangers each decide to do. The Twins are likely to trade Chris Paddack next month, a source said, and the Cubs would make sense as suitors for Paddack, too. Michael Soroka of the Nationals will be available, and is a dark-horse candidate to be an impactful starter in a new home down the stretch. Less desirable (but important, in that they give a sense of the floor the team might try to establish if they're unable to raise their ceiling) are targets like Tomoyuki Sugano and Aaron Civale. 

Kansas City loses little (and could gain much) by waiting out the market, even as they fall out of contention. The level of demand for pitching only moves in one direction as the trade deadline approaches. It will rise, and therefore, so will the prices on reliable, playoff-caliber starters. That's why the Cubs tried to get a deal done this week, and are believed to have standing offers out on at least two different starters as of Thursday night. They have neither the willingness nor the ability to simply push in an extra chip and force a deal across the finish line, however. For now, Lugo and the Cubs are a sensible fit, and talks remain active—but Hoyer is not close to checking off even the first item on his to-do list.