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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

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    Featured Comments

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,226

    Posted

    I trust the people who are saying Pivetta has gotten some pitches, but from my couch I think we've gotten the favorable side of the umpires calls all around today.

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 210

    Posted

    I do not want to see horsefeathers Thielbar today 

    Brian707

    Brian707 1,519

    Posted (edited)

    Palencia throwing

     Def Jam Burn GIF by Universal Music MY

    Edited by Brian707
    DrCub

    DrCub 71

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    We probably did a little. But I think the narrative of "oh no it's the Cubs offense again!" that this thread had been hard on is just not an accurate description of what's going on. He's generating those whiffs largely due to his own pitching. I don't think we were helping him nearly to the degree people here think. I'd say it's 70/30 in favor of Nick.

    Not even close.  More like 68/32…😜

    • Haha 1
    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Thielbar - Kittredge - Keller should be the blueprint from here. Lets find an insurance run somewhere and take this.

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    That's some clutch horsefeathers from Palencia.  I was a bit worried about him being too hyped for the moment, but he was completely in control.

    abuck1220

    abuck1220 207

    Posted

    guess his shoulder is ok my goodness. 

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Just now, DrCub said:

    Not even close.  More like 68/32…😜

    Confused Thinking GIF

    Me, a history teacher.

    • Haha 1
    SpongeWorthy

    SpongeWorthy 377

    Posted

    good job getting the lead while the shadows sit between home plate and the mound 

    Stratos

    Stratos 503

    Posted

    Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

    I do not want to see horsefeathers Thielbar today 

    Think we'll get a lot of him and Pomeranz this series.  Padres don't hit LHP well 

    ILMindState

    ILMindState 277

    Posted

    Good job Danny. Let's add on

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,226

    Posted

    Man, top of the order, with a presumably short leash on Cease tomorrow, if the Cubs add a couple here the Padres will have some decisions to make on their top end guys. Or, conversely, if our bullpen holds, they may have used them all for nothing. Let's get it done.

    Derwood

    Derwood 3,372

    Posted

    Is this Ben McDonald's first day as a broadcaster? My goodness is he bad

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 210

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Stratos said:

    Think we'll get a lot of him and Pomeranz this series.  Padres don't hit LHP well 

    true.. I trust Pomeranz a lot more

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    I do not want to see horsefeathers Thielbar today 

    ...but why? 

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    Let's say the Cubs get a base runner on ahead of Tucker.  Do you pull him here for a right handed batter against Morejon?

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    Still get the superpen....better with a lead though

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    BABIP luck going our way here. Nice. 

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,226

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

    Thielbar - Kittredge - Keller should be the blueprint from here. Lets find an insurance run somewhere and take this.

    I'm fine with Thielbar/Kittredge/Pomeranz if everyone does their job. Don't let the lefties beat you.

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    busch is a pro

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

    I'm fine with Thielbar/Kittredge/Pomeranz if everyone does their job. Don't let the lefties beat you.

    I think with how the lineup is going to roll over, you'll get the lefties in the 7th and then you'll be mostly RHP in the 8th and 9th. Like you'll see Sheets and Croenenworth soon, but then it'll be back to the Tatis-RHH top.

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    so is nico 

    731.4life

    731.4life 24

    Posted

    Got to capitalized with Ramon Laureano not in the game. That ball is caught with Ramon in LF and not Sheets.

    • Like 1
    squally1313

    squally1313 2,226

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Let's say the Cubs get a base runner on ahead of Tucker.  Do you pull him here for a right handed batter against Morejon?

    He doesn't really have splits, so I wouldn't. 

    Call it BABIP luck, call it defensive positioning, call it them just not being as good as defense as we are. I'll take it. 



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