Cubs-Brewers Game One Thread, By The Numbers

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Taillon would be on short rest like Matthew Boyd. Isn't that why everyone is so convinced Boyd shouldn't have gone Saturday? 

Javier Assad has a 15% K%. This would literally be the lowest of any qualified starter if he had enough innings. While his ERA does tend to outpace his xFIP, we cannot really expect a pitcher who had a 15% K% to do that well. He also displays little velocity. Against a team who struggles more with the fastball, I'm not sure that's an ace plan. He's just not a playoff starter. The Cubs didn't even deem him one of their 12 best pitchers.

Colin Rea has been solid lately. He's also been bad against Milwaukee on the year. He's a pitcher most people didn't want signed, I don't hate the idea of Rea pitching innings but there feels like a lot of recency bias here, He has extreme R/L splits - a 4.57 xFIP against LHH. The Brewers can throw out Yelich, Collins, Frelick, Turang....

I get that Shota hasn't been as dominant as he had been last year. But he's still probably the best option the Cubs have right now. He's on regular rest, the Cubs bullpen can be used, essentially, without impunity behind him; it's well rested and Shota can be pulled the moment they want to give him some rest. 

I once again don't think there is some clear-cut better option. You can make equally poor arguments for every option. For every HR Shota gives up, Assad doesn't strike someone out, Colini Rea is just Colin Rea and Jamo is on 3 days rest. 

Personally, I would have preferred Assad over any of the other choices for game 1 and I was shocked he was left off the roster.  In spite of his low K rate, I really think one of the reasons Assad is so effective is that he really throws the entire kitchen sink at hitters so they have no idea what pitch is coming in what count and don't have the option to sit on any particular pitch or any particular location.  So, facing a team that doesn't chase much and doesn't whiff much, why not lean into that?  We know they don't hit many homers and their quality of contact isn't elite, so take advantage of the Cubs elite defense and the fact that the Brewers are going to swing at strikes, many of which are likely to be pitcher's pitches and likely to induce less than solid contact.

I absolutely hated starting Boyd against Milwaukee (they beat him up earlier this year) on short rest (he's so far beyond the IP he's thrown in years)  when there were a lot of other options, albeit none of them ideal. 

18 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Personally, I would have preferred Assad over any of the other choices for game 1 and I was shocked he was left off the roster.  In spite of his low K rate, I really think one of the reasons Assad is so effective is that he really throws the entire kitchen sink at hitters so they have no idea what pitch is coming in what count and don't have the option to sit on any particular pitch or any particular location.  So, facing a team that doesn't chase much and doesn't whiff much, why not lean into that?  We know they don't hit many homers and their quality of contact isn't elite, so take advantage of the Cubs elite defense and the fact that the Brewers are going to swing at strikes, many of which are likely to be pitcher's pitches and likely to induce less than solid contact.

I absolutely hated starting Boyd against Milwaukee (they beat him up earlier this year) on short rest (he's so far beyond the IP he's thrown in years)  when there were a lot of other options, albeit none of them ideal. 

I think Javier Assad is not a very good pitcher. I can usually find a reason for a pitcher beating his xFIP, and I'm not very sure I can find one for Assad. His K% is dropping, the GB% isn't high enough to be one, his xERA routinely sits in the mid 4's. Most of his profile reads of a guy who is teetering on the edge of a pretty quick downfall as an MLB starter.

I don't think he's a very good pitcher. I don't think the Cubs believe in him; they thought, at best, he's the 13th best pitcher right now, and it's safe to assume had Horton been healthy, he'd be deemed the 14th best pitcher right now. 

When you look at all of that, it'd be fairly perplexing for the Cubs to start him in a playoff game against the #`1 seed in the NL. 

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Nice to have a voice of reason and hope. Even when I don’t totally agree with you and think you, at times, shade opinions to slant the Cubs way, it is nice to see it anyway. And I usually do agree with you. 👍

I try to find some hope in the doom and gloom. 

Most of the time. 

Appreciate the kind words!

