Alexander Canario is Intriguing, But Not Confidence-Inspiring, Even as a Backup

[Brian Kelder]

The Cubs have to fix their bench. Trading Cody Bellinger and allowing Mike Tauchman to walk have raised questions about the outfield depth, specifically. What is the plan for 2025 for the backup outfielder position? Can Alexander Canario adequately fill this spot?

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The starters are locked in. Kyle Tucker will man right field, Pete Crow-Armstrong patrols center, and Ian Happ will post up in left. Seiya Suzuki looms as the designated hitter and sometimes outfielder. The gamble is, what if Crow-Armstrong struggles again? Who fills in if someone is injured? 

At this point, the most likely fill-in would be Alexander Canario. As the last hope for a positive return from the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, the Cubs surely hope that he can fill in the void. (Technically, of course, Caleb Kilian is also still part of the organization. Like we said, Canario is the last hope.) Canario lacks options in 2025 and needs to be on the roster or subjected to waivers, where he would almost surely be claimed.

So what can we expect from Canario if he's on the major-league roster?  

Defensively, it's questionable how well Canario can handle the corner outfield spots, let alone center field. A horrific ankle injury and a hamstring issue last season really seem to have taken a toll on his athleticism and range. His arm will play at any position, but the range indicates that center field would be a stretch.

On offense, Canario has a profile somewhat similar to the recently jettisoned Christopher Morel. He has loud, loud tools, and when he puts it all together, the fireworks can carry an offense. Barrels and exit velocity are his game. In Iowa last season, Canario smoked the ball, with an 89.2 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. Some 9.6% of his batted balls were what Statcast considers Barrels, a markedly above-average number. This compares favorably to noted free-agent slugger Pete Alonso (89.8 EV, 46% hard hit, 8.4% barrels), though obviously, he has to prove he can make enough contact to get to the same kind of power in the majors. The aforementioned Morel averaged 92 MPH and a 50% hard-hit rate in his breakout 2023 campaign. Canario's metrics hint at that kind of power.  

Another similarity between Canario and Morel is the ability to get scorching hot for weeks at a time. Check out these two stat lines for 2 week periods.

• Jul. 7-24, 2022: 1.575 OPS, 7 home runs in 13 games
• May 14-30, 2024: 1.211 OPS, also 7 dingers in 13 games.

Clearly, Canario has some flashy skills with the bat. So what's holding him back?  

It's the whiff rate. Throughout his time in the minors, he has hovered around a 30% strikeout rate, going back to his first taste of Class-A pitching in 2019. Last season, in Iowa, he continued to strike out 30% of the time. As Ken Rosenthal examined, prospects are having a much harder time in recent years adjusting to the higher level of pitching and velocity the major leagues bring. The bat just has not made enough contact to create optimism that Canario will have an immediate impact. You have to meet the ball in order to hit it hard.

Computers don't project Canario to hit consistently in the majors. ZiPS, shown here, projects only a .206 batting average, with a .272 on-base percentage and .379 slugging average. This is a disturbing projection for a power-first bat with little defensive value.

If the Cubs go into the season with Canario on the roster, they will still have a massive hole as a backup center fielder. Canario cannot play this reliably; perhaps Happ or Tucker can fake it in case of injury, but for any long-term needs, they would have to turn to Kevin Alcántara.

The best teams have contingency plans for when things go awry, and the Cubs simply do not have an acceptable one in center field (or second base, or third base, or first base, but those are different articles), at least among those currently projected to begin the season on their roster. Canario will not be an adequate replacement offensively or defensively for a team that hopes to contend in 2025. Saving salary by dumping Cody Bellinger and not tendering a contract to Mike Tauchman will look like a big mistake if they end up relying on Canario.

Canario projects, basically, to be Patrick Wisdom off the bench, only (probably) worse. His projected WRC+ is only 92, which is unacceptable when you also factor in his negative defensive value. While he may have some fun moments, sustained production is not something his minor-league statistical profile suggests. The Cubs would be left lacking if something were to happen to a starter in the outfield, particularly if it's in center.

Canario cannot be the primary backup outfielder for the Cubs in 2025. His glove is poor (his defense, that is; I'm sure his glove itself is just fine), and the bat doesn't project to make up for it. Going into this next season with him as a safety net doesn't inspire confidence. It makes a fan less likely to walk this tightrope with the Cubs as we move forward. The team needs to keep looking for better options in that spare outfielder role.

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