It's Time for the Cubs to Win the NL Central

[RavenCub30]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Featuring their most complete roster since the end of the Theo Epstein/Joe Maddon era, the Chicago Cubs enter the 2026 campaign with aspirations of their first full-season division title since 2017. Standing in their way are the scrappy, overachieving, endlessly capable Milwaukee Brewers. Though Pat Murphy's club has given the nation a heart-warming underdog story for the past couple of seasons, Craig Counsell's crew is poised to retake the crown. 

Whether it be the dangerously frigid temperatures or the garden-variety anticipation of a new campaign, people are ready for baseball. The 2025 season earned the Chicago Cubs partial credit, as they made a satisfying return to the playoffs, but their steady climb to the top of the NL Central is not complete. As it has been for some time now, the NL Central figures to be a two-team race between the Cubs and Brewers. 

I can't stand preseason predictions. They're often too negative, overemphasize conceptual team alignments, and provide unnecessary bulletin board material for slighted squads. It's the fuel on which teams like Milwaukee thrive, as overzealous North Side fans look askance at their Wisconsin neighbors for dealing Freddy Peralta, their former ace, to the New York Mets. The Crew has emerged from similar deals unscathed and with a handsome haul of talent, as seen when they sent Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles, but it's a lot of needle-threading.

The big question, this year, will be whether the Cubs can finally punish Milwaukee's long-term focus with some short-term pain. That will depend on their pitching staff. Despite the loss of Brad Keller to the Phillies, the Cubs' bullpen sports a diverse array of established relievers and former starters. They restocked with low-level moves in the relief corps, and took a risk by trading top prospects for starter Edward Cabrera.

Chicago continues to undergo a series of changes in the outfield. While we know that Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong will keep patrol left and center field, right field will take on a different look without Owen Caissie or Kyle Tucker. In all likelihood, Seiya Suzuki, who made incremental improvements there, will get the lion's share of the time out there. Failing that, there are some intriguing fallback plans, as we've discussed here throughout the week.

By enduring persistent shortcomings, missteps, and misfortunes, the Cubs have obtained one more weapon in their quest to seize the division championship in 2026: failure. In baseball, failure is the best teacher. In the past three campaigns alone, the North Siders missed the postseason by two agonizingly slim margins and limped into a postseason berth that left the faithful wanting more. But the muscle memory that pain created, paired with the unified talent this squad possesses, makes it fearsome. They're in a good enough spot to win the division this time around—so they'd better do so.

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[Banks-Williams]

The Cubs didn’t have Willi Castro until too late in the 2025 season.  The net result was tired ball players in the July and August sun.  Counsell played the regulars each game, causing a slump just when the Brewers got hot.  By the time the weather cooled and Castro came in to assist, it was too late; the damage had been done.  
 

The Cubs thus ended up in the wild card round, and Counsell doubled down on his mistakes, pitching Boyd on only 3 days rest instead of Assad on 5 days rest against the Brewers.  Assad had demonstrated better pitching than Boyd at the end of the season, but Counsell didn”t notice: he took Assad off the roster!  The Cubs lost game one — Boyd was destroyed in the early innings.

Counsell then went double or nothing yet again, tripling down on his mistakes: he pitched Imanaga as the starter in game 2 even though Imanaga was a league leader in giving up home runs and doubles.  He kept the trend going.  The Cubs got clobbered yet again and couldn’t recover.  Season was over.  Counsell did a 1969 Durocher.

Lesson learned??  Rotate your players in July and August, and keep your eye out for tired ones throughout the season.  Do not spend time worrying about your hair color or giving media interviews.  Watch your players closely Mr. Counsell.  And get someone like Brendan Donovan on the roster now that Castro is gone  

 

Edited February 4 by Banks-Williams