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  • Ian Happ is Playing Defense Like the Ball is Alive and Hates Him

    Matt Trueblood

    By Matt Trueblood

    The numbers aren't unanimous, but by and large, they say that the Cubs' reigning Gold Glove left fielder is still above-average out there. Reading that, didn't you feel just a little bit of third-party impostor syndrome?

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

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    Remarkably, I do think the numbers (Defensive Runs Saved, from Sports Info Solutions, says Ian Happ is 3 runs better than an average left fielder; Defensive Runs Prevented, from Baseball Prospectus, has him 6.5 runs to the good) are telling us the truth. Somehow, someway, Ian Happ is getting more outs than he's costing the Cubs. His arm has been in fine form this year. Despite not throwing unusually hard, he's been efficient, because he's gotten rid of the ball exceptionally quickly on a few plays and has been deadly accurate. 

    He's not letting everything fall in, either. Happ has been an average left fielder this year, with a bit of added value because teams keep testing his arm. That's a fact. This next bit is not quite a fact, but I defy anyone to tell me they honestly feel differently: Watching Happ in left field this year has been painful.

    If you're a Harry Potter fan, Happ's reaction to fly balls (and even a fair number of grounders and line drives that reach him on a hop or two) probably looks familiar. 

    If not, consult the above, but you can still get the rough idea without watching. Happ isn't slower this year, and he isn't battling some highly technical mechanical flaw in his jumps or anything. The man is in a wrestling match with the baseball almost every time, even while it's still in the air. His legs don't look right. He lurches at the last second. About twice a week, I briefly think he's about to pull a Gregory Polanco. About once a week, he actually does.

    PolancoTrip051515.gif

    Happ has had to slide for balls he shouldn't have had to slide for, including when cutting off hits in the gap. On the Cubs' final home stand of the year this past week, he developed an extremely weird habit of not only deferring to the center fielder on balls hit to left-center field, but turning away from the ball entirely, as if suddenly very interested in the ivy or the goings-on in the Cubs bullpen. He and Pete Crow-Armstrong nearly collided on a ball toward the gap in the ninth inning Sunday, and while it was perfectly catchable for either party and there was ultimately no trouble, it looked wrong. 

    None of this is a criticism of Happ. On the contrary, he's done incredibly well to remain at least average at his position, given the severe, mysterious affliction with which he's battling. At the end of a long season in which he's played all but three games and has already come to the plate 668 times, it's possible he's just dead tired. It's possible that the visual training he's so famous for doing to make himself a better hitter has created some unforeseen issue with the different ballistic tracking required to chase fly balls. It's possible Happ is playing through an injury of some kind. Whatever the case, that he's out there every day and hasn't cost the Cubs more dearly in left field is to be lauded, not derided.

    Still, the team should consider some alternatives. As hard as Happ is playing, he has hurt the team in multiple recent losses with bad defensive play. If they trust Christopher Morel in left field at all, letting him patrol that area might make sense, with Happ switching to the DH spot Morel often occupies in the lineup. Happ has been terrific at the plate this year, in ways that are being too much overlooked.

    In 27 more plate appearances than he had last year, Happ has the same number of strikeouts (149), 40 more walks (98 vs. 58), and only four fewer extra-base hits, with two more home runs. He's posted an .864 OPS over the last four weeks, with the team's playoff hopes in the balance every day. He deserves to be in the lineup every day. He just might need a little time off from left field. It's either that, or they're going to have to give him a second glove to wrestle more of these midair bad hops into submission.

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    Irrelevant Dude
    54 minutes ago, Matt Trueblood said:

    If they trust Christopher Morel in left field at all, letting him patrol that area might make sense, with Happ switching to the DH spot Morel often occupies in the lineup.

     

    They don't, and he would not be an improvement defensively over Happ.  Maybe if the Cubs have Morel focus on a single position going forward (similar to what they did with Happ in LF), he could develop into a passable fielder, but they haven't shown a willingness to allow him to stick with a single position.  Not only that, he has struggled on offense for much of the second half, so he is no longer forcing his way into the lineup.  All that to say, I don't see a world in which Morel in LF is a better option than Happ.  Definitely not now, and probably not in the future either.

