Can Chicago Cubs Survive Without Their Top Two Arms?

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Sunday afternoon, Shota Imanaga exited his start with a hamstring injury that could sideline him for about a month. Coupling this with Justin Steele's season-ending elbow surgery, stress has entered Cubs fans' hearts. There is no sugarcoating the news. It's a bad thing for any team to lose their top two pitchers at any time. The Cubs, though, may have constructed a team that can withstand it. Here are the necessary components to survive and thrive as a team during this challenging time.

Component 1: Matthew Boyd must stay on the mound.
A quick Google search can show the opinion on Matthew Boyd's signing, and this author agreed with many of them in thinking it was not a stellar move. He's done nothing but prove people wrong. Boyd can pitch. Despite a BABIP (.324)-influenced WHIP of 1.35, he's been outperforming projections to this point.

What Boyd really needs to do is stay healthy and keep making his starts until Imanaga returns. Durability has not been a strong suit for Boyd, averaging only eight starts per season since 2021. It would be a wonderful thing for the Cubs if Boyd could continue pitching—and a necessary one, to maintain their position atop the NL Central. He's already gaining attention nationally as a great under-the-radar signing.

Component 2: Colin Rea must prove this isn't a fluke.
Tuesday night's outing against the Giants was rough. Before it, though, Rea's ERA was a gaudy 1.46, and his FIP was 2.50. What Rea has done is put his outstanding defense to work and avoid hard contact. He's controlling the variables that he can control.

Rea does have a higher fly-ball rate than average, but the quality of contact has not been high. He doesn't strike out as many hitters as one might hope, but he's a control artist, with a walk rate of 5.7% this season and a 6.0% clip last year with Milwaukee.

While his numbers are due for a dip when the weather warms up, Rea does have a history of durability. He started 27 games in 2024 and 22 the year before, pitching in key moments for a division champion. If he can simply replicate his performance this season, it would go a long way to solidifying the Cubs rotation.

Component Number 3: Ben Brown needs to pitch like his team scored 10 runs.
When Brown is loose and confident, he's getting ahead of hitters on the first pitch. A loose and confident Brown can pitch against any lineup, as evidenced by scoreless outings against the Dodgers and Brewers. When his command is off, he has had non-competitive starts. Brown needs to trust his stuff and let it work. 

Component Number 4: Let's give Cade Horton a test run.
It's already being reported and speculated and questioned and pontificated that Horton would get a weekend start and short runway. He's the arm in the system with the highest potential for success. Over 29 innings in Iowa, he has 33 strikeouts, a 0.86 WHIP, and 1.24 ERA. The 13 walks are a concern, but when you have only allowed 12 hits, they don't look quite so worrisome. Triple-A hitters have only put the ball in play on 11.3% of their swings; Cade is overwhelming them. He's also throwing 80 pitches per game. The only thing left for him is to learn how to do this in the major leagues.

Oh, and the health. Most Cubs fans know about the wasted season in 2024, due to a shoulder issue. Given the numbers and the fact that his heater has touched 98 mph this spring, it's reasonable to assume that he's healthy now. The arm is needed, and the bullets do not need to be spent toiling in Iowa. Horton's health is solid at the moment; it's time to see what he can do. The worst-case scenario is a couple of poor starts and a return to Iowa to apply those lessons. 

Component Number 5: Keep mashing and fielding.
When scoring five or more runs last season, the Cubs were 61-12. With this offensive output, the Cubs should be able to roll out any cromulent arm and contend. Couple that with the league's second-best defensive team by Defensive Runs Saved, and the Cubs have strong points. They should be able to maintain them, and support even a diminished pitching staff.

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The Cubs should be just fine if they can do these realistic things. Did I miss anything? Any "constructive criticism?" Put it in the comments!

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