Let's Not Let the Prospect of Bringing Back Cody Bellinger Lose Its Sizzle

With Bellinger, to me it all boils down to years and money. I didn't/don't feel that way about Ohtani or Yamamoto. I simply don't trust the one year of semi-bounceback we saw from Bellinger last season. And with PCA likely pounding on the door and potentially forcing Bellinger to move out of a premium position, I've basically talked myself into Matt Chapman while typing this post.

PCA cant hit, this team cannot go into the season relying on him if it truly wants to compete

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

With Bellinger, to me it all boils down to years and money. I didn't/don't feel that way about Ohtani or Yamamoto. I simply don't trust the one year of semi-bounceback we saw from Bellinger last season. And with PCA likely pounding on the door and potentially forcing Bellinger to move out of a premium position, I've basically talked myself into Matt Chapman while typing this post.

I feel similar to Chapman as I do Bellinger because both have odd profiles moving forward. Both have odd batted ball data respective to their wRC+. Both rely decently heavily on their glove (Chapman at 3b, Bellinger at CF) in terms of their contract value. And neither I'm entirely confident moving forward on the contracts that are being bandied about. Both play positions of immediate need, but by 2025 those needs may be filled internally with two of the Cubs (arguable) top-five prospects.  

There are contracts I'd be okay with both on, but I don't think either fill the Cubs most immediate need which is an impact type bat. Bellinger did that last year with weird data, and Chapman's batted ball data looks that way, but with a 110 wRC+ hitter over his last 1800, he simply hasn't been one. I'm kind of at the point where I'd prefer the Cubs to pass on both, go more of a one-year route with the bats, and re-asses before being locked into some hitters I don't fully trust for 5-6+ years.

54 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

With Bellinger, to me it all boils down to years and money. I didn't/don't feel that way about Ohtani or Yamamoto. I simply don't trust the one year of semi-bounceback we saw from Bellinger last season. And with PCA likely pounding on the door and potentially forcing Bellinger to move out of a premium position, I've basically talked myself into Matt Chapman while typing this post.

Wow I couldn't disagree with this more.  We don't know what we have at the plate with PCA.  I'm not going to hold limited action last year against him but I will say he's an unknown and we can't base his minor league stats on a projection into the majors.

How was Bellinger's season a "semi" bounce back?  He hit for power, hit for average.  Put up an .881 OPS good for a 133 OPS+.  Silver slugger @ CF (I guess it was "utility") is nothing to turn your nose up at.  It was a fantastically successful return to form as far as I'm concerned.

To me, if we let Bellinger go it's an utter catastrophe.

49 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I feel similar to Chapman as I do Bellinger because both have odd profiles moving forward. Both have odd batted ball data respective to their wRC+. Both rely decently heavily on their glove (Chapman at 3b, Bellinger at CF) in terms of their contract value. And neither I'm entirely confident moving forward on the contracts that are being bandied about. Both play positions of immediate need, but by 2025 those needs may be filled internally with two of the Cubs (arguable) top-five prospects.  

There are contracts I'd be okay with both on, but I don't think either fill the Cubs most immediate need which is an impact type bat. Bellinger did that last year with weird data, and Chapman's batted ball data looks that way, but with a 110 wRC+ hitter over his last 1800, he simply hasn't been one. I'm kind of at the point where I'd prefer the Cubs to pass on both, go more of a one-year route with the bats, and re-asses before being locked into some hitters I don't fully trust for 5-6+ years.

Passing up on everything then?  I respect the opinions around here I really do.  But man, that just sounds like bargain basement FO stuff suited for the A's and KC, but not this club.

2 minutes ago, Soul said:

Wow I couldn't disagree with this more.  We don't know what we have at the plate with PCA.  I'm not going to hold limited action last year against him but I will say he's an unknown and we can't base his minor league stats on a projection into the majors.

How was Bellinger's season a "semi" bounce back?  He hit for power, hit for average.  Put up an .881 OPS good for a 133 OPS+.  Silver slugger @ CF (I guess it was "utility") is nothing to turn your nose up at.  It was a fantastically successful return to form as far as I'm concerned.