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    CubinNY

    There is a lot of measurement error in defensive metrics. Perhaps there will always be a large error. He makes good throws and knows how to cut the angles in Wrigley to get to the ball on a bounce. he's not a particularly good route runner or fast. I put him in a bin of LF that are passable to average. There is a  tremendously small standard deviation in that group (most are clustered around average). You have to be a noticeable outlier one way or the other. 

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    CubUgly
    1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    They don't, and he would not be an improvement defensively over Happ.  Maybe if the Cubs have Morel focus on a single position going forward (similar to what they did with Happ in LF), he could develop into a passable fielder, but they haven't shown a willingness to allow him to stick with a single position.  Not only that, he has struggled on offense for much of the second half, so he is no longer forcing his way into the lineup.  All that to say, I don't see a world in which Morel in LF is a better option than Happ.  Definitely not now, and probably not in the future either.

    Yeah, after witnessing in person Morel cost us a game in left in Houston this year that's a hard no.  I agree part of Morel's defensive issues are never playing in one spot for any significant period of time, that won't be fixed at this stage of a season. 

    Bottom line most teams put their worst fielder either in left or at first base.  It's why Dave Kingman, Soriano and Schwarbs played left.   It's the reason that Yelich - as bad of a fielder as he is - was the finalist for GG in left with Happ last year.   Having the DH allows some leeway now, but still there's always gonna be someone out there who is not great defensively anywhere but you have to get his bat in the lineup  and the DH is already taken.

    Happ improved significantly defensively last year, as he was flat out not good the year before.  He's fallen somewhere in between this year.   Whatever then numbers say he's botched some plays that really have not been that difficult, plays he made much more often last year. 

     

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    Rcal10

    On the idea of Morel playing one position, at seasons end I would tell Morel he is a 3rd baseman. Get someone to work with him as soon as the season ends and have him strictly play 3rd. If he can he die it I would be fine with a .230 hitter who slugs around .500 at 3rd. He would give the team a legitimate 30+ homer guy. He has the arm for 3rd. He should be able to handle it if it is his only focus. 

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    squally1313

    There's probably whole discussion to have about Morel in the offseason (is there a more beloved 0.9 fWAR in 412 PAs player in baseball? do people realize that 'Morel but also mediocre at third' is basically just Wisdom? they have essentially an identical slash line in their careers), but since this is still kinda an Ian Happ thread....

    Happ is fine in left. People who watch a specific team for an entire season (and only that team) are going to be able to point to certain plays that confirm what they want to believe one way or the other. He's played the third most LF innings in baseball and he is 5th out of 11 in FG defensive ratings. It's more than enough for a comfortably above average hitter. He's third in fWAR for LFers, which I'm aware is painting him in a good light because he's out there all day, every day, but if you just look at team production in left the Cubs (ie: Ian Happ) are 8th in total fWAR. No issues from me. 

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    We Got The Whole 9
    7 hours ago, squally1313 said:

    There's probably whole discussion to have about Morel in the offseason (is there a more beloved 0.9 fWAR in 412 PAs player in baseball? do people realize that 'Morel but also mediocre at third' is basically just Wisdom? they have essentially an identical slash line in their careers), but since this is still kinda an Ian Happ thread....

    Happ is fine in left. People who watch a specific team for an entire season (and only that team) are going to be able to point to certain plays that confirm what they want to believe one way or the other. He's played the third most LF innings in baseball and he is 5th out of 11 in FG defensive ratings. It's more than enough for a comfortably above average hitter. He's third in fWAR for LFers, which I'm aware is painting him in a good light because he's out there all day, every day, but if you just look at team production in left the Cubs (ie: Ian Happ) are 8th in total fWAR. No issues from me. 

    I agree with this completely. Morel basically is a more athletic Patrick Wisdom. The offense can tantalize at times but it's not consistent and comes with gaping chasms of nothingness and he doesn't bring value anywhere else. He's probably likely a 2 win player in his best form but he's a homegrown guy so we tend to give him more grace.

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    CubinNY
    10 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

    I agree with this completely. Morel basically is a more athletic Patrick Wisdom. The offense can tantalize at times but it's not consistent and comes with gaping chasms of nothingness and he doesn't bring value anywhere else. He's probably likely a 2 win player in his best form but he's a homegrown guy so we tend to give him more grace.

    He's also 23, so plenty of time to get better. 

    Edited by CubinNY
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