The Annual Cubs Bullpen Reckoning is Here

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

By mid-May 2024, the Cubs were in trouble. They'd built their bullpen plans around three right-handed pitchers: flamethrower Julian Merryweather, coming off a 2023 season in which he'd gone from an unnoticed waiver claim to a relief ace; analytics darling Yency Almonte, part of the Michael Busch trade; and Héctor Neris, a free-agent reclamation project whom the team hoped would rediscover the swing-and-miss that made him a dominant closer in Houston. Within a month and a half, Merryweather and Almonte were sidelined by injuries from which they still haven't really recovered, and Neris was clearly a failed experiment.

In desperation, Jed Hoyer scooped up former Cubs farmhand Tyson Miller, who was on the outside looking in for the Mariners at the time. Miller's funky delivery and command of a terrific cutting fastball/sweeper combination turned out to be more than enough to offset his lack of velocity, though, and he became one part of a rebuilt Chicago bullpen. Miller pitched 50 1/3 innings in 49 appearances for Chicago that year, with a 22.5% strikeout rate, a 5.3% walk rate, and a 2.15 ERA. Along with fellow scrapheap find Jorge López and developmental breakthrough Porter Hodge, Miller saved that bullpen—though it wasn't quite enough to save the season.

Last spring, the crisis arrived even sooner. Ryan Pressly was a flop, just as Neris had been. It was Hodge's turn to get hurt and never be the same. Ryan Brasier and Eli Morgan, too, had been waylaid by arm trouble. The team had rousing successes in Caleb Thielbar and Brad Keller, but they were short on healthy arms and pitchers who could absorb innings to keep Craig Counsell from having to overuse his best relievers. Hoyer found salvation in Seattle again, this time purchasing the rights to Drew Pomeranz. The two-pitch southpaw pitched 57 times for Counsell, with a 2.17 ERA and similarly solid strikeout and walk numbers. He gave the team time to find the hierarchy that worked for them the rest of the year, headlined by Keller, emerging homegrown star Daniel Palencia, and trade deadline acquisition Andrew Kittredge—along with Pomeranz and Thielbar.

Those are just a few examples of Hoyer finding improbable ways to assemble viable bullpens on the fly. Mark Leiter Jr., Rowan Wick and Scott Effross also number among his success stories. On the other hand, it can be too easy to forget all the acquisitions who didn't hurt the team as glaringly or cost as much to sign as Pressly, Neris, Almonte or Morgan, but who also didn't yield what the front office hoped for—guys like Nate Pearson, Michael Fulmer, and José Cuas. In some important degree, the Cubs' bullpen magic has been the product of good luck and/or good timing. Even having gotten it broadly right over the last three years doesn't guarantee that the team will do so again.

That's a scary notion, because lo, they already need to do it again. Palencia, Hunter Harvey, and Phil Maton have already hit the injured list, along with lower-upside options Ethan Roberts and Hodge. Injuries to the starting rotation have drawn Colin Rea and Javier Assad into that duty and away from the pen, though Wednesday's return of Matthew Boyd put Assad in the pen again for now. On Thursday, the team might have suffered another loss, as Thielbar left in the ninth inning of the team's game against the Phillies with a hamstring problem. 

The relief pitching scaffolds Hoyer built this winter have already crumbled. He'll have to go out and find an arm outside the organization, and the sooner, the better. However, his track record only goes a short way in providing real confidence about the outcome of that addition. The Cubs need relief help, right away, but the odds of them nailing yet another such move feel lousy,

The good news, of course, is that Ben Brown is settling into his new role gorgeously. Having failed in an extended audition as a starter last season and not having earned even a top-7 spot on the rotation depth chart this spring, Brown is now a reliever in full. He's taking to it marvelously.

Brown's fastball is up a tick, sitting just under 97 MPH. His curveball, meanwhile, is as firm as ever, but with slightly more depth. After two years of trying to get the changeup right, he's leaning more into the two-seamer this season, creating the lane change he's long needed to keep right-handed batters off the two main pitches in his arsenal. As a result, he's running numbers similar to what Pomeranz and Miller gave the Cubs over the last two seasons, but in more volume. If the team stops needing him to give them multiple innings within games, there might even be another gear, but this version of him is already a viable stand-in for Palencia and Maton.

With some luck, the team will get at least one of their top right-handed relievers back soon, and keep them healthy the rest of the way. To survive their current barrage of injuries, though, they need outside help, and that means that risk lies ahead. They've done some things right already. There are encouraging signs about the usefulness of homegrown lefty Riley Martin and minor-league signing Corbin Martin, each of whom are (for the moment) healthy. Brown is what they need him to be. With so many pitchers already hurt, though, what they have so far is necessary but not sufficient.

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