To me, if we let Bellinger go it's an utter catastrophe.

Bellinger's batted ball data is troublesome. He grips and rips enough pulled balls to have some value but his 2023 exit velocity and BABIP are concerning.

Will he return to being bad? No, I doubt that. But I think we could see some regression in 2024.

Throw out your Bellinger jerseys and ask for a Hoskins jersey for Xmas.

Maybe I'll get one of those customized jerseys with "WTF" on the back.

I would do 6/150 but not a year or penny more. Guessing he finds more with other teams.

27 minutes ago, Soul said:

Passing up on everything then?  I respect the opinions around here I really do.  But man, that just sounds like bargain basement FO stuff suited for the A's and KC, but not this club.

It's not that I want to bargain basement this, it's that we have to ask ourselves "just how much do we believe what Bellinger did in 2023 is repeatable going forward"? He had a ,400 BABIP on 2 strike pitches last year. League BABIP in every count was .297 last year. If Bellinger had a .400 BABIP in general we'd be sounding the alarm bells, but a .400 BABIP with 2 strikes is even scarier. Part of this likely explains why his hard hit% was in the 10th%, his barrel% was 27%, and his exit velocity was in the 22%. There was likely a conscious effort to just...put the ball in play any way and this likely resulted in helping his K% be where it was, while also, likely resulting in a lot of luck based hits. But those numbers are more than just a two strike approach too. Those aren't great indicators of future success. So there's some real concern there, and there should be. 

Can Cody Bellinger continue to BABIP his way to two strike success? Can he hit for power while not hitting the ball very hard? These are all very real questions a team has to ask. If he's going to be a long term CF, these matter less; CF'ers had a 98 wRC+ last year. But if he's not going to be a CF then the line for league average jumps considerably to 108 wRC+ for a 1b and 110 wRC+ for a DH, At that point, those questions really matter, because his position is important. He's a good CF if he's going to wRC+ 114 next year. He's only a slightly above league average 1b then, and that's just not worth 5-7 years. 

I don't want the Cubs to play cheap-o small market horsefeathers. I also don't want the Chicago Cubs to lock in a slightly above average 1b because that's just what's available. What this comes down to, for me, is that batted ball data. You have to be very sure this is going to be a 125 wRC+ bat moving forward for the next 4+ years because the likelihood is that even if PCA doesn't work out, he's going to force Bellinger over to 1b for minimum of a year or two, and likely, his best defensive years left for a soon to be 29 year old. Personally...I'm not that sure. I don't have the data that the Cubs do, so they get final deferral here. But I'm pretty skeptical of those things.

All of this might change though. If you can get him on a cool-Carlos-Correa-type 3 year, high AAV, multi-opt out thing, you have to be less worried about those things. Grab him for a year, or two, or three and you don't have to worry so much about everything working out perfectly. The Cubs are a big market team and they can do that. But I also don't really want the Cubs to wait out his market hoping that kind of a deal falls into their lap in mid-late-January either. It's a balancing act, and why, I come down on the end of "I'm just not sure I'm that gaga over the idea of Bellinger".

I think with Bellinger people have gotten too far in the weeds and worried about very specific slices of production that do not definitively tell us much about what to expect going forward.  He's an extremely talented hitter who has already shown a demonstrated ability to put up high end offensive production and is still just 28.  Take this most recent talking point, Bellinger had a .386 BABIP with 2 strikes last year, if that were to drop to .325(which feels appropriate given his approach and talent, for comparison Mookie was at .340 last year) he'd lose 11 hits.  Call that 9 singles and 2 doubles since the the luckier/weaker contact is going to skew 1B-heavy, and this regression has dropped his wRC+ to roughly...123 by my best napkin math and comparison?  And again this specific composition of batted balls is not certain, there's nothing that says we should expect him to be at his xwOBA next year or that he will be right at what we expect his BABIP to be in certain slices.  He's a talented enough hitter with enough history that if his 2 strike approach is less fruitful he can likely make adjustments to mitigate the impact.

