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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

    Short Film: Path of Two Minds
    Novel: The Great, Horrible Tragedy

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    Featured Comments

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    It was still the right thing to do though even if it didn't work out.  Jackson Merrill is 3x the player Happ is and he laid down a bunt just a few innings before, it's time to play winning baseball 

    Ian Happ fWAR: 2.8
    Jackson Merril fWAR: 3.0

    Ian Happ wRC+: 116
    Jackson Merril wRC+: 116

    I'm not very good at math, but that isn't "three times" the player. That seems like, exactly as good as the other.

    Maybe you have Happ bunt, maybe you don't - some players just aren't good at it and by bunting you put yourself in an even worse position than the swing, but for the love of god, stop the Ian Happ hate.

    • Like 5
    • Love 1
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    how's ESPN gonna cut off Eddie Vedder singing the 7th inning stretch?

    • Like 2
    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Just now, UMFan83 said:

    how's ESPN gonna cut off Eddie Vedder singing the 7th inning stretch?

    spongebob squarepants interview GIF

    • Haha 2
    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 847

    Posted

    Having Happ bunt in front of Kyle Tucker is also not a particularly great idea at the moment, either.

    Frankly, if the roles were reversed, you'd probably have a better argument.

    BigSlick

    BigSlick 700

    Posted

    oh my god this is my first opportunity to see the score.... go cubs!!! i'm gonna be on pins and needles until the end of the game

    Illiterate Scholar

    Illiterate Scholar 98

    Posted

    Miller was likely going to come in if Busch got to 3rd with less than 2 outs. Totally fine with Happ not bunting 

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 209

    Posted (edited)

    3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    Ian Happ fWAR: .28
    Jackson Merril fWAR: 3.0

    Ian Happ wRC+: 116
    Jackson Merril wRC+: 116

    I'm not very good at math, but that isn't "three times" the player. That seems like, exactly as good as the other.

    Maybe you have Happ bunt, maybe you don't - some players just aren't good at it and by bunting you put yourself in an even worse position than the swing, but for the love of god, stop the Ian Happ hate.

    Yes, he's been hurt a lot this year.  His stats as a 21 year old rookie last year are better than Happ's best season.  He's a way, way better player.  That isn't even an insult to Happ.  Merrill is an up and coming star 

    And in any event, if you think they are the "same" player, then one of them shouldn't be so selfish as to not play winning baseball and do the little things needed to win 

    Edited by PeanutPunch33
    • Disagree 1
    chopsx9

    chopsx9 98

    Posted

    Vedder is a lead singer in a Hall of Fame band...right?

    We Got The Whole 9

    We Got The Whole 9 1,144

    Posted

    Pomeranz throwing BP hoping they dont pull one

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    6 more outs....the 8th will probably be the toughest.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    Yes, he's been hurt a lot this year.  His stats as a 21 year old rookie last year are better than Happ's best season.  He's a way, way better player.  That isn't even an insult to Happ.  Merrill is an up and coming star 

    Jackson Merril did have a very good year last year! Jackson Merril was just as good as Ian Happ *this* year. How many players have had statistically good outlier years and then never replicated them? 

    Even last year, that would require Jackson Merril to be a 9 win player. He was a 5.3 win player. Happ is consistently 3-high 3 wins. He's not even "two times" the player. At his best, he's been about 1.5 wins or so better. But we don't have any data to suggest that's going to be the norm. In 2025, they've been nearly identical. 

    Here's another data point:

    xwOBA - Happ: .363 and Merril - .360

    We don't need to be hyperbolic. 

    • Like 1
    Eeyore

    Eeyore 199

    Posted

    I would have put money on getting, at least, one "daggum" out of this guy. 😞

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    Keller, Thielbar, Kittredge.  Which 2 do you ideally go with to close it out?

    CubinNY

    CubinNY 2,051

    Posted

    The shadow is the Cubs best player right now. 

    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 847

    Posted

    Miller is filthy,  My goodness.

    • Like 1
    We Got The Whole 9

    We Got The Whole 9 1,144

    Posted

    Pete is really lucky his error didnt cost us. What a brutal game.

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

    Keller, Thielbar, Kittredge.  Which 2 do you ideally go with to close it out?

    Kittredge and Keller, but Keller scares me a bit.

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    PCA's article had me pumped up today.  Hope he practices what he preaches about not letting things get to him when they aren't going well.

    • Like 1
    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

    Miller is filthy,  My goodness.

    They should turn down the difficuluty on Mason Miller from HoF to like, veteran, just to be fair.

    • Haha 1
    DrCub

    DrCub 71

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

    Miller is filthy,  My goodness.

    I’m wondering how in the world does he have a 2.63 ERA?  Who in the hell is hitting this guy? 

    Ding Dong Johnson

    Ding Dong Johnson 1,520

    Posted

    1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

    Pete is really lucky his error didnt cost us. What a brutal game.

    I still say that error was more on Nico than Pete. But he's definitely been a turd at the plate.

    chibears55

    chibears55 799

    Posted

    Gotta get through this inning and top of of their order

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    Getting the leadoff guy is huge here as the 9 hitter with the top of their order due up.

    Eeyore

    Eeyore 199

    Posted

    I'm guessing that MLB is putting ads on helmets?



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