Who Will Close for the Cubs, With Daniel Palencia Down?

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Daniel Palencia, newly minted Closer With Entrance Music™️, left Sunday's loss to the Nationals with what has been diagnosed as a posterior scapular strain in his throwing shoulder. The Cubs will be forced to scramble to fill bullpen roles in the last month of the season and (in all likelihood) the postseason. What will they do to patch the hole?

Strains in the area where Palencia suffered his generally require weeks to heal, followed by ramp-up and rehab. If you remove injuries like this one that happened in September (to avoid the bad data of players whose time missed was artificially curtailed by the end of the season), the average return time is roughly 10 weeks, and the median is eight weeks. Game 7 of the 2025 World Series is just under eight weeks from now; Palencia's season is almost certainly over.

Palencia has been struggling since August, when his ERA hit its lowest mark of 1.36 and he was maintaining a .174 batting average against. Since then, his ERA has been 8.74 ,with a .377 batting average against; it's fair to wonder if this has been an issue since then. Craig Counsell also alluded to a previous shoulder ailment that wasn't a "big deal," but it's become a big deal this time.

The Cubs do have options, but it will require a shuffling of roles. 

BRAD KELLER
Keller has been a complete revelation this season, but really found his groove in August. Since August 1, he's struck out 20 of the 55 batters he's faced; allowed just nine baserunners; and given up no earned runs. He doesn'tt have concerning split numbers (.451 OPS vs. right-handed bats, .576 vs. left-handed ones). He's been the relief ace who doesn't pitch in the ninth inning, allowing Counsell to utilize him in the highest-leverage situations. It would be a fitting decision to slot him as closer, but understandable if they utilize him in the role in which he's excelled all season.

ANDREW KITTREDGE
At 34, Kittredge has never filled a full-time closer role, but that doesn't mean he's incapable of it. He does have wipeout stuff, as evidenced by 18 strikeouts in his 14 innings as a Cub. Home runs have led to his two poor outings, leading to a blown save (which the Cubs eventually won on August 22 vs. the Angels) and a complete meltdown on August 5 vs. the Reds. Besides these, he's been a solid reliever. He has tallied two saves on the team, as well. Paired with his high-leverage usage, six holds and an extra-innings win last week, the case could be made that Counsell will trust him first to man the ninth.

CALEB THIELBAR
Thielbar's performance would merit a look in the later innings. A 2.12 ERA with a WHIP of 0.82 plays in any inning, especially the ninth. Thielbar is a lefty, though, and has allowed only a .132 batting average to lefty batters. The Cubs will continue to deploy him as their lefty destroyer, giving them flexibility in the earlier innings.

JAVIER ASSAD
This won't happen, but remember those games in the World Baseball Classic? Assad was used as a reliever, and was electric in his short bursts, hitting 97 and fist pumping his way around the mound. As the cool kids say, he had aura. It's unlikely—they'll need bulk innings from him—but it would be a fun option.

JAXON WIGGINS 
Brett Taylor at Bleacher Nation wrote on this possibility, and it is interesting, but terrifying. The Athletic reported that Counsell watched Wiggins's last start in Iowa. Wiggins debuted this season in High A, and has made it to the Triple-A level. He's a top-100 prospect who would routinely hit 100 miles per hour with his heater out of the pen. There are some famous, recent examples of top prospects coming and helping in playoff runs:

• 2002 Francisco Rodriguez: 5 IP in regular season, 18.2 in playoffs as the Angels won the World Series
• 2008 David Price: 14 IP in regular season, pitched in 5 of the Rays' wins in their postseason run

Wiggins would be fun, exciting, and extremely risky. Given the caution used in playing time for youngsters like Owen Caissie and Moisés Ballesteros, this would be a Hail Mary move from an organization that typically eschews such nonsense. The reality is that the team will probably just backfill with one of their returning, injured starter types (Jameson Taillon and/or Michael Soroka) and shove everyone up the bullpen ladder one rung, without Palencia.

It's a huge bummer to think about, but baseball can be a series of bummers. The Cubs are blessed with a great bullpen. No team wants this type of disruption, but the Cubs are well suited to handle it.

Expect Kittredge to get the first crack at the ninth, with Keller waiting in the wings and Thielbar as the matchup weapon. Losing Palencia stings, but this bullpen is built to survive September turbulence. We can all hope that it further solidifies the Cubs' ability to perform under suboptimal circumstances.

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[Arlen]

Why shouldn't the best reliever on the team come to the mound in the 7th inning, when his team has a 1 run lead and there are two baserunners on the opponent's team?  "Closer" looks like one of those odd old baseball habits that should be broken.