All that said, I would not expect him to be a 135 wRC+ guy going forward, nor do I think that level is unattainable in a season or 2 over his next deal. But with his defense, speed, and positional flexibility I do not need him to be at that level to be interested in giving him a very healthy contract.

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think with Bellinger people have gotten too far in the weeds and worried about very specific slices of production that do not definitively tell us much about what to expect going forward.  He's an extremely talented hitter who has already shown a demonstrated ability to put up high end offensive production and is still just 28.  Take this most recent talking point, Bellinger had a .386 BABIP with 2 strikes last year, if that were to drop to .325(which feels appropriate given his approach and talent, for comparison Mookie was at .340 last year) he'd lose 11 hits.  Call that 9 singles and 2 doubles since the the luckier/weaker contact is going to skew 1B-heavy, and this regression has dropped his wRC+ to roughly...123 by my best napkin math and comparison?  And again this specific composition of batted balls is not certain, there's nothing that says we should expect him to be at his xwOBA next year or that he will be right at what we expect his BABIP to be in certain slices.  He's a talented enough hitter with enough history that if his 2 strike approach is less fruitful he can likely make adjustments to mitigate the impact.

 

All that said, I would not expect him to be a 135 wRC+ guy going forward, nor do I think that level is unattainable in a season or 2 over his next deal. But with his defense, speed, and positional flexibility I do not need him to be at that level to be interested in giving him a very healthy contract.

 

 

Mostly fair points, but I think it's a little bit glossed over to use phrases like 'a demonstrated ability to put up high end offensive production' and 'talented enough hitter with enough history'. The dude was legitimately broken offensively for 2 years/900 PAs until he came to Chicago, and the year before that would have made him an offensively average first baseman. Positional flexibility is nice, but if we're going to go this route I would much prefer to see his defense in center 130 games a year (while also turning PCAs potential and coveted team control into immediate 2024 production).

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Mostly fair points, but I think it's a little bit glossed over to use phrases like 'a demonstrated ability to put up high end offensive production' and 'talented enough hitter with enough history'. The dude was legitimately broken offensively for 2 years/900 PAs until he came to Chicago, and the year before that would have made him an offensively average first baseman. Positional flexibility is nice, but if we're going to go this route I would much prefer to see his defense in center 130 games a year (while also turning PCAs potential and coveted team control into immediate 2024 production).

Those 2 years were also correlated with injury problems that certainly appear to have resolved, but my point there is not that Cody Bellinger has always been this guy. It's that this isn't Cody Bellinger reaching heretofore unreached heights of offensive production and we have low confidence he can be successful outside this specific way he did it this year.  He's a top prospect with an MVP on his resume that has been this caliber of hitter in multiple ways before even reaching the Cubs(look at the K rate from his ROY season compared to his MVP season).  We can lean on his top of scale talent as comfort that he doesn't have to succeed in this narrow way to be similarly productive, because he's done it in multiple ways before and demonstrated an ability to make adjustments.

22 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think with Bellinger people have gotten too far in the weeds and worried about very specific slices of production that do not definitively tell us much about what to expect going forward.  He's an extremely talented hitter who has already shown a demonstrated ability to put up high end offensive production and is still just 28.  Take this most recent talking point, Bellinger had a .386 BABIP with 2 strikes last year, if that were to drop to .325(which feels appropriate given his approach and talent, for comparison Mookie was at .340 last year) he'd lose 11 hits.  Call that 9 singles and 2 doubles since the the luckier/weaker contact is going to skew 1B-heavy, and this regression has dropped his wRC+ to roughly...123 by my best napkin math and comparison?  And again this specific composition of batted balls is not certain, there's nothing that says we should expect him to be at his xwOBA next year or that he will be right at what we expect his BABIP to be in certain slices.  He's a talented enough hitter with enough history that if his 2 strike approach is less fruitful he can likely make adjustments to mitigate the impact.

 

All that said, I would not expect him to be a 135 wRC+ guy going forward, but with his defense, speed, and positional flexibility I do not need him to be at that level to be interested in giving him a very healthy contract.

