It's Time for More Michael Busch Against Left-Handed Pitching

[RandallPnkFloyd]

If you've got a legitimate starter at a position, shouldn't he get an unfettered opportunity? 

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs have a full-time first baseman on their roster. It's inarguable. Are there better ones? Sure. But the Cubs know what it looks like to not have one. Michael Busch is one. That's why Craig Counsell's approach to the lineup to start the year has been a bit perplexing.

Busch earned the team's trust last year. He posted a 119 wRC+ and hit 21 home runs; his defense also improved dramatically as the season progressed. By fWAR, he was the ninth-best first baseman among 25 qualifers (2.3). Had it not been for the typical rookie ebb and flow, he might've landed higher, especially as the defense got better. But the upside in the bat was evident from the start.

Not unlike this year, Busch got off to a strong offensive start in 2024. He posted a 130 wRC+ in the first month of the year, along with a .234 ISO. It didn't entirely hold up wire-to-wire, but Busch was able to reach the end as a more mature hitter in terms of approach. He even rediscovered his power in September (.243 ISO). His strikeout rate fell each month from May onward, bottoming out (in a good way) with a 20.9 K% in September. 

From Busch, we expected growth and got it. The gradual improvement of the approach and comfort on the defensive side left zero questions at first ahead of 2025, and the excitement only rose as he had a scorching spring. March and April have only brought more success in each regard, as the wRC+ sits at an astronomical 162. His ISO is a terrific .284, and he's only striking out 24.0% of the time. Despite that latter stat, Busch is demonstrating more patience. His swing rate is down (42.1%), as well as his chase rate (22.1%). 

While the sustainability of his start can be reasonably fairly questioned, the profile really can't be. We know what he is and now it's a matter of fine-tuning. Interestingly, though, the Cubs deployed him in a bit different a fashion throughout his rookie campaign versus what we've seen so far in 2025.

Unlike 2024, Craig Counsell has chosen to shield Busch almost entirely from left-handed pitching. Busch has only seven plate appearances against southpaws; he has 68 against righties. He's struck out three times and walked once against same-handed hurlers, with a wRC+ of 82. 

Instead, Counsell has chosen to roll heavily with Justin Turner against lefties. In fact, we've openly wondered if this is a platoon situation. Seiya Suzuki's injury could press Turner into more regular DH duty, but that's been the trend on both the pinch-hitting and starting fronts. Turner has 16 plate appearances against left-handed arms, with three hits and three walks to speak of. The numbers are fine on their own, but they're also low-impact. Meanwhile, Busch hasn't proved completely inept against lefties in his own right.

Of the 165 plate appearances taken by Cubs first basemen against lefties last year, Busch had 94. He totaled 100 encounters with them, sprinkling in pinch-hit and DH chances. He hit .258 therein, with a 103 wRC+ and .124 ISO. His strikeout rate was 25%, which is harder to work around when one hits for below-average power, but he accepted enough walks to be a viable producer.

Nonetheless, this spring, Counsell has reduced Busch's exposure to southpaws in favor of the newcoming Turner. The slugging vet has been fine, but it's not as if he's some vaunted lefty masher. He's fairly split-neutral for his career (125 wRC+ vs. LHP, 126 vs. RHP). Obviously, that production against lefties is still much better than what Busch produced last year. Over the last three years, Turner has also become a bit more of a splits guy. He's batted .285/.379/.449 in 372 plate appearances off them since this date in 2022, so it's very reasonable for Counsell to expect more from him than from Busch with a lefty on the mound.

On the other hand, Turner is 40, and Busch should be the medium-term future at first base for this team. If the growth we've seen is real, he should be able to handle lefties. Since there seems to be a large gap in his power production based on platoon matchup, and since this team (unlike last year's) has a trustworthy weapon to complement him, it's likely that Turner continues to take many of the plate appearances against lefties at the first base spot. Hopefully, though, the team also finds ways to keep the younger slugger involved—more so than he's been thus far, when there's a lefthander on the mound.

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