Cubs Are Likely to Be Without Matthew Boyd for 6 Weeks or More, as Trouble Mounts

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Cubs fans everywhere are spending their Mondays with a weekend-long case of the Sunday scaries that won't go away. Cade Horton walked off the mound Friday in the second inning, with what has been dubbed a forearm strain—but until the team reveals the results of the imaging Horton underwent Monday morning, the specter of that preliminary diagnosis being upgraded to a torn ulnar collateral ligament and a prescription for season-ending elbow surgery hangs grayer and gloomier over the team than the roof of Tropicana Field will throughout the next few days.

To add injury to injury, the team placed left-handed starter and Opening Day assignee Matthew Boyd on the injured list Monday, with a biceps strain. Those are less likely to turn into season-ending tsuris than what Horton is dealing with, and there's no indication that the team is worried about the structural integrity of Boyd's arm. On the other hand, though, this is no minor malady. Over the last 10 seasons, biceps strains suffered during the season (eliminating those so late in the year that there were few games less to miss and those to a pitcher's non-throwing arm) have usually led to an absence of a month or more.

Boyd, 35, has a long injury history and has missed long stretches during the last several seasons, so he's not a good candidate to come back on a faster-than-average timeline. Unfortunately, the Cubs should brace for at least six weeks without the starter who gave them nearly 180 innings of stellar work in 2025.

Anticipating some of this trouble, the team retained Colin Rea and Shota Imanaga this winter. They also traded for Edward Cabrera, a pitcher one tier better in terms of stuff and ceiling than Rea or Imanaga, which cushions the blow of losing both Horton and Boyd at this early stage a bit. Rea and Javier Assad now step into the starting rotation, and each is likely to be there for at least a month, because that's about as soon as we're likely to see either Horton or Boyd. It's just as likely that only one of the two is back before, say, June.

Rea and Assad are better depth options than many teams have, in the event of such a double-whammy. However, tapping both to join the rotation this early was miles from the planned route through the 162-game gauntlet. Rea's move to starting thins out the team's bullpen. Assad's arrival in the majors leaves only Jaxon Wiggins as a starter in Iowa about whom anyone might feel excited, and he comes with huge question marks. That's not to mention the even more daunting concern: that Horton and Boyd were the members of the initial quintet about whom one might typically have had the least worry a few weeks ago. 

Jameson Taillon suffered multiple injuries last year. His arm's odometer shows a higher number than anyone else on the staff, and non-arm injuries are an ever-present threat at this stage of his career. Imanaga wasn't the same pitcher after suffering a hamstring strain last May, and statistically, pitchers who suffer a hamstring strain are about 25% likely to suffer another. Cabrera's health history is perhaps the biggest reason he was available to the Cubs this winter, via trade.

Ben Brown is still in the bullpen, and could be called upon if and when the team needs to plug yet another hole in its rotation. Justin Steele is on track to return some time around Memorial Day, barring a setback. The Cubs are in real jeopardy now, though. They've spotted the deeper Brewers three games in the NL Central, and Milwaukee has won those games despite dealing with injury issues of their own. More losses almost certainly lie ahead for Chicago, and their patchwork rotation has to support an offense that hasn't found its groove through the first nine games.

Lucas Giolito remains available in free agency. Consider the Cubs a prime candidate to sign him, if he's healthy and can ramp up quickly this spring. That's an expensive and high-risk solution to a problem the team didn't want to be dealing with, though—so it might have to wait. Unhappily, it feels increasingly likely that the moment will come when they need to make some form of semi-desperate addition, be it Giolito or a trade acquisition. Boyd and Horton are a brutal first two dominoes to fall in the rotation, not least because they won't be the last.

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[17 Seconds]

the cubs already said it was expected to a be a short stay, not 6 weeks

[Clark_Addison]

So missing 2 starts or 6 weeks…..do you have any info or just making it up as you go.