A Comprehensive Chicago Cubs Wild Card Series Starting Rotation Plan

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Craig Counsell was hired for this. Eight million dollars should buy a great strategist for the playoffs. Luckily for Counsell, though, he doesn't have to put that massive brain to work right now. He can just read this article, set his pitching lineups, and go puff a victory cigar. Here is the Cubs' optimal pitching plan for the Wild Card Series.

Game 1: Shota Imanaga
The Padres have a number of left-handed bats in the lineup. Two of them, Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill, have greater than 50-point drops in their on-base percentage against left-handed pitching this year. Gavin Sheets and Ryan O'Hearn also hit left-handed, and while they have been fairly split-neutral this season, historically, they struggle against same-handed pitching. Even ultra-talented right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is less effective against southpaws: his batting average drops 55 points, and his slugging craters down to .344. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, although dangerous bats, are not lefty mashers. It makes sense to weaken the Padres from the start.

Imanaga is the most likely Cubs starter to go deep into a game, which is important with a three-game set. A short series is always a challenge for a staff. Imanaga has averaged almost six innings per start. More importantly, only once has he failed to go five innings (two, if you count the Tokyo game). This stability will give Counsell more options in the later games, as you will see.

After Imanaga tires, the short relievers can take over. Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz can handle lefty-heavy parts of the lineup, Brad Keller can take the toughest stretch in the later innings, and Andrew Kittredge can act as the nominal closer. The bulk relievers would be fresh for the next game or two.

Game 2: Cade Horton
Everyone knows he's been good. No—he's been better. With a 1.03 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over his last 12 starts, Horton is giving 2015 Jake Arrieta vibes. His duel with Paul Skenes on September 16 was electric; he's clearly not fazed by the spotlight. So why not use him in the first game?

It's the uncertainty. Not performance, although his metrics don't support this level of performance. It's the stamina portion. Since August began, Horton has averaged 74 pitches thrown per game—and that's if you throw out his truncated appearance Tuesday. His maximum in this time is 87, and the minimum is 61 (or 29, now). 

We're also in uncharted territory for innings pitched in Horton's career. Due to injuries and extremely careful pitch count monitoring, he's at a career high 118 innings pitched in 23 games, an average barely over 5 per start. Playoff baseball is also a step up in intensity; nobody really knows how the rookie will respond. 

The Cubs should be confident in this start, but cautious, as well. For this reason, Colin Rea should be warmed and ready to come in at early signs of fatigue or struggle. If this happens earlier than expected—say, the third inning—Rea could pitch several innings. While he has been primarily a starter in his career, in 62 relief innings, Rea has an outstanding 2.32 ERA. Ideally, Horton would nail down five hitless innings, but Rea gives that buffer. If Horton and Rea get through the sixth inning, the Keller/Pomeranz/Thielbar/Kittredge combo should be able to piece together nine more outs. 

The strategy changes some based on the Game 1 outcome. If the Cubs lose that, it's an all-hands-on-deck situation in Game 2. In that case, you would cycle through shorter-inning relievers faster, hoping to cobble together scoreless frames that way. Michael Soroka would be instrumental there, for example. 

If one of the first two games is a blowout, Aaron Civale or Javier Assad would be available to soak up those innings and save the higher-leverage pitchers for game 3. Speaking of.........

Game 3: Matthew Boyd
No, Boyd has not finished the season in the All-Star form he began it in. His ERA is an unsightly 4.74 in the second half. The aforementioned left-handedness should get him the nod in Game 3, though. Jameson Taillon would pitch in an emergency situation—unless Daniel Palencia is there for his spot, adding another electric arm to the late innings. 

This would be a short outing for Boyd, only two times through the order at most, and less if the stuff isn't sharp. The Cubs will have six short relievers to finish the game off. A rough sketch:

• Boyd: 9-12 batters, 3-4 innings
• Civale/Assad: 1-2 innings, bridge to the back of the bullpen

OR

• Boyd: early departure
• Taillon: gets into the sixth inning

Here's a predicted list of pitchers for the postseason roster, and their roles.

• Starters: Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd
• Short Relievers: Andrew Kittredge, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka
• Long Relief: Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon
• Health Wild Cards: Daniel Palencia, Soroka, Aaron Civale
• Stay Away: Ben Brown, Porter Hodge.

It's been Counsell's strength as a manager this season: managing the pitching staff. From navigating Justin Steele's elbow injury to avoiding overuse of relief arms, this area has been Counsell's biggest source of obvious value to the team. He'll be tested this October, but should be ready for the challenge. It's then up to the arms on the roster to produce.

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