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    HOLY HORSEFEATHERS: Cubs Hire Craig Counsell as New Manager


    Matthew Trueblood

    In a shocking move, the Cubs have swooped in to steal the best manager in baseball from their fiercest division rival. Let's talk Craig Counsell.

    Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

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    Jed Hoyer has, somehow, outdone and upstaged his longtime partner and mentor, Theo Epstein. When Craig Counsell became a managerial free agent last week, Hoyer quietly went to work, and he has now pulled off a managerial coup as big (in a vacuum) as the Cubs landing Joe Maddon nine years ago. Instead of plucking him from the Rays (by way of an RV park in Florida), though, Hoyer took Counsell from the Milwaukee Brewers. 

    This is an enormous move, because the gulf in managerial nous between Counsell and David Ross is as wide as that between Maddon and Rick Renteria was. Year after year, the Brewers have overperformed their run differentials and their raw talent levels under Counsell. He's guided them to impressively strong finishes, and he manages the in-game decisions better than any other active skipper. Even without making material improvements to the roster itself (which are and should still be expected), this change makes the Cubs significantly better. They're now the favorites to win the NL Central in 2024, and with the right moves, they should be taken seriously as World Series contenders.

    Admittedly, as was the case with Renteria, this is a somewhat cruel denouement for Ross. As we've discussed several times on this site in the last eight months, though, Ross just wasn't ever going to be the guy who got this team back over the hump. He's a great baseball person and an asset to a big-league organization, but not a good manager. Counsell is, arguably, the very best manager in baseball. This changes everything.

    Ken Rosenthal reports that Counsell will make more than $40 million on a five-year guaranteed contract. That's an unprecedented combination of lucrative and lengthy, but it's exactly what we should have expected, based on the fact that the Cubs are actively displacing a low-grade franchise icon in order to land him and that he had the opportunity to sell his services to the highest bidders.

    A move this grand can't help but have a massive effect on the plan for the rest of this offseason. The Cubs were already expected to spend fairly significant money and push past at least one tier of the competitive-balance tax thresholds. While Counsell's success all came in a market so small as to head off most major free-agent outlays, you have to think some high-profile stars will have interest in coming to play under a skipper with this much star power. It just got easier and more urgent that the team spend major resources to get better in the short and medium term, and it's unlikely that the team would have made this change if they didn't think it facilitates that kind of ambitious movement.

    The Cubs didn't just beat the market, here. They're creating a wholly new one, as Counsell told confidants he wanted to do all along. We live in an era of persistently diminishing influence and prestige for managers, and that's been reflected in the fact that their pay hasn't increased as much as those of either players or front office personnel over the last 20 years. This goes some way toward changing that.

    What moves does this make you hope to see? How many wins better did the Cubs just get, instantly? Can't wait to talk about it more. 

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    Bertz

    Posted

    I'm probably the most vocal cheerleader for Hottovy around.  But the Brewers are one of the few teams arguably doing better in the pitching coach department.  Hottovy moving upstairs and Counsell bringing someone south with him from Milwaukee would be a real way to fight brain-drain from losing Breslow and potentially others.  

    • Like 1
    gocubs218

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

    He was known for doing more with a lesser payroll in Milwaukee so that's a really plausible reality. 

    No it’s not lol. He’s not coming here over the Mets to manage another Brewers situation again. 

    CubinNY

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

    I'm probably the most vocal cheerleader for Hottovy around.  But the Brewers are one of the few teams arguably doing better in the pitching coach department.  Hottovy moving upstairs and Counsell bringing someone south with him from Milwaukee would be a real way to fight brain-drain from losing Breslow and potentially others.  

    Maybe Ross is getting moved up too. He's under contract for 2024 with an option for 2025. 

    Jason Ross

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    Maybe Ross is getting moved up too. He's under contract for 2024 with an option for 2025. 

    Official statement from the Cubs was that he was "relieved of his managerial duties". He was let go.

    Ding Dong Johnson

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    Maybe Ross is getting moved up too. He's under contract for 2024 with an option for 2025. 

    Nope

     

    Rex Buckingham

    Posted

    Anyone else think the newest member is a Brewer fan?

    • Haha 1
    Bobson Dugnutt

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

    Anyone else think the newest member is a Brewer fan?

    Hahahaha

    Irrelevant Dude

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

    Anyone else think the newest member is a Brewer fan?

    That depends whether you think David Ross is a Brewers fan now.