 

 

I don't think it's fair to point to any single slice and say "that's why", but I don't think we can simply ignore massive hard%, barrel% and EV issues, either. That runs deeper than just the 2 strike BABIP, but I add that into my critique, like every other slice, because each slice adds up. We're talking the 213th best exit velocity in baseball, the 221st best max ev, the 143rd best barrel%... These are all better than they had been recently, but aren't good indicators moving forward, either. We're already trending down to a 123 wRC+ with just  BABIP on 2 strike question. But the 2 strike approach can't be the only reason his hard hit% is in the tanker, too. Most hitters who put up the barrel%, the hard% and the EV he put up last year run south of 120 wRC+ so I think it's fair to worry that Bellinger, moving forward, is closer to that of a 115 wRC+ hitter than that of a 125 wRC+ hitter. I appreciate he has versatility, but that versatility really only interests me if we're going to use it. If the goal is to slide him to 1b and let him moonlight in CF on off days once PCA comes up, then I'm not overly excited about paying for that, for say, 6-7 years if we're not confident on the bat playing up past 115 wRC+ at first base. It would offer nice coverage in the even Pete Crow-Armstrong is a failure, but that's when you have to have some reliance on your internal scouting and projections. If the Cubs believe in PCA, then paying for a long term "oh horsefeathers" solution has much less value. 

None of this is to say I think Bellinger is a bad player. I know FG ran an interesting article on the concept of Parades and Bellinger and their data recently, too. And I understand he's been successful in the past, but I am not sure the past (circa pre-2020) Cody Bellinger has much to do with Cody Bellinger in the future, either. What we have is the most recent version of Bellinger being the most likely thing moving forward, IMO. Where I question Bellinger is on a $180m+, seven year deal. I'm all in on short term, high AAV (when I think his versatility really becomes interesting as that coverage) but then that comes into a host of other questions like "can the Cubs truly afford to wait out their offseason with those hopes?". 

The Cubs are going to be the true arbiter of how scary those numbers are and perhaps there's more to this than I can see. Maybe the vision is to trade PCA, in which case, as a CF'er, I'm far more willing to cut the bat some slack. Maybe the Cubs are more worried in PCA than I think they are. But as I said, I have my concerns that this is the right player for the Cubs to sink that kind of long term money in. None of this is to suggest your lesser-concern isn't valid, only that I'm not sure I share your confidence in the profile moving forward.

 So a part of your thinking is that PCA goes to CF, and that would make Bellinger a 1B'er where is bat is positionally not as impressive.

1 minute ago, Soul said:

 So a part of your thinking is that PCA goes to CF, and that would make Bellinger a 1B'er where is bat is positionally not as impressive.

Part of it? Yes. The reality of first base is that it's much more "bat reliant" than centerfield (per league data). Primary DH have the highest league wRC+, and first basemen have the second highest (by pretty large margins). In 2023, centerfield was the fourth lowest (behind C, 2b, and 3b). And as recently as 2021 was down all the way to the 93 wRC+ level (95 wRC+ the season before). While there seems an upward trend on CF again, it's likely going to be among the four lowest for the foreseeable future. 

It's certainly not the only reason, but if we're going to have some questions on his bat, than these questions of "how does the bat play?" and "where does he play?" are probably questions on the forefront of needing to be asked and answered for Bellinger. 

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think it's fair to point to any single slice and say "that's why", but I don't think we can simply ignore massive hard%, barrel% and EV issues, either. That runs deeper than just the 2 strike BABIP, but I add that into my critique, like every other slice, because each slice adds up. We're talking the 213th best exit velocity in baseball, the 221st best max ev, the 143rd best barrel%... These are all better than they had been recently, but aren't good indicators moving forward, either. We're already trending down to a 123 wRC+ with just  BABIP on 2 strike question. But the 2 strike approach can't be the only reason his hard hit% is in the tanker, too. Most hitters who put up the barrel%, the hard% and the EV he put up last year run south of 120 wRC+ so I think it's fair to worry that Bellinger, moving forward, is closer to that of a 115 wRC+ hitter than that of a 125 wRC+ hitter.

