2024 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread

Man, seems like the Cubs went heavy on scouting plays with pitchers this year. This just feels like a weird draft for the Cubs to me. Love Cam Smith though. Happy to have taken him. 

4 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Yep…Carter Trice is looking good, should be but won’t be considered at least a top 20 prospect in the system. ..

I just looked at Trice's stats.  He's caught 8 games, with 3 errors, 3 passed balls, and 25 stolen bases.  I wonder if that's just typical stolen-base attempt rate in low A?  

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Kantrovitz doesn’t expect any surprises, anticipating all 20 players the Cubs selected will sign. The Cubs ultimately chose nine pitchers (six right-handers and three left-handers), seven infielders, two outfielders and two catchers.

 

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Chicago Cubs

Best value: Ivan Brethowr, RF, No. 154 overall

Where best player drafted ranks on team list: 8th (Cam Smith)

Sleeper to watch: Cole Mathis, 1B (No. 54). Mathis had top-two-rounds buzz entering the spring after a strong Cape Cod League performance (.318 average, 11 homers, 1.048 OPS in 38 games) and had a solid but not overwhelming regular season (.335 average, 14 homers, 1.122 OPS in 52 games). Meanwhile, other major college hitters went off this spring, so the buzz after the regular season was that Mathis had a number of landing spots in the second round. The thought is that, as he moves past an elbow injury and stops pitching, there could be more upside at the plate.

One big thought: The Cubs are leaning more into power hitters and power arms in recent drafts. Smith, Mathis and Brethowr are potential middle-of-the-order hitters. Last year's draft featured Matt Shaw and Jaxon Wiggins, while the year before was led by Cade Horton, Nazier Mule, Brandon Birdsell and Jackson Ferris. In the Yu Darvish trade before the 2021 season, the best player in the return is Owen Caissie, who has among the biggest raw power in the minors and is now a top-100 prospect. Keep an eye on 11th-rounder prep right-fielder Eli Lovich; he was a late-riser with third-round grades from a few teams.

 

Kiley McDaniel 

 

Do yourself a favor and google image search the Phillies 11 round pick. 

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Do yourself a favor and google image search the Phillies 11 round pick. 

He looks like a create-a-wrestler.

1 hour ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

He looks like a create-a-wrestler.

Nah. That's Kenny Powers: The Early Years.

3 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

Nah. That's Kenny Powers: The Early Years.

I see that.

On 7/16/2024 at 5:58 PM, JBears79 said:

Man, seems like the Cubs went heavy on scouting plays with pitchers this year. This just feels like a weird draft for the Cubs to me. Love Cam Smith though. Happy to have taken him. 

It's the kind of draft you have in a weird class. The general belief was that this was a very top-heavy draft and that there was a significant fall off in the 2nd-3rd round ranges. 

I also cannot stress enough that people need to worry less about rankings than they do. Not that you're doing that, but these rankings once you get past the top-top are largely meaningless. It's a lot of "when you saw a kid" because there's just too many kids to watch from a national industry standard. Teams have more specificity in what they're looking at and for and do more legwork on those individuals. 

I don't think it's a very weird draft when you add that into all of the metric data we have seen on these guys. Most players have been metric darlings; they don't chase and have high EV. Many have previous experience with wood bats and hit at the Cape. Some of these guys didn't play in the SEC, but you hope that one or two of them use these strong tools and they translate to better and better competition as well as take to player development. The Cubs went into a shallow draft, targeted batted ball profile and are hoping that translates. I know the general belief right now in Cub Fandom is that the Cubs can't develop hitters at the MLB level but the tip of that spear is only just hitting that level. They've had strong years from most of their top hitting prospects year over year so I think they're on the right track. They're hoping that helps here, too.

The ROI in MLB drafts are low. If they get anything out of a 4th round pick to begin with, it's a win. Even more so from guys in the 7th like Ivan Brethowr. So while the rankings might not love an Edgar Alvarez, 8th round picks fail most of the time. Even a 3rd round like Ronny Cruz...those guys don't pan out most of the time. With everything taken at that level, this is just a baseball draft. I'd far rather the Cubs have a defined draft strategy; target Cape performances and metric darlings than them just shoot from the hip.