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

The discussions on whom should start is all academic if the Cubs bats don't get going.  Pretty much anyone who starts for the Brewers today is going to be a step down, time to start horsefeathers hitting. 

100%.  Hitting goes a long way to take the heat off pitching.  FFS Cubs, HIT THE horsefeathers BALL!

1 hour ago, Banks-Williams said:

I like what you say. Just to be clear, I wasn’t saying Taillion should pitch today. I was saying all three of those should pitch before Shota.  He’s giving up too many runs now; lots of back-to-back hits. 

Assad is the best (in nearly the whole MLB in fact) at keeping runs from scoring with men on base. And if there is one thing the Brew is good at, it is “putting men on base”.  Counsel’s decision to take his most-rested starter off the roster is going to haunt him throughout this series.  He needs to spend less time dying his hair and giving interviews and more watching his players.  He played tired men too much post All Star break. 

No excuse on leaving him off roster. Plenty of other options to leave off like Sorotka over him.

31 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think Javier Assad is not a very good pitcher. I can usually find a reason for a pitcher beating his xFIP, and I'm not very sure I can find one for Assad. His K% is dropping, the GB% isn't high enough to be one, his xERA routinely sits in the mid 4's. Most of his profile reads of a guy who is teetering on the edge of a pretty quick downfall as an MLB starter.

I don't think he's a very good pitcher. I don't think the Cubs believe in him; they thought, at best, he's the 13th best pitcher right now, and it's safe to assume had Horton been healthy, he'd be deemed the 14th best pitcher right now. 

When you look at all of that, it'd be fairly perplexing for the Cubs to start him in a playoff game against the #`1 seed in the NL. 

Sorotka or however you spell it a better option than Assad? Really? 

33 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think Javier Assad is not a very good pitcher. I can usually find a reason for a pitcher beating his xFIP, and I'm not very sure I can find one for Assad. His K% is dropping, the GB% isn't high enough to be one, his xERA routinely sits in the mid 4's. Most of his profile reads of a guy who is teetering on the edge of a pretty quick downfall as an MLB starter.

I don't think he's a very good pitcher. I don't think the Cubs believe in him; they thought, at best, he's the 13th best pitcher right now, and it's safe to assume had Horton been healthy, he'd be deemed the 14th best pitcher right now. 

When you look at all of that, it'd be fairly perplexing for the Cubs to start him in a playoff game against the #`1 seed in the NL. 

Sure, that's all true, but for me he was the most highly polished turd in this particular scenario and sending Boyd out there on short rest when he's clearly diminished at this point in the season was a fool's errand that I hated from the moment it was announced.  Doesn't mean the outcome would have been different, but the process was terrible in my opinion.

1 hour ago, Banks-Williams said:

Assad is the best (in nearly the whole MLB in fact) at keeping runs from scoring with men on base.

Do you think this is an actual skill, and if so, what about it makes it unique in the fact that he can't replicate that same success in situations where there aren't guys on base?

2 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Sorotka or however you spell it a better option than Assad? Really? 

Based on metrics, recent history and MLB success, yes, and it's not particularly close.  He pitched poorly on Saturday unfortunately.

Just now, squally1313 said:

Do you think this is an actual skill, and if so, what about it makes it unique in the fact that he can't replicate that same success in situations where there aren't guys on base?

I agree with you in principle here, but until it stops happening, the success he's had at doing it is sustained enough that I'm not going to just poo poo it because we can't explain it with data right now.

1 minute ago, Caesar said:

Sorotka or however you spell it a better option than Assad? Really? 

Don't you think it's a little bit strange that you don't even know his name and you're complaining about him? I say that because it feels odd to throw a fit about Michael Soroka but if you can't get the name right, it means you're probably not so familiar with his body of work.

For example, when transitioned to the BP last year, Soroka posted killer K% and numbers. He was a stud reliever. In Washington, he was a great pitcher! His ERA was high, but the Washington Nationals finished dead last defensively - his ERA was inflated because the Nats couldn't field well. They're atrocious. 

