Cubs Offseason Trade Target: Steven Kwan Is the Nico Hoerner of Left Fielders

[Matt Ostrowski]

Following Steven Kwan’s career over the past five seasons, I have never quite shaken the feeling that he was going to somehow join the Chicago Cubs someday. For better or worse, small-market teams often look to deal good players in their arbitration years as they get expensive, both to avoid paying them those more expensive salaries, and to recoup some value from said player before they depart in free agency. 

In Kyle Tucker and Edward Cabrera, the Cubs have taken advantage of this in each of the past two offseasons, to varying degrees of success. Jed Hoyer has shown that he loves players of Kwan’s ilk. That is, guys who aren’t super-duper-stars, but rather, well-above-average players who are available that he doesn’t have to completely break the bank for.

Basically, I am talking about Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. There are other illustrations of this, but those are the first two guys I thought about, and they are probably the first two guys you thought about, too. 

Funny enough, since Kwan’s debut in 2022, his numbers look eerily similar to that of Hoerner’s:

Player	PA	HR	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	fWAR
Hoerner	3184	41	6.4%	9.8%	.279	.334	.381	20.2
Kwan	3226	39	10.1%	9.5%	.282	.357	.382	18.7

On the defensive side of things, according to Fielding Run Value at Baseball Savant, Kwan was the 19th-best outfielder in baseball this past season. Hoerner was 16th amongst infielders. The latter has generally been a bit more valuable defensively, hence the advantage in fWAR, but both of these guys are seen as well-above-average defenders at their respective positions.

Likewise, in almost the same number of plate appearances, both players have about the same power output, same batting average, and same strikeout rate. Where Kwan edges Hoerner is with his walk rate, which even ballooned up to 13.3 percent in the 2026 season. This makes him a slightly better offensive player than Hoerner, with a 112 wRC+ in this timeframe compared to the Cubs’ second baseman’s 102 wRC+. 

This offensive profile makes Kwan, just like Hoerner, somewhat streaky. When your game is built on putting the ball in play so often that enough of them find holes, it becomes incredibly noticeable when those balls are not finding holes. Your offensive output plummets. 

Of course this is the case; it feels obvious. The thing with Hoerner and Kwan, though, is that they don’t have home run power to fall back on. This makes their games all the more reliant on their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). This is evident if we look at Kwan’s first half of the 2026 season vs. the second half:

Half	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+
First	.225	.332	.282	.251	81
Second	.353	.443	.432	.388	155

Some of this was deserved: the outfielder’s line-drive rate went from 24.1 percent in the first half to 30.7 percent in the second half. Those generally fall in for hits more often. His ground ball rate also increased slightly; those go for hits for a guy like Kwan more often than, say, fly balls, which he hit at a significantly lower rate in the second half. 

Despite Chris Antonetti, president of baseball operations for the Guardians, declaring that “we’re expecting Steven Kwan to be a big part of a contending team next year,” there have already been loads of rumors regarding the outfielder. The Cubs, surely, will be involved in a rumor or two. They have an opening in left field sans Ian Happ, and Kwan is a good player. 

I am fascinated at the idea of having both Hoerner and Kwan in a lineup. It also terrifies me. Having two players, who are both so unique and similar, can be both a good and a bad thing. The highs would be electric, but the troughs would be unbelievably frustrating.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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