    Derwood

    Posted

    I'm more excited about Ross going away than Counsell coming in. I'm not sure where/how the narrative started about Counsell being the next big thing, but outside of decent success with a small market team (which is more about the front office doing well with a lower payroll than anything else), what am I missing? What does Counsell do better than "name your average major league manager here"?

    Jason Ross

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Derwood said:

    I'm more excited about Ross going away than Counsell coming in. I'm not sure where/how the narrative started about Counsell being the next big thing, but outside of decent success with a small market team (which is more about the front office doing well with a lower payroll than anything else), what am I missing? What does Counsell do better than "name your average major league manager here"?

    From the outside looking in, first, Craig Counsell has, perhaps, the best staff in baseball. The Brewers have, routinely, under Counsell, turned bad fielding catchers into elite framing monsters (Grandal, Narvaez and Contreras all improved significantly). They've done a really good job in developing and getting the best out of arms at every level, and part of that is likely due to his staff at the MLB level. He's been willing to put trust into young players, both arms and hitters. And his in game moves seem pretty solid (though I think there's a degree of not making anyone happy here, too, in that managers usually take the blame when things go bad, but players get the credit on the inverse). 

    I expect a few of that staff is coming over. I expect his in-game stuff with be pretty good. The Cub shave a handful of young players coming up, so a manager who's had a lot of work with younger players over the last few years is also probably something the Cubs liked. I think combined, that's a pretty good thing over most others. We'll see who comes over, who gets what spots and how things sus out from here. But I'd guess that's a good chunk of it.

    Bertz

    Posted

    So what do we think Counsell replacing Ross means for the roster itself?  Especially since we don't watch day-to-day it can be hard to separate what the FO is pushing for vs. what the manager is pushing for, but it's still interesting to think about.  Some initial guesses:

    - The team is less likely to carry 3 catchers.  It's a bit tough to say how much of this was a specific response to having Willson Contreras as our main guy, but having 3 catchers feels like it was a David Ross request

    - In the bullpen, less of a focus on funk/being able to keep the ball on the ground and more of a focus on pure stuff and being able to beat hitters in the strike zone.  So e.g. expect Luke Little to get more shots at MLB innings than Brandon Hughes

    - Not that Ross didn't care about it, but for Counsell the platoon advantage is key.  I remember multiple Alzolay and Wesneski blowup starts because Counsell stuffed like 7 lefties into the lineup

    - Catcher framing über alles.  That said, he and his staff were able to take terrible framers and not just make them solid but make them absolutely fantastic.  Very quickly too

    - Related to the catcher framing thing, do generally expect a continued emphasis on defense pretty much all over the diamond.  So if you're team "play Christopher Morel at 3B" maybe brace for some disappointment 

    - This is the one I feel least comfortable ascribing specifically to Counsell, but his Brewer teams generally had a lot of dongs and a lot of strikeouts.  I'm sure they didn't want the strikeouts, but priority 1 was dongs.   And with the Brewers' limited resources the strikeouts were the cost

    Anything else we can think of?

    SOFNR

    Posted

    That's pretty exciting. He's definitely an upgrade and I hope this signifies the Ricketts would like to start winning again. I think the impact of this ultimately still depends on how they approach FA. But I'm now more optimistic about FA then I've been in a long time.  

    Jason Ross

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bertz said:

    So what do we think Counsell replacing Ross means for the roster itself?  Especially since we don't watch day-to-day it can be hard to separate what the FO is pushing for vs. what the manager is pushing for, but it's still interesting to think about.  Some initial guesses:

    - The team is less likely to carry 3 catchers.  It's a bit tough to say how much of this was a specific response to having Willson Contreras as our main guy, but having 3 catchers feels like it was a David Ross request

    - In the bullpen, less of a focus on funk/being able to keep the ball on the ground and more of a focus on pure stuff and being able to beat hitters in the strike zone.  So e.g. expect Luke Little to get more shots at MLB innings than Brandon Hughes

    - Not that Ross didn't care about it, but for Counsell the platoon advantage is key.  I remember multiple Alzolay and Wesneski blowup starts because Counsell stuffed like 7 lefties into the lineup

    - Catcher framing über alles.  That said, he and his staff were able to take terrible framers and not just make them solid but make them absolutely fantastic.  Very quickly too

    - Related to the catcher framing thing, do generally expect a continued emphasis on defense pretty much all over the diamond.  So if you're team "play Christopher Morel at 3B" maybe brace for some disappointment 

    - This is the one I feel least comfortable ascribing specifically to Counsell, but his Brewer teams generally had a lot of dongs and a lot of strikeouts.  I'm sure they didn't want the strikeouts, but priority 1 was dongs.   And with the Brewers' limited resources the strikeouts were the cost

    Anything else we can think of?

