Cubs-Brewers Game One Thread, By The Numbers

Just now, Jason Ross said:

I think it's a little column A and a little column B. They outpitched their peripherals, likely in part, to their excellent defense. In the playoffs, you really only need four starters (though teams have proven recently you can do with less, sometimes two or three). They also got more from Cade Horton than anyone expected, and had he not fractured a rib a week before the seasons end, I think the Cubs SP's numbers would be generally fine for now. 

They could have also overpaid and gotten one more guy, or had bought one more impact reliever. 

adding an SP is automatically an overpay? why?

I mean I want to support the Cubs in the playoffs but this is unwatchable.

That delivery looked like a balk to me.

Train wreck, spectacular.

i'll say that i have high hopes for next years team though. Imagine having both Horton and steele next season? Rotation should be amazing

Just now, SpongeWorthy said:

adding an SP is automatically an overpay? why?

...did you not see the prices this deadline? Shane Bieber who hadn't throw above High-A, coming off a TJS went for a borderline top-100 prospect. The SP asks were reportedly very high and the trades that did go down all went for more than SP's had been recently. 

We can call a spade a spade. That isn't me necessarily saying they shouldn't have overpaid. In fact, I wrote a whole article talking about it here, so I bring receipts.

11 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

JFC, I don’t know why I respond. The horsefeathers signs were there and to pretend otherwise is ignorant.

You are right DDJ...no question but from what we were all told the asking price was too high for a quality starter. That said, would another decent starter put us over the top against MIL/Philly/LA? Kinda doubt it so we are at where we're at. Jed's  gonna need to trade for someone in the offseason with Steele's return date up in the air: May, June? Who knows with his injury. Cade will be back so next April without an offseason trade we're looking at:

1)Cade 2)Boyd 3) Jamo 4) Shota 5) Assad....

That's a solid starting 5 and I suppose they could always re-sign Rea who pitched this season for 5 mil if memory serves correct

 

Edited October 4, 2025 by cubfansince77
left out a few facts

2 minutes ago, SpongeWorthy said:

adding an SP is automatically an overpay? why?

I assume based on the trade market, teams had to give up more value than they were getting back, which by definition would be an overpay.

Maybe Jed can stop looking in the bargain bin for starters and bullpen arms and actually put together a pitching crew that resembles a lot of the others teams arms in the postseason.

Making up the numbers in the postseason sucks. 

Who were the big TOR arms even available? 

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

...did you not see the prices this deadline? Shane Bieber who hadn't throw above High-A, coming off a TJS went for a borderline top-100 prospect. The SP asks were reportedly very high and the trades that did go down all went for more than SP's had been recently. 

We can call a spade a spade. That isn't me necessarily saying they shouldn't have overpaid. In fact, I wrote a whole article talking about it here, so I bring receipts.

Can’t Steele and Horton be the starting pitcher acquisitions though?  I guess it’s easy to forget we’ve fought through being without a key SP pitcher all year long.  Done a really good job without him.

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

Who were the big TOR arms even available? 

MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara were all available in some fashion. Two of the three of them have been very good since the ASB. 

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Behind a defense with the second best defense fWAR in baseball, playing half their games in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball behind one of the easiest second half SOSs. All of the advanced stats point to the pitching staff being mediocre.

Yup the Cubs SP had an average xFIP in the 2nd half.  The entire staff were 23rd in xFIP for the season.  Our pitching is at best average and helped a ton by defense and Wrigley wind.  However, I think some of this is by design as Jed seems to not put much money into the rotation and pen but towards the position side.

3 minutes ago, Soul said:

I mean I want to support the Cubs in the playoffs but this is unwatchable.

I was about to reply that there’s always tomorrow. Then I remembered MLB determined that an off day was needed even though the games are played in a dome, so they decided to play a game on Monday starting after 8 pm central with two teams that are in the central time zone. Then another off day Tuesday. Just to recalibrate I guess.

