2025 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread: Chicago Cubs Draft on North Side Baseball

Woohoo, it's finally here!

Late rumors have Wehiwa Aloy and Marek Houston slipping, with Devin Taylor and Ethan Conrad getting attention as possible underslot candidates in the Cubs' range.

This is also the first draft in awhile where the #1 pick hasn't been sussed out yet, from what I remember. Bazzana came close, but I believe the Guardians made their intentions known around this point last year.

Zumach mocks Ethan Conrad. 

Personal feeling is swaying that whomever the Cubs pick (and I think Conrad makes a lot of sense) will be underslot with the goal to overslot prep players in rounds 2-4 and then again with their "11th round special" every season. Perhaps with an eye to the amount of talent that will be lost in the next 2-3 weeks, taking Conrad (who could have been a top-10/15 pick had he remained healthy) and 3-4 upside prep guys would conceivably restock a bunch of what you lose from a pure ceiling perspective.

28 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Zumach mocks Ethan Conrad. 

Personal feeling is swaying that whomever the Cubs pick (and I think Conrad makes a lot of sense) will be underslot with the goal to overslot prep players in rounds 2-4 and then again with their "11th round special" every season. Perhaps with an eye to the amount of talent that will be lost in the next 2-3 weeks, taking Conrad (who could have been a top-10/15 pick had he remained healthy) and 3-4 upside prep guys would conceivably restock a bunch of what you lose from a pure ceiling perspective.

Not sure if they're going to go so prep heavy. I think they'll want a couple of shots, but they're going to need guys who could plausibly develop into big league options within the next couple of years (roster faces a cliff post-2026). I wouldn't be surprised if they went with two college guys early, took a relatively large prep shot in round 3 or something, then made a couple of smaller upside bets on day two.

4 minutes ago, nochiinchamp said:

Not sure if they're going to go so prep heavy. I think they'll want a couple of shots, but they're going to need guys who could plausibly develop into big league options within the next couple of years (roster faces a cliff post-2026). I wouldn't be surprised if they went with two college guys early, took a relatively large prep shot in round 3 or something, then made a couple of smaller upside bets on day two.

They'll take some college pitchers and hitters in rounds 5-10, and then mostly from 12-20. But the reason you underslot at #1 is to get overslot preps. I'm not sure there is anyone in the 3rd round you'd go that overslot for that you'd under at #17. Conrad, on Zumach's mock (and Zumach is plugged in) would save around $750K. You spend that almost immediately on #56 (akin to Horton/Ferris). Doyle spoke to the number of prep hitters and pitchers he expects to forgo college this year and the Cubs are a "zig when everyone else is zagging" kind of drafter; going under at 17 would allow them to scoop up some extra prep players in that light.

The Cubs have shown that they have full-scale draft "themes" but never draft for need, so I would be surprised if they went into today with any sort of thought that the draft was going to solve the roster cliff post-2026. That's just 1.5 years in MiLB and the only players they have seen rocket through a system like that are Smith (who they traded) and Shaw who I like a bunch, but has struggled. 

Conrad seems to have a little more juice athletically than some of the other bats in the Cubs range.  And if the Cubs are sniffing around him then clearly the data is sterling too.  I'd be down.

That said it feels I'd be shocked if there's not at least two pitchers I'd rather have on the board at our pick.

Devin Taylor also makes sense as an underslot if you buy the Schwarber Lite comps.

13 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They'll take some college pitchers and hitters in rounds 5-10, and then mostly from 12-20. But the reason you underslot at #1 is to get overslot preps. I'm not sure there is anyone in the 3rd round you'd go that overslot for that you'd under at #17. Conrad, on Zumach's mock (and Zumach is plugged in) would save around $750K. You spend that almost immediately on #56 (akin to Horton/Ferris). Doyle spoke to the number of prep hitters and pitchers he expects to forgo college this year and the Cubs are a "zig when everyone else is zagging" kind of drafter; going under at 17 would allow them to scoop up some extra prep players in that light.

The Cubs have shown that they have full-scale draft "themes" but never draft for need, so I would be surprised if they went into today with any sort of thought that the draft was going to solve the roster cliff post-2026. That's just 1.5 years in MiLB and the only players they have seen rocket through a system like that are Smith (who they traded) and Shaw who I like a bunch, but has struggled. 

I was thinking more that they'd cut to get a guy firmly in their top 25 along with two players who are in their top 60ish with 56 and 90. $750K saved should accomplish that. I believe Kantrovitz talked about the draft being relatively deep after the initial drop off. That, combined with the system thinning out, has me thinking they're not going to be shooting for a guy who was expected to go in the comp A round or something.

Law has Willits slipping to St. Louis. Just their luck

10 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Devin Taylor also makes sense as an underslot if you buy the Schwarber Lite comps.

I am a fan of his, honestly. Much more than Conrad. I wonder if Fischer comes into play at all as well. 

This question comes up a lot:

"Where does this guy rank in our system now?"

I think barring something shocking, our 1st rounder will slot 7th.  And then assuming neither is a money saver pick, both the other guys today will land in the 10-12 range.

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This question comes up a lot:

"Where does this guy rank in our system now?"

I think barring something shocking, our 1st rounder will slot 7th.  And then assuming neither is a money saver pick, both the other guys today will land in the 10-12 range.