    I think a bigger dedication to youth, and especially, Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Brewers ran out a handful of young players, and Counsell was entirely willing to throw them in the thick of things; both BP and in the batting lineup. Frelick was immediately inserted into the middle of the lineup, Bryce Turang put up a 60 wRC+ but got 450 PA's because he played strong defense at a premium position, etc...but he also played Jace Peterson a bunch at 3b due to his defense as you mentioned.

    I expect some of this was necessity and the Brewers choices were limited. I also expect Counsell is more of an advocate for younger players where as I'm not always certain Ross was (not that he refused to play guys, but it felt like his trust circle was hard to get into).

    I'd probably think PCA is more likely now to break camp. Lots of offseason will change that equation, but I think Counsell would be a bigger fan of PCA's defense and speed with his bat that has some holes than Ross would have been.

    We Got The Whole 9

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

    From the outside looking in, first, Craig Counsell has, perhaps, the best staff in baseball. The Brewers have, routinely, under Counsell, turned bad fielding catchers into elite framing monsters (Grandal, Narvaez and Contreras all improved significantly). They've done a really good job in developing and getting the best out of arms at every level, and part of that is likely due to his staff at the MLB level. He's been willing to put trust into young players, both arms and hitters. And his in game moves seem pretty solid (though I think there's a degree of not making anyone happy here, too, in that managers usually take the blame when things go bad, but players get the credit on the inverse). 

    I expect a few of that staff is coming over. I expect his in-game stuff with be pretty good. The Cub shave a handful of young players coming up, so a manager who's had a lot of work with younger players over the last few years is also probably something the Cubs liked. I think combined, that's a pretty good thing over most others. We'll see who comes over, who gets what spots and how things sus out from here. But I'd guess that's a good chunk of it.

    It worked pretty well last time we poached a good Manager from a small market team 

    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

    So what do we think Counsell replacing Ross means for the roster itself?  Especially since we don't watch day-to-day it can be hard to separate what the FO is pushing for vs. what the manager is pushing for, but it's still interesting to think about.  Some initial guesses:

    - The team is less likely to carry 3 catchers.  It's a bit tough to say how much of this was a specific response to having Willson Contreras as our main guy, but having 3 catchers feels like it was a David Ross request

    - In the bullpen, less of a focus on funk/being able to keep the ball on the ground and more of a focus on pure stuff and being able to beat hitters in the strike zone.  So e.g. expect Luke Little to get more shots at MLB innings than Brandon Hughes

    - Not that Ross didn't care about it, but for Counsell the platoon advantage is key.  I remember multiple Alzolay and Wesneski blowup starts because Counsell stuffed like 7 lefties into the lineup

    - Catcher framing über alles.  That said, he and his staff were able to take terrible framers and not just make them solid but make them absolutely fantastic.  Very quickly too

    - Related to the catcher framing thing, do generally expect a continued emphasis on defense pretty much all over the diamond.  So if you're team "play Christopher Morel at 3B" maybe brace for some disappointment 

    - This is the one I feel least comfortable ascribing specifically to Counsell, but his Brewer teams generally had a lot of dongs and a lot of strikeouts.  I'm sure they didn't want the strikeouts, but priority 1 was dongs.   And with the Brewers' limited resources the strikeouts were the cost

    Anything else we can think of?

     

    • Counsell has managed multiple elite relievers and done so in ways that don't always adhere to traditional closer roles, but my limited perspective is that it has always been very clear who was at the top of the food chain and in what order, and had several really good relievers to pick from.  I expect Alzolay if healthy to be part of that inner circle, but maybe it's a little more likely that there's a no-questions-asked really good RP added instead of someone who maybe has more minor warts.
    • Adding on to the platoons bit, there's a lot of RHH on the fringes of the roster, I wouldn't be surprised if this hastens the exit of one of Wisdom or Madrigal in favor of a LH IF(maybe it just means Mastrobuoni is first choice), and mayyybe it increases the odds of a RHH CF to hedge against Tauchman regression and PCA growing pains?
    • The Brewers stole an above average amount of bases last year, but had fewer steals and attempts than the Cubs and those attempts were slightly more concentrated.  Maybe there's a little less interest in a player who only adds marginal SB value if he's gonna attempt 5-10 fewer steals per year.
    Billy62

    Posted

         I know every year there are surprises. But then there are sometimes surprises that leave you speechless. This is a front office masterstroke. As a fan, I feel like we won the lottery.

    stitchface

    Posted

    oh, but that batting stance . . . ugh.

     




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