2025 Cubs Offseason Handbook: Analyzing Team's Payroll Situation and Roster Questions

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You can't say this team never surprises you—even if it's the players, as often as it is the key decision-makers. The Cubs' offseason began with a bang Saturday, when Cody Bellinger exercised his player option for 2025 and cemented himself as a part of the team's roster for next season, barring a trade. After a season marred by injury and not quite buffed to a shine by his performances between them, Bellinger was wise to assure himself of $30 million more, while preserving the right to collect another $20 million next winter even if there's no market for his services. Still, given the balance of reporting that came out over the past two months, the move comes as a mild surprise, and it upends some of the narratives fans and analysts had already begun to construct about what kind of offseason the team might have.

As I wrote last week, it seems as though Bellinger's decision could dip the Cubs back under the competitive-balance tax threshold, long after the concrete set on the expectation that the team would be above that line. Whether they were above it in 2024 only has a small, marginal impact, though. The large, crucial question is whether the team intends to exceed that threshold in 2025—and, if so, by how much. That, rather than Bellinger's decision, figures to be the major determinant of the number of options the Cubs have this winter, and of which ones they ultimately pursue.

One thing is clear: With Bellinger or without him, the team has some freedom to spend. A lot of money is sloughing off their books, and not much of the freed-up salary was attached to vital players. The team's core is largely intact, though it still needs a substantial upgrade, and their budget should be robust enough to permit any approach the team deems most advisable. Let's carefully assess what they do owe to various players under contract; their key financial dilemmas; and the roster math that will rule their winter and help determine their fate next spring and summer.