Most players put a lot fewer balls in play than Bellinger and do so at a lower launch angle too. Only 13 qualifiers had a sub-20% K rate(Bellinger 15.6) and > 16 degree launch angle(Bellinger 17.2).  That group outperformed their xwOBA collectively by an average of about 20 points, and it's littered with some of the most consistently excellent hitters in the game.  Betts, Lindor, Ramirez, Bregman, Arenado, Semien, plus a few other professional hitters most every team would want(Wade, Turner, Paredes) along with a few speedsters scraping their way in(Friedl, Albies, K Hernandez).  This illustrates what my central thinking is as it relates to Bellinger, is that when we get this deep into batted ball quality conversations, we twist ourselves into slices of data that may feel like outliers, but are instead just as much a testament to a super talented player's ability than they are signs that the player is in for a fall.

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Throw out your Bellinger jerseys and ask for a Hoskins jersey for Xmas.

I'll take one of each, thanks.  If Hoskins is your Bellinger replacement the Cubs are in trouble unless you think PCA is going to turn in a Fred Lynn like rookie season.  Chapman is trash.  The team needs offense - especially if Bellinger is gone and they are faced with the unknown that is PCA in CF.

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Throw out your Bellinger jerseys and ask for a Hoskins jersey for Xmas.

I still am trying to figure out how to pawn off my Ohtani jersey. 

Signing Bellinger to play center, signing Hoskins, trading PCA or another glut of outfield prospects for pitching: Fine, good enough offseason besides missing out on the big guys. Puts above average bats at 6 of the 9 positions, who cares about catcher, etc. 

Signing Bellinger and bestowing upon him the first base spot and cleanup hitter role for the next 5-8 years and calling this the big and only addition we needed: Terrible offseason, and we deserve the decent chance of a Bellinger regression. 

Bellinger is a great fit for the 2024 Cubs, and maybe the 2025 Cubs too.  Being able to jump between center and 1st is extremely valuable here in the short term where we have fun kids at both spots.  If PCA is going all Corbin Carroll on the league Bellinger can play 1st, conversely if he struggles while Caissie is hitting 119 MPH nukes at 1B Bellinger can cover center.

The problem is that while 2023 Cody Bellinger hit enough for you to happily play him anywhere, 2024 Cody Bellinger is probably going to have a bat that's fairly uninspired at 1B.  To be a quality starter at 1B you need to be 20+% above average at the plate.  Bellinger's bat going forward looks like it'll come in right there, probably a bit south of there.  For as long as he's needed to regularly cover CF that's fine, but I don't want to give him Dansby Swanson money for what should hopefully only be a couple months of coverage.  Even if you're bearish on PCA, CF isn't a situation like shortstop last year where if we don't grab a guy then we are resigning ourselves to it being a hole for a while.  We have internal CF's behind PCA and the market's not totally barren over the next 15 months either.

If Happ and Suzuki weren't locked down it'd be totally different.  Bellinger moving to a corner is a bit of a waste but not enough to lose sleep over.  But as it is, I just can't look at paying market price for Bellinger as a good idea unless PCA gets dealt.  And I can't really get behind that unless Jed goes really big game hunting.

5 hours ago, imb said:

PCA cant hit, this team cannot go into the season relying on him if it truly wants to compete

He is also a nincompoop.

4 minutes ago, Bull said:

He is also a nincompoop.

So are some of posters on this site. 

39 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Bellinger is a great fit for the 2024 Cubs, and maybe the 2025 Cubs too.  Being able to jump between center and 1st is extremely valuable here in the short term where we have fun kids at both spots.  If PCA is going all Corbin Carroll on the league Bellinger can play 1st, conversely if he struggles while Caissie is hitting 119 MPH nukes at 1B Bellinger can cover center.