Depending on who is drafted, I'd have Caissie, Wiggins, Rojas, Balleteros way ahead, Alcantara slightly ahead and then I'd have them in the same tier with Long and Triantos.

 

3 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

Woohoo, it's finally here!

Late rumors have Wehiwa Aloy and Marek Houston slipping, with Devin Taylor and Ethan Conrad getting attention as possible underslot candidates in the Cubs' range.

This is also the first draft in awhile where the #1 pick hasn't been sussed out yet, from what I remember. Bazzana came close, but I believe the Guardians made their intentions known around this point last year.

Andrew Fischer is another underslot college bat option.

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Zumach mocks Ethan Conrad. 

Personal feeling is swaying that whomever the Cubs pick (and I think Conrad makes a lot of sense) will be underslot with the goal to overslot prep players in rounds 2-4 and then again with their "11th round special" every season. Perhaps with an eye to the amount of talent that will be lost in the next 2-3 weeks, taking Conrad (who could have been a top-10/15 pick had he remained healthy) and 3-4 upside prep guys would conceivably restock a bunch of what you lose from a pure ceiling perspective.

https://open.substack.com/pub/baseballtribune/p/baseball-tribunes-2025-mlb-mock-draft-b67?r=1tfnx7&utm_medium=ios
 

Coming down to Neyens at slot or Conrad under slot is interesting:

Quote

How the Cubs draft: we saw the Cubs prioritize players who the organization viewed as falling to them in Howard and Wicks, but unless something really crazy happened in 2022, they were very into the profile of Horton. This is an organization that has been willing to target upside with their top few selections over the past few years. In 2023 and 2024, the Cubs effectively sat back and waited for a top talent to fall. It’s an excellent strategy that many of the best organizations employ. Those plans resulted in Matt Shaw and Cam Smith, who both looked like impact players in their debuts. For position players, wood bat performance appears to carry significant weight.

Over the past two drafts, the Cubs have drafted 18 pitchers. Only 1 has been 6’0” or shorter. This is something to watch regarding pitching targets, but it also doesn’t imply the Cubs would rule out a shorter arm early in the draft. I’d strongly believe the Cubs had Jurrangelo Cijntje (listed at 5’11”) in the first round mix last year.

17th pick slot value: $4,750,800
Projected bonus value: $4,000,800

Report: At the very end I considered two main players available, Conrad and Xavier Neyens. Ultimately I believe the Cubs would favor an underslot and I’ve felt since last fall that Conrad fits the Cubs model to a tee as long as medicals come out okay. He hit on the Cape, he lines up at a premium position (CF though may slide down to a corner), and his metrics line up. Conrad adapted to a bigger conference before his shoulder injury.

The elephant in the room when discussing metrics with players is that metrics like batted-ball data above was really the second generation of improved player analysis. First evaluators used production (mathematics according to Moneyball) to “cut through all that”, then batted ball metrics provided a deeper understanding and projection. Now teams also utilize biomechanics in a way that’s not truly quantifiable on the public side. I can’t speak to all that so my projection on Conrad or Neyens is based on a puzzle missing some pieces.

This move saves $750k and in a class like this, it’s best to load up with a lot of intriguing options in rounds 2-4.

There are a number of interesting preps that could make sense in this scenario: Neyens, Kayson Cunningham, Gavin Fien, Daniel Pierce, Josh Hammond come to mind. All would be exciting options. On the bat side, I wonder about Ethan Conrad and Andrew Fischer over Wehiwa Aloy.

But I’ve been wrong before so if Aloy is the selection it’s both very much a model selection and the worst kept secret in the draft.

 

I don’t remember what Shaw or Cam smith’s chase rates were in college, but it just seems weird to me that Aloy keeps getting linked to the Cubs with that ugly chase rate. 

If you take someone underslot at 17 I wonder how feasible it is to float a Quentin young down to 56

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If you take someone underslot at 17 I wonder how feasible it is to float a Quentin young down to 56

I would love Young. I think Raisin posted a blurb awhile ago that the Dodgers were looking hard at him at the end of the 1st. He seems like a good bet to be a comp pick to me.

I can't pretend to know a lot about these guys or that I'm a good talent scout. So I'll just say I hope the Cubs go high character college bat. This has seemed to be a formula that's worked really well for the Cubs in round 1. 

 

 

I'm just rooting for the model to get what it wants. 

 

Love the idea of Melendez. Longenhagen talked about him fitting into the Jett Williams/Kevin McGonigle mold physically while being able to rotate. Real MIF skills. Super young for the class too. Would be shocked if he's not high on their board.

33 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Love the Shannon pick, for two reasons. One, takes away a UoL commit and two he is from my former (a long 20 years former) HS. 

5 hours ago, Hrubes20 said:

I am a fan of his, honestly. Much more than Conrad. I wonder if Fischer comes into play at all as well. 

Would rather not draft a DH (Fischer) with our 1st round pick. I wrote this in the other thread, but he’s also a locker room cancer. Heard this from multiple players on the Ole Miss team. He was not liked at all. Hope the Cubs stay away honestly. 

4 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

https://open.substack.com/pub/baseballtribune/p/baseball-tribunes-2025-mlb-mock-draft-b67?r=1tfnx7&utm_medium=ios
 

Coming down to Neyens at slot or Conrad under slot is interesting:

 

Neyens would be a major departure from how they draft. Prep power hitter who looks more like a 1b isn't their norm in the last half-decade at the top of the draft. It is really interesting.