Javier Assad's Improved Changeup Could Take Him to the Next Level

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The fastest player in the league hit a sharp one-hopper, almost perfectly placed. With a runner going and Nico Hoerner breaking toward second base to cover a potential throw Tuesday night, Chandler Simpson hit behind the runner. It was still (more or less) up the middle, but Hoerner was moving away from the play. He changed direction gorgeously and speared the ball cleanly on a dive. However, his internal clock got overwound, as he processed the way he'd had to arrest his own momentum and the fact that Simpson gets up the line better than almost anyone else in the league. He rushed and bobbled the exchange, and wasn't able to get the out. It's too bad. He had time, after all, but no way to know that.

That play is notable in only one way, really: It's the only hit Javier Assad gave up on Tuesday night. In his first start in the stead of injured Cubs ace Cade Horton, Assad got 17 outs, issued two walks and allowed Simpson to collect that one infield single. With slightly better luck—or if the Cubs had played things more traditionally, with Dansby Swanson covering second with a left-handed batter at the plate—he could easily have gotten through at least six innings without giving up a knock. That's how good he was.

Assad only struck out three Rays batters, and the Rays are a team prone to a fair number of whiffs, so don't get ahead of yourself. However, in addition to showing great command of his sinker and feeling out the whole seven-pitch mix that makes him effective in multiple roles, Assad broke out something especially intriguing Tuesday night: a better changeup.

Though I can't fully confirm this, it sure looks like Assad has gone to more of a kick-change, after being a standard-issue circle-change guy in the past. The pitch has about two inches more depth than it did in the past, despite being slightly firmer. He throws it with similar initial spin to his fastball, but it deflects more than it used to from that flight plan. This wasn't an anomaly born of pitching in the dome at Tropicana Field, either. He's shown this pitch and its movement profile all spring, including during his stint with Triple-A Iowa. He just got a chance to put it on full display Tuesday.

A changeup that good would be a difference-maker for Assad. He's an adroit, fascinating pitcher who manages contact by surprising opposing batters constantly, but he's never really had an out pitch against hitters on either side. If the changeup can develop into that caliber of a weapon—especially given the way he leans on a sinker, which isn't a pitch you want to feature too heavily against opposite-handed batters. A changeup with enough separation from the sinker to miss bats would be huge for him; it could make his mysterious brand of success more conventional and sustainable.

Though Statcast erroneously tagged them all as cutters, Assad also showed feel for his cutter-slider slurry Tuesday. He has both of those pitches, at this point, taking a bit off to achieve more movement at sometimes and speeding it up to get in on the hands of a lefty or freeze a righty sitting on his sinker. He's become a true seven-pitch guy.

His sweeper and curveball are virtually show-me pitches, forcing hitters to cover a wider velocity band and a larger hitting zone but rarely serving as out pitches. He'll try to use his sinker, cutter and four-seamer to get most of his big outs, but bringing along the changeup could turn him into a reliable mid-rotation stud. Unexpectedly, the Cubs need that kind of step forward from him pretty badly. Therefore, while it was just the first step of a long journey, Tuesday felt like movement in the right direction.

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[Arlen]

Good. Don't break your arm too, Javier.