If Cubs Stretch Out Shota Imanaga Monday Night, Here's How They'll Do It

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Game 2 of the National League Division Series is a crucial matchup for the Chicago Cubs. Lose this one, and the squad will have to rattle off three consecutive wins. But if it results in a win, the Cubs can fly high into Wrigley in a best-of-three situation. Longtime Cubs fans will remember Ted Lilly in 2007, slamming his glove in frustration after giving up a home run in the process of going down 2-0 to the lousy Diamondbacks. Chicago would be swept in that Division Series, and the next year's team met the same fate, at the hands of the Dodgers. A win in this game means a series; a loss means the season is likely over. 

Game 2 in Milwaukee will hinge on the starting pitching. Shota Imanaga can have a short outing, and the team can still be successful. He absolutely cannot go off of the rails completely, though, like Matthew Boyd did in Game 1. If Imanaga gives up multiple runs in the early going, the Cubs' plan (and their season) will have been derailed. But let's think positive. Here's what it might look like if, in contrast with the bullpen-style plan Matthew Trueblood put forth earlier today, Imanaga works deeper into the contest.

Shota Imanaga
As the starter, he will not pitch to more than 18 batters, which is twice through the order. It's likely he will be pulled at the first signs of struggle or hard contact, but perhaps that eventuality can be warded off until the middle innings. Imanaga did face the Brewers three times this season, posting a 3.57 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and three home runs allowed.

Concern over the starting pitcher is warranted; he's struggled of late and the Brewers' 108 WRC+ against lefties is eighth in the league. His second half was unimpressive, with a 4.76 ERA. In September, it ballooned to 6.51. The Brewers aren't a home run-hitting juggernaut, though, and if he can maintain his control, the dingers can be held in check. Imanaga's velocity readings were up on all pitches against the Padres; maybe he can relax and give enough length to get to the later innings relievers. Counsell likely only would ask for five innings from him.

The Craig Counsell Circle of Trust

• Colin Rea: Long relief (Aaron Civale pitched four innings and is likely out, Ben Brown and Mike Soroka's struggles rule them out of a close game). If Imanaga can't go five innings, look for Rea to cover the rest of those frames. If things go right, though, he could be withheld for work in Game 3.
• Daniel Palencia: The fire-balling reliever was a multi-inning guy in the Wild Card Series. He didn't allow a run, and held his velocity as he pitched. The off day on Tuesday means he can pitch, rest, and recover for the Wednesday night Wrigley tilt.
• Caleb Thielbar: Comes in to face tough left-handed hitting. If it's a dirty inning, he's the cleanup guy. You need to get through the sixth with some combination of Imanaga, Palencia and Thielbar, to set up the set-up men.
• Drew Pomeranz/Andrew Kittredge: They get the seventh and eighth inning; the order depends on the left-handed hitters coming up. Pomeranz has great splits when he enjoys the platoon edge this season.
• Brad Keller: Ninth inning guy. He struggled in a multi-inning stint in Game 3, so likely only a one-inning reliever at this point.

The Cubs' risky move to start Matthew Boyd on short rest in Game 1 of the Division Series backfired. Fans are understandably worried about Monday night's game; the above plan gives them their best setup for success. Imanaga has been this team's lion for the last two years; they need him to roar again in Game 2.

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