2025 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread: Chicago Cubs Draft on North Side Baseball

So…….Jack Bauer?

Kiley had Kepley #54 on his board 

I kind of wonder if the Cubs were in a rock and a hard place. If, for example, you wanted to take Young and Flemming and they went back-to-back, Kepley is likely a slot-value high floor type, and you can re-assess into the third to find the higher ceiling prospect you were coveting at the 2nd. 

Kepley almost feels like a "fall back" plan.

6 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

So…….Jack Bauer?

Still on the board. Teams probably skittish about a HS arm that gained so much velocity in one year, the injury risk there skyrockets. Also, he was used mostly sparingly this season, and any time he went more than an inning, subsequent innings he'd sit low to mid 90s. He's a high risk high ceiling pick.

20 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I could be convinced on Conrad pretty easily, but I just don't see it on Kepley. Excellent defense but a poor arm, excellent speed but little to no power.  I mean this is like a Nick Madrigal type ceiling unless there's something that's missing.

He has way more speed and we'll have more value defensively than Madrigal, plus Kepley actually walks it seems, but the no pop seems to track.

I have a hard time bagging on drafts. I'm sure I could turn the clock back to threads from the last 20 years where I was praying the Cubs wouldn't take future HOFers and hoping beyond hope they'd take guys who flamed out in AA.

Except Hayden Simpson. horsefeathers that pick.

Effing Breslow sniping all the pitching in front of the Cubs

5 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I have a hard time bagging on drafts. I'm sure I could turn the clock back to threads from the last 20 years where I was praying the Cubs wouldn't take future HOFers and hoping beyond hope they'd take guys who flamed out in AA.

Except Hayden Simpson. horsefeathers that pick.

Yeah, MLB drafts especially are hard to project and hard to analyze until basically 5 years later and depend a lot on organizational development. 

Holy hell get this guy a haircut immediately

Dominick Reid. Honestly hadn’t looked at him before this

Yeesh. A second pick I'm not overly enthused with. 

MLB has Reid at #209

So. I like these picks in a vacuum. If you told me the Cubs took these three guys individually, I'd be okay with each one. Conrad, Kepler, and Reid all make sense as Cubs picks.

But, together? It doesn't look fantastic on paper.

FG and ESPN don't have him ranked.  I'd assume an underslot pick

Low 90s fastball, plus changeup, below average breaking ball. Let’s hope the lab unlocks some stuff

I'll go back to my idea that Kepler was the fallback. Reid is underslot. I think this is a "regroup, work the phones, big guys come tomorrow" type of a deal.

Like Reid physically- 6'3, 201  lbs and athletic. Very projectable... Also like this from MLB:

"Reid does a nice job of moving his running fastball around the strike zone, working at 91-94 mph and reaching 96 with the ability to get carry at the letters or sink at the knees. He throws his best pitch, an 82-84 mph changeup with fade and sink, nearly as much as his heater and will double and triple up on it, even against right-handers. He led all NCAA Division I pitchers with 66 strikeouts via the cambo."

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'll go back to my idea that Kepler was the fallback. Reid is underslot. I think this is a "regroup, work the phones, big guys come tomorrow" type of a deal.

I agree, this is about the Big Picture, but in the moment, it's disappointing.

Zumach thinks Reid compares favorably to Bremner, FWIW

 

Cubs are pretty good at coaxing out velo.  Get Reid living more up towards the top end of his current range and he's probably very suddenly a guy.

15 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Zumach thinks Reid compares favorably to Bremner, FWIW

That's good, but the FB isn't the same. I can the Cubs thinking they can get his FB up (he's very projectable and the Cubs have had success increasing velocity), but as of today they have different FBs.

Greg Z had hinted the Cubs liked Dominick Reid pre-draft.

There's definitely some slot savings from Conrad and Reid. Maybe Kepley too. Maybe they've saved $1-$1.4 million today to spread out tomorrow.

Wonder if the Cubs cash in some of that overslot money in the 4th round tomorrow after making some calls tonight. And then another push in the 11th round when the loss of pool space risk drops off. 

3 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Greg predicted a $750K savings when he mocked Conrad last night.

Sounds like I could have been low on that as well

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm hoping I come around on that pick like I did a few of the ones I didn't like last year, but it's real hard for me to come to terms with using your full 2nd round slot on a guy who maybe is a 4th OFer.

Clearly Kantrovitz doesn't envision him as a 4th OF if he's picking him in the 2nd and using at or nearly full slot.

And I feel like Kantrovitz has had some success in St Louis with that archetype of annoying starting position player who didn't tremendous draft pedigree (and he has a few minor leaguers in that mold with the Cubs too - Christian Franklin, Brett Bateman, Jonathon Long, Carter Trice).