Anatomy of an At-Bat: Kyle Schwarber's Bomb Gives Ben Brown A Changeup Blueprint

Just one week ago, our own Jason Ross broke down a plate appearance that CJ Abrams had against Cade Horton. Jason went pitch-by-pitch, examining what each pitch meant, and what the plate appearance as a whole signified for Horton’s development.

I recommend you check that piece out, mostly because it’s a good article, but also because it’s inspired me to write a similar piece about one of Ben Brown’s showdowns against Kyle Schwarber from last week. Specifically, the one where Schwarber launched a home run.

Before we jump into the plate appearance, let’s catch you up on where we’re at in the game. The Cubs find themselves in an early 3-0 hole, and the young right-hander is facing the Phillies' order the second time through. The first time he faced Schwarber, he walked him on a full count, throwing five fastballs and one curveball. 

Now, on to the plate appearance in question, with nobody on and nobody out in the third inning:

Not a horrible pitch to start things off with, but also probably not precisely where Brown wanted it. Brown was either trying to sneak a curveball by Schwarber when he was anticipating a fastball for an easy strike one, or he was going for the chase down and out of the zone.

The thing is, and Cubs fans are likely familiar with this. Schwarber is a tough player to get a chase from: he has swung at just 20.8 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, according to FanGraphs. That is 15th lowest in baseball, and for comparison’s sake, the league average is 28 percent. Brown yanking that pitch inside a bit likely eliminated the chance for Schwarber to swing through it.

Here’s the next pitch:

A changeup, and a beauty at that. You can even see Schwarber give a little nod of approval after taking that pitch for a strike. 

This is the whole reason I wanted to write this piece to begin with. Since May 19, 7.1 percent of Brown’s pitches thrown have been changeups, per FanGraphs. That might not feel like a lot, but prior to May 19, it was just 2.3 percent, so he has more than tripled his usage of it. He needs a third pitch, and he is, at least, trying to incorporate the changeup more often. That pitch right there is what it looks like when he does so successfully. 

Now, for the 1-1 pitch:

Another curveball, down and out of the zone that the former Cub spits on. Schwarber has now taken two of these pitches, and didn’t look particularly interested in swinging at either one. For someone like Brown, who has historically been a two-pitch pitcher, this puts him in a bind. He’s either not throwing the curveball well enough to get a chase from a guy like Schwarber, or, Schwarber is seeing it really well out of Brown’s hand. 

Neither is a good sign. According to FanGraphs, Brown is in the zone with his curveball only 43.5 percent of the time, and he gets chases on 40.2 percent of those pitches. He relies on hitters chasing his curveball down and out of the zone, and Schwarber wasn’t biting. This likely left Brown feeling like he couldn’t go to his best pitch. So, what pitch did he throw next?

The changeup! Except that this one is incredibly poorly executed, and illustrates that Brown is clearly still very uncomfortable with the pitch. Despite the increased usage, Brown throws his changeup in the strike zone only 39.6 percent of the time, but only induces swings on 10.3 percent of those pitches, per FanGraphs. That’s not great, and looking at the heat map for his changeup this year, it’s clear he has no command of it:

Now, Ben Brown is down 3-1. Schwarber wasn’t at all fooled by Brown’s best pitch, the curveball. While he did execute a good changeup on the 1-0 pitch, the 2-1 changeup was entirely uncompetitive. His only options now are to try and get the chase with the curveball again and be ok if you end up walking him, or try to breeze a fastball by him. Schwarber knew this, too, and I am fairly certain you already know he was more than ready for it:

Ben Brown is clearly working on incorporating a changeup more often. That is a good thing. This plate appearance clearly illustrates the need for it, and how Brown still has a ways to go with his development of it. The curveball won’t always work against good hitters like Schwarber, and if he isn’t comfortable throwing the changeup, hitters know he has to go to the fastball. That’s exactly what happened here, and the Cubs paid the price for it.