What does the JP trade tell us? ( If it happens!!)

[TB_11]

I'm not real concerned with stolen bases at all. But I would like more team speed.

 

Speed allows guys (Morton, for instance) to run out infield hits. It allows guys to take an extra base on gappers, or score from first on singles and doubles who might otherwise wind up languishing on second for the final out of the inning.

 

Given the choice, I'd prefer EVERYONE on the team be fast, but I really care very little whether or not anyone steals 40 or 50 bases.

 

I care more about the fact that JP, for example, is coming off an awful season. So if we do get him (and I'm not saying we shouldn't), we simply better pay a fiar price, and not overpay for him.

 

And, this move should not be made in lieu of better moves. this should not PRECLUDE us from shoring up RF, and going after guys we've already targetted in the rotation, pen, and infield. If it does that, it's a terrible move.

 

 

 

I don't mind Hendry going out and making trades and acquisitions. That's all fine and dandy- even if it's a position we don't necesarilly NEED a trade or aciquisition at, or one that should not be priority #1. But trading for Pierre doesn't we CANNOT still get Giles, Furcal, Burnett, or anyone else. If it DOES, then it's a HUGE mistake.

 

The best post in this thread =D>

 

As far as JP's ability to steal bases - stolen bases only begin to help a team score runs when the runner is successful ~70% of the time (some of the more devoted statheads here can probably provide the exact percentage), as the out is more valuable than the extra base in most situations . JP's stolen base percentage the past three years has been 76%, 65%, and 77%. His career rate is 74%. That stolen base rate suggests only a marginal benefit to his team from stealing bases.

[fromthestretch]

Once again, I was just responding to a post that said stolen bases aren't valuable. I tend to disagree. I never said sign Pierre because hypothetically he could win us a game with a stolen base. Pierre being fast is not going to hurt this team. Speed is a good thing. Just looking at his SB% doesn't tell you everything. He is a good leadoff hitter who had 1 down year. I think he'll bounce back and be a very good for this team next year.

 

He's an OK leadoff hitter that has had TWO down years...2002 and 2005. He doesn't walk much, which means that if he doesn't hit over .300, his OBP is going to be less than desirable.

Well, good thing he's a career .305 hitter then. Also, he walks just as much as Todd Walker, and a lot of you were and still are calling him a good leadoff option.

 

Career .305 hitter or not, the two seasons he didn't hit .300, his OBP wasn't impressive at all...and one of those years was in Colorado. I look at Pierre, and I see two things he brings to the table: great contact and great speed. That great speed doesn't mean squat if he isn't getting on base to use it. He has virtually no power at all. His numbers in the triples column are nice to look at, but you also have to factor in where he played half his games - Colorado and Florida...two teams that have spacious outfields in their stadiums. (NOTE: The argument about his lack of power has nothing to do with his ability to leadoff and get on base...just pointing out that outside of contact and speed, he doesn't bring much else to the table.)

 

As for your comparison with Walker...Walker has walked once every 12.2 plate appearances for his career, which isn't exceptional, but still better than Pierre, who has walked once every 16.6 plate appearances.

 

Walker was the best option on the Cubs roster to bat leadoff. I'd still be fine with him batting leadoff in 2006, if the Cubs would take the Furcal money and use it somehow to get some big bats for the outfield. Pierre is probably going to make between $4 and 5 million in 2006. Walker will make $2.5 million. Walker's OBP has been over .350 the past two seasons (and in five of the last six years)...not ideal, but much better than what the Cubs got out of the leadoff spot in 2005.