Cubs Lost the Division Title (and Eventually, the Division Series) on the Margins

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

 

By most measures, the Chicago Cubs had a successful season. Any season that results in 92 wins and a Wild Card victory can be considered a job well done. But this specific season, this postseason and the way it all played out, feels unsatisfying. The issue was the front office and manager, and the losses on the margins that felt as though they might have been avoided, or mitigated.

In the end, it feels maddeningly as though the Cubs' goal wasn't a championship. Their goal, instead, was to keep the front office employed.

Mistake 1: The Cody Bellinger Debacle
After being dealt to the New York Yankees for soon-to-be waiver bait Cody Poteet, Cody Bellinger went on to hit .279 with 29 home runs and 98 RBIs. This was good, overall, for a wRC+ of 125, far above average and an improvement from his 2024 season of 109. Health played a factor in this; he avoided major injury in New York. 

Letting a good player go for monetary reasons is something a major market team that sells out every game and has their own TV network should never have to do. Aside from general rest days across the outfield and first base that Bellinger could have provided, here's a list of other times the left-handed power bat would have helped:

1. Kyle Tucker could have rested for a few weeks when he was injured
2. Bellinger was the guy that would have taken Justin Turner's at bats vs. left-handed pitching at first base.
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong would have had more opportunity to rest, recharge, learn, and avoid left-handed pitching, if needed.
4. Ian Happ could have been sat down in the playoffs, instead of having three hits and a .190 OBP in the Cubs' eight playoff games.

Losing Bellinger forced the Cubs into playing their position players more than they would have preferred. The late-season offensive inconsistency was at least partially due to mental and physical fatigue. Since they cut the return in the trade before the season and still were $30 million below the luxury tax, Bellinger staying would have been much more helpful than what they did with the money saved—except for the Ricketts family, who had an extra $30 million in their coffers during their never-ending quest to break even financially.

Granted, Bellinger landed in the perfect location for his skill set and would not have replicated his numbers in Wrigley. He was also expensive, and in theory, that money would have been repurposed. They did not do so, and the bench was an issue for the entire season. 

Obviously, it's not that simple. Once the team committed to bringing in Tucker, they didn't have an everyday role for Bellinger, and he would have been very unhappy as a part-time player, even if there should theoretically have been lots of ways for him to find playing time. The Cubs (rightfully) didn't really trust him to play center field anymore. One of Bellinger, Happ and Seiya Suzuki had to go, lest they create a major clubhouse issue, and Happ and Suzuki had no-trade clauses. They absolutely needed Bellinger-like offensive production; they just kind of cornered themselves into losing Bellinger himself, and failed to replace him adequately.

Mistake 2: At some point, they had to add reliable innings.
This could have been in the offseason, after Bellinger's money was shed. This could have been early on, when Justin Steele's elbow finally gave out. The trade deadline seems like it could have been a good time to do so, especially given their estimated payroll was far short of the luxury tax threshold. This one feels like penny-pinching.

It was clear as the Division Series moved on that Craig Counsell had no trust in any starting pitching option besides Matthew Boyd (whom he arguably had too much trust in, starting him on short rest). But it's not really about the playoffs. Cade Horton, Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Shota Imanaga were a good enough starting rotation to advance past the Brewers. Unfortunately, Imanaga was not the same pitcher after his hamstring injury. Horton had a non-pitching-related rib injury, but if he were that sick to cough enough to break a rib, clearly some rest was needed. (If he hurt it any other way, well, that's a separate issue.) Boyd was forced to go on short rest in Game 1 despite blowing past his innings total from the past four years at age 35.

You may read these above points as bad luck, but they were predictable results. Steele's injury felt like an inevitability after two seasons interrupted by elbow injuries, and perversely, the team was too reliant on their pitchers to hold up. Nobody should have expected Boyd to pitch nearly 180 innings. Horton, despite keeping his pitch count down, predictably went down. The Cubs had to anticipate these guys wouldn't be available, and they just didn't—or else, they thought they'd be ok without them, which was also unreasonable. 

The Cubs had to get someone during the season who would have allowed more rest for the starters. Not having Horton and Imanaga at full strength was the deciding factor in the Brewers series. Whether it was money or prospect cost, the Cubs failed to support their solid pitching staff enough.

Mistake 3: The Kyle Tucker Situation
When it's all said and done, obtaining Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski feels like a deal that was designed to get Jed Hoyer an extension. Look at how this will now play out.

• Kyle Tucker leaves as a free agent.
• Suzuki goes to right field again for a year, until his contract expires.
• Owen Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcántara battle for the Tucker at-bats.

Now, the Cubs are looking at an offseason where they need a star bat, an elite starter, and an entire bullpen. This is the exact situation they were in last offseason. They spent elite prospect capital, in Smith (although it's not yet clear whether his talent will survive the abuse of being rushed to the big leagues; he was a Matt Shaw-first-half or Pete Crow-Armstrong-second-half level of awful after the break, without the defensive value) and a serviceable third baseman for one year of a player who has already wished his teammates the best of luck. The team had steadily built toward this kind of pedal-down move over the last two seasons, and it was time for it, but it's becoming clear how much it swapped the future for the present.

Of course, Smith was clearly not ready to help this season, and the Cubs' recent track record in player development casts doubt on what they'd have gotten from him even in the long term. Isaac Paredes didn't fit New Wrigley and its constant wind-blowing-in home run suppression. Wesneski succumbed to Tommy John surgery. The book is still to be written on the Astros' return. Unfortunately for the Cubs, it seems like their portion is already written, and has been submitted to the editor. Even if Smith ends up a bust, the book for the Cubs will not be a best-selling blockbuster with movie rights attached. 

Smith, Paredes and Wesneski need not be the Cubs' business. But Tucker himself didn't produce enough, at the right times, to make the trade worthwhile. He proved unable to play well through injuries, and unable to avoid them, too. The Cubs have a ton of work to do to make the playoffs in 2026 and in the future. Replacing Tucker's production is job number one if they want the playoffs to be an annual thing, not just a one-off.

The Tucker trade masked the lack of development that the Cubs have had in the system. Their minors are now ranked in the bottom half of the league; their assets after 2026 are ranked 19th by ESPN for future value. Trading Smith, who arguably has the most upside of any of them, was a risky move. For a team that is supposed to be future-focused, breaking their process for this was jarring. (Maybe it would have been less so, if Tucker had played just a bit better, especially after the break.)

Ah, now that was therapeutic! It's time now to relax, enjoy the rest of the postseason and watch some Chicago Bulls and Bears action this winter. Given all the research about people and their lack of sports diversification, this is the healthy thing to do. We'll keep you posted, here at North Side Baseball, on the offseason happenings.

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Thanks for reading all season long. It's truly a privilege that so many people still read and choose to read my articles. Thanks again!

 

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