The problem is that while 2023 Cody Bellinger hit enough for you to happily play him anywhere, 2024 Cody Bellinger is probably going to have a bat that's fairly uninspired at 1B.  To be a quality starter at 1B you need to be 20+% above average at the plate.  Bellinger's bat going forward looks like it'll come in right there, probably a bit south of there.  For as long as he's needed to regularly cover CF that's fine, but I don't want to give him Dansby Swanson money for what should hopefully only be a couple months of coverage.  Even if you're bearish on PCA, CF isn't a situation like shortstop last year where if we don't grab a guy then we are resigning ourselves to it being a hole for a while.  We have internal CF's behind PCA and the market's not totally barren over the next 15 months either.

If Happ and Suzuki weren't locked down it'd be totally different.  Bellinger moving to a corner is a bit of a waste but not enough to lose sleep over.  But as it is, I just can't look at paying market price for Bellinger as a good idea unless PCA gets dealt.  And I can't really get behind that unless Jed goes really big game hunting.

 

I feel if they sign Bellinger they need to trade PCA. Bellinger has to be the centerfielder. Even with some regression he is a solid bat and good glove. But he has to be in center, not first base. Plus, if they do sign him they also get something else filled on the team by a PCA trade. Either a young controlled starting pitcher or a spot in the line up filled. Maybe both. I see both sides of the Bellinger debate. What I don’t understand is those who say they want him but only for 6 years or a particular dollar amount. Or those who want to move him to first. To me, if he is someone you want it has to be for center. If you believe enough in him for 6 years and an average salary around $25M, is it really that big a deal to do 7 and a $27M salary? I don’t think you hedge with PCA. I think you trade him. If they don’t want Bellinger at 1st there is no reason for PCA on the team. Might as well fill another position if need by trading him. 
 Based on the above, as long as they also dealt PCA I would want to sign Bellinger. However if they are not going to trade PCA they might as well pass on  Cody and try doing something else to help the team. I don’t want him at 1st. Not while paying him to play center. 

56 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Bellinger is a great fit for the 2024 Cubs, and maybe the 2025 Cubs too.  Being able to jump between center and 1st is extremely valuable here in the short term where we have fun kids at both spots.  If PCA is going all Corbin Carroll on the league Bellinger can play 1st, conversely if he struggles while Caissie is hitting 119 MPH nukes at 1B Bellinger can cover center.

The problem is that while 2023 Cody Bellinger hit enough for you to happily play him anywhere, 2024 Cody Bellinger is probably going to have a bat that's fairly uninspired at 1B.  To be a quality starter at 1B you need to be 20+% above average at the plate.  Bellinger's bat going forward looks like it'll come in right there, probably a bit south of there.  For as long as he's needed to regularly cover CF that's fine, but I don't want to give him Dansby Swanson money for what should hopefully only be a couple months of coverage.  Even if you're bearish on PCA, CF isn't a situation like shortstop last year where if we don't grab a guy then we are resigning ourselves to it being a hole for a while.  We have internal CF's behind PCA and the market's not totally barren over the next 15 months either.

If Happ and Suzuki weren't locked down it'd be totally different.  Bellinger moving to a corner is a bit of a waste but not enough to lose sleep over.  But as it is, I just can't look at paying market price for Bellinger as a good idea unless PCA gets dealt.  And I can't really get behind that unless Jed goes really big game hunting.

 

I don't want to be a broken record about this or trivialize that it would be a somewhat tricky management challenge(earn your money Craig, I guess?), but Bellinger can play RF and Seiya can DH.  For that matter, maybe Seiya *should* DH given how he's graded out at the position over 2 years and how much emphasis the roster has around defense.  And even if you're convinced the 'if PCA hits' outcome is definitely 1B, don't forget that Bellinger adds value above the typical 1B with his speed, and as such even with offensive regression would still be around a 3 win 1B.  I understand how that may not be optimal given the power composition of the rest of the lineup, but it doesn't scare me off making the upgrade if that's what's there.  Though I am on the team that doesn't want PCA up until Memorial Day and am trying to remind myself that the odds are decent he's a platoon or worse bat in a lot of different outcomes.