The Group the 2025 Chicago Cubs Will Go to WAR With

[Brian Kelder]

Just how above-replacement are your wins, really? And just how winning is your above-replacementness?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

In a recent podcast, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic made a comment about Isaac Paredes that was quite interesting.

"He's more good at accumulating WAR than actually playing baseball," Mooney said. Is this a problem with the Cubs as a whole? Does their WAR reflect their true value on the field?

First of all, the Cubs' defense projects to be elite in 2025. No fewer than six players can confidently feel that they will be in the Gold Glove conversation: Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong should be considered favorites, and Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch are quality defenders, as well.  

Dave Szymborski tweeted his depth chart of WAR for the Cubs' position players ahead of releasing his full projections this week, and they're quite solid:

The questions are, how much are those WAR totals buoyed by defense, and is there enough offense to really make them add up? Swanson (99) and Hoerner (102) were roughly average hitters by wRC+ last year, but their elite defense raises their WAR.  Crow-Armstrong is in a similar boat; his 2.7 WAR last season was almost entirely defense-based (87 WRC+). The catcher spot, even with Carson Kelly added, should not be counted on for offense.

At this moment, the Cubs are running a risk of having their fifth-through-ninth spots in the lineup occupied by below-average bats. Matt Shaw could come in and produce, of course, and Crow-Armstrong could replicate his August and September from last season. For what it's worth, Szymborski's ZiPS projects both of them to be cromulent at the plate, with Shaw forecasted for a .247/.320/.402 line and 100 wRC+ and Crow-Armstrong slated to go .249/.302/.412, a 97 wRC+. Swanson was a different player after his stint on the DL with a knee, and his core surgery should also help. There is cause for optimism, along with any concern.

The Cubs will be an interesting test case. They have an elite bat now (in Kyle Tucker), and according to WAR, they boast a quality player in every position. The defense, as we've already discussed, could be superb.

If you are a pitching and defense fan, the Cubs will be the team for you to watch in 2025. In many games, they will have a Gold Glove winner or candidate in seven positions. The defense will accumulate WAR. Time (and the crack of their bats) will tell if this also will accumulate enough wins to make the playoffs in 2025.

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