Since coming to Chicago, it hasn't worked great. But I think that's more or less due to his injury and being thrown off. But yeah, I think Soroka is a better option. The Cubs do too.

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

I agree with you in principle here, but until it stops happening, the success he's had at doing it is sustained enough that I'm not going to just poo poo it because we can't explain it with data right now.

There are usually normal markers we have of players capable of doing these things. Left-on-base generally has no markers and is mostly considered a luck based concept. 

With anything, there are players who are able to skirt the danger zone more than others, and some who's luck lasts longer. I think as we project Assad in the future, we can either assume that the luck will run out sooner rather than later, or find some data in how he does the outlier thing he does. I can't find any real data for the latter, meaning the former feels like the safest option moving forward.

I don't think he's so bad he doesn't have a space in MLB - I think he's a capable #5 if needed and likely more of a swingman. A Colin Rea type career sounds...realistic! But playoff starter? No thanks.

8 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Based on metrics, recent history and MLB success, yes, and it's not particularly close.  He pitched poorly on Saturday unfortunately.

I’m not anti-metrics by any stretch, but one of these days the metrics have to swing the Cubs way. Or else Counsell has bad hunches. 

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I agree with you in principle here, but until it stops happening, the success he's had at doing it is sustained enough that I'm not going to just poo poo it because we can't explain it with data right now.

I don't think you specifically are doing this here, but I think there's this somewhat purposeful confusion between past accomplishments and results and what we should expect going forward. It's like, the reverse of the Dansby in RISP conversations from this year. Assad has gotten the job done in the broadest, arguably most important sense, which is 'prevent runs from scoring'. In the same way that a guy who hits .440 in this 140 PAs with RISP should get extra credit in his MVP discussions, and in the same way that Dansby being terrible in those situations absolutely hurt the team. But my general baseline when looking forward is to eliminate all context outside of the pitcher trying to get the batter out, and the batter trying to not make an out. And there are statistics that have good predictive value and there are ones that don't. Which column from the below strikes you as being the most broadly different based on the different contexts, and how much weight do we want to put on that going forward? As a hint, his fly ball rate is actually highest when there are runners in scoring position.

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Since coming to Chicago, it hasn't worked great. But I think that's more or less due to his injury and being thrown off. 

Kind of an understatement isn't it?  I mean, that was a great horse until he broke his leg.   Regardless of the reason, what he did "last year" is irrelevant with athletes who suffer serious  / semi-serious injuries.  

19 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Don't you think it's a little bit strange that you don't even know his name and you're complaining about him? I say that because it feels odd to throw a fit about Michael Soroka but if you can't get the name right, it means you're probably not so familiar with his body of work.

For example, when transitioned to the BP last year, Soroka posted killer K% and numbers. He was a stud reliever. In Washington, he was a great pitcher! His ERA was high, but the Washington Nationals finished dead last defensively - his ERA was inflated because the Nats couldn't field well. They're atrocious. 

Since coming to Chicago, it hasn't worked great. But I think that's more or less due to his injury and being thrown off. But yeah, I think Soroka is a better option. The Cubs do too.

No is complaining. I’m just saying Assad is the better option. Another keyboard monitor just worried about spell checking. Stop letting the little things bother you. So sensitive! Typical of today’s youth. All about feelings.

7 minutes ago, Connor McConnor said:

Kind of an understatement isn't it?  I mean, that was a great horse until he broke his leg.   Regardless of the reason, what he did "last year" is irrelevant with athletes who suffer serious  / semi-serious injuries.  

He had a shoulder strain this year. His velocity is already back. Let's not go crazy with what he had. 

This post makes it seem like he had TJS. I do think his routine and mechanics are a little off. I think he rushed back a little and didn't get as much rehab time in the minors as would have been ideal and we are seeing that rust shake off in real time.  I also think he is a good pitcher and long term is fine. Both things can be true.

9 minutes ago, Caesar said:

No is complaining. I’m just saying Assad is the better option. Another keyboard monitor just worried about spell checking. Stop letting the little things bother you. So sensitive! Typical of today’s youth. All about feelings.