Just now, Soul said:

Can’t Steele and Horton be the starting pitcher acquisitions though?  I guess it’s easy to forget we’ve fought through being without a key SP pitcher all year long.  Done a really good job without him.

I mean, in 2026! Neither was the answer for 2025, as one was hurt and the other one was already in the lineup. Sure! But two things even for next year:

1. Steele is coming off an injury to his elbow, how long it takes for him not only to make his debut (it doesn't appear to be in April) but for him to get to speed
2. Injuries will occur between OD and the end of the year. This year the Cubs had to IL Shota, Steele, Horton, Taillon, and Assad. Expect most of the rotation to see the IL next year. They need more than those two.

Just now, JHBulls said:

Maybe Jed can stop looking in the bargain bin for starters and bullpen arms and actually put together a pitching crew that resembles a lot of the others teams arms in the postseason.

I don't always love Jed's approach, but it has actually worked for the bullpen.  Same thing with the rotation, I would certainly prefer the Cubs go out and get a TOR arm, but his "bargain bin" staff has performed well this season.  The unfortunate reality is, they are without 2 of their top 3 starters right now, and it shows.

 

2 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I assume based on the trade market, teams had to give up more value than they were getting back, which by definition would be an overpay.

no one can assess value 2-3 months after the deadline, it's almost entirely projection. 

and everything looks like an overpay when management is cheap as horsefeathers. if the cubs, organizationally, were trying harder to win the world series, less things would look like an overpay. it's all downstream of that.

I'm not even mad at the pitching and I certainly don't want to go spend big on a FA pitcher in 2026. Offense and pen, spend it all on that.

Just gotta come back and try to steal one.  Priester won’t be much easier.  His whole thing is getting people to pound the ball into the ground.

Edited October 4, 2025 by Soul
Because I’m stupid and didnt remember there’s an off day

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara were all available in some fashion. Two of the three of them have been very good since the ASB. 

And the cost of Gore was reportedly both Horton and Shaw. 

Counsell took his hat off, has messy hair and looks like he's lost his sanity at this point.

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

...did you not see the prices this deadline? Shane Bieber who hadn't throw above High-A, coming off a TJS went for a borderline top-100 prospect. The SP asks were reportedly very high and the trades that did go down all went for more than SP's had been recently. 

We can call a spade a spade. That isn't me necessarily saying they shouldn't have overpaid. In fact, I wrote a whole article talking about it here, so I bring receipts.

I feel like when you make a trade for Kyle Tucker to begin the season and apparently have no intention to extend him, I dont think you have an excuse to balk at the asking price for pitching at the deadline.

Just now, SpongeWorthy said:

no one can assess value 2-3 months after the deadline, it's almost entirely projection. 

and everything looks like an overpay when management is cheap as horsefeathers. if the cubs, organizationally, were trying harder to win the world series, less things would look like an overpay. it's all downstream of that.

You don't assess value after the deadline, you assess it on the deadline. Whatever happens afterwards is irrelevant for any baseball team who doesn't employ a full-time psychic on staff. There is no going back in time. You can only guess what will come next. 

It's all opportunity cost. The opportunity cost at the deadline was incredibly steep based on all reporting and the fact none of the big arms went. The prices for even the Merril Kelly's were pretty hefty. 

Just now, Pinerider said:

Counsell took his hat off, has messy hair and looks like he's lost his sanity at this point.

He's going to be smoking in the tunnel by the 5th inning.

3 minutes ago, Max Power said:

I was about to reply that there’s always tomorrow. Then I remembered MLB determined that an off day was needed even though the games are played in a dome, so they decided to play a game on Monday starting after 8 pm central with two teams that are in the central time zone. Then another off day Tuesday. Just to recalibrate I guess.

No worries, I just did LOL

Just now, Irrelevant Dude said:

He's going to be smoking in the tunnel by the 5th inning.

LOL.