Cade Horton's Blister Could Be Small Relief Cubs Need—or the Thing That Kills Their Playoff Hopes

If you're in an optimistic frame of mind, Cade Horton coming down with a blister isn't the worst news. The Cubs have been trying to keep his workload closely managed, but even so, Horton has already surpassed 115 innings pitched this year. That's after throwing just 88 1/3 in his first pro season of 2023, and 34 1/3 last year before being shut down with arm trouble. He should be in position to pitch as many as 140 innings this year without causing harm, but that number's already right around the corner.

With Javier Assad having made a successful return from the injured list and Jameson Taillon set to do the same Monday night, moving Horton to the injured list for the rest of August might be the right thing for his long-term future and the club's roster management conundrums. Assad was optioned to Triple-A Iowa earlier Monday, but not even the relatively short-term plans actually include him being stashed there. Nudging Horton aside and embracing a rotation of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Assad and Taillon (with reinforcement from Ben Brown) makes a certain kind of sense.

Let's be realistic, though: most Cubs fans are (understandably) not up to much optimism right now. The realist's slant on this news is much more grim. With the team embarking on a long stretch without off days to alleviate stress on the pitching staff, losing Horton could fracture the entire structure of that group. More to the point, Horton has been an indispensable part of that staff ever since he arrived. Entering Monday, the Cubs were 11-5 in his outings this year. In the time since his debut, they're 37-31 in games he doesn't pitch. Horton was their talisman. Though Boyd and Imanaga have been more consistent, Horton has been just as important—and since the All-Star break, he's been their best overall starter.

With Horton sidelined and the offense suffocated by Freddy Peralta and the Brewers, Milwaukee cruised to victory in the first game of Monday's twinbill. That didn't change anything important in the division race, which the Brewers will win fairly easily. However, the loss brought the Cubs down to 70-54, which means that they'll need to play above-.500 baseball the rest of the way to reach 90 wins. Their fight, now, should be for the top Wild Card spot, and winning 90 games will almost certainly be required to grab that position. Without Horton, though, they could end up scrambling just to hold onto playoff position. Things are getting much more precarious than the team's fans hoped they would become, back in May or June.

Maybe Horton won't even be forced to miss a start. He might be ok to pitch, on a weekly basis, and just need to make adjustments to his pitch mix (maybe his curveball particularly exacerbated this issue, for instance) or tolerate the pain involved. Maybe the blister will be treatable and non-recurring. For that matter, maybe Taillon and Assad will step into their spots in the rotation and win games at the same rate Horton was, on the strength of their own performances and an offensive resurgence. 

Right now, though, the future of the 2025 Cubs is suddenly much murkier. Horton was one player they were ill-prepared to lose, after having already lost trade acquisition Michael Soroka almost as soon as they got him. We won't know more for a few days. but the balance of this series just became more important—not because there's any hope of catching Milwaukee, but because that team is good enough to keep beating the Cubs all week and leave the team on the fringes of the playoff picture by the weekend. Without Horton, the stability the team might hope to establish thereafter will be harder to find.