I wasn't being sensitive, I was pointing out the irony in acting like you know about a pitcher but not even bothering to Google his name. It makes you look silly. I am not a spell check, we all make errors. Your post made it very clear you don't care to know his name, that's my issue. I mistype constantly. But I do know who everyone is.

Also, I am 38 years old, not "today's youth" my friend. Trust me, both my knees and the growing amount of gray on my hair and beard wishes I was.

But you do you. You seem more concerned with just being miserable consistently than looking up information about the people you're complaining about. No reason to continue this beyond of you have nothing else baseball related to speak on. 

Would you like to provide information in the form of statistics and data to suggest Assad is better? As stated, the Cubs don't appear to think so, so I would be interested in why you think that. I am of the opinion myself Soroka is a better option than Assad, especially out of the bullpen. 

10 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Typical of today’s youth. All about feelings.

Shota is fine today. Hopefully he can get through 4 or 5 allowing 0 or 1 run and we can turn to the pen with the off day tomorrow.

14 minutes ago, Caesar said:

No is complaining. I’m just saying Assad is the better option. Another keyboard monitor just worried about spell checking. Stop letting the little things bother you. So sensitive! Typical of today’s youth. All about feelings.

The guy who's saying Assad is a better pitcher than Soroka based on feelings calling out someone else for their feeling when they're actually using data as a base for their opinion is very rich irony.  You're such a dolt.

Edited October 6, 2025 by mul21

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

The discussions on whom should start is all academic if the Cubs bats don't get going.  Pretty much anyone who starts for the Brewers today is going to be a step down, time to start horsefeathers hitting. 

Yep. I would like for the Cubs to return the favor to the Brewers and up a crooked number early and make this game uncompetitive. 

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I wasn't being sensitive, I was pointing out the irony in acting like you know about a pitcher but not even bothering to Google his name. It makes you look silly. I am not a spell check, we all make errors. Your post made it very clear you don't care to know his name, that's my issue. I mistype constantly. But I do know who everyone is.

Also, I am 38 years old, not "today's youth" my friend. Trust me, both my knees and the growing amount of gray on my hair and beard wishes I was.

But you do you. You seem more concerned with just being miserable consistently than looking up information about the people you're complaining about. No reason to continue this beyond of you have nothing else baseball related to speak on. 

Would you like to provide information in the form of statistics and data to suggest Assad is better? As stated, the Cubs don't appear to think so, so I would be interested in why you think that. I am of the opinion myself Soroka is a better option than Assad, especially out of the bullpen. 

Then stop over reacting like a teenager. It’s just a message board, wow!

53 minutes ago, Connor McConnor said:

Kind of an understatement isn't it?  I mean, that was a great horse until he broke his leg.   Regardless of the reason, what he did "last year" is irrelevant with athletes who suffer serious  / semi-serious injuries.  

Soroka’s most recent form post injury is more indicative of how good a pitcher he is than his pre-injury stats. Those advocating for Soroka based on his pre-trade metrics are looking for what they want to find.

Edited October 6, 2025 by Wilson A2000

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

He's probably in line for around 12-15 outs. Ashby is going to take the first four through Tucker, and then it's Priester, probably through the 4th or 5th. 

I don't necessarily think they have to score 4. Shota is a good pitcher, and the Cubs BP is good. The Brewers didn't score a single run after the 2nd against Civale (who got 1 whiff in 55 pitches) and Ben Brown. They had a great first two innings but they're not a juggernaut. For all of the worry on the Cubs lineup over the second half of the year. the Cubs had a 113 wRC+ in September to the Brewers 101. I'm not so sure the Cubs have to outhit the Brewers this much. 

Don't get me wrong, four would be great! But I do think we're over valuing the Brewers offensive capabilities. Especially if Chourio is out.

Issue is that the Brewers aren't strictly a wRC+ offense, they rely on baserunning, pressuring the defense and forcing errors etc.  3rd most runs scored in the MLB and 9th in wRC+