Narrative Sifting With the 2024 Cubs: An Offensive Roller Coaster

[Brian Kelder]

This intro is going to be a little more personal. I know, it's not great writing to use the word "I." I apologize to Mr. Stanky (his real name), my English 2 teacher back in 1995. But this writer grew up a Cubs fan, has been a Cubs fan, and yet has been a terrible fan lately. I have fallen into the morass of hating and doubting everything on the North Side.

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

This affected my opinions for this past season. Some of the narratives around have been about the team's lack of star power and the lack of talent. Another one is that August didn't really matter, because it was garbage time. As something of an analyst, instead of seeing these narratives and rolling with them, I decided to go back and see what really happened in 2024, and what can be done to fix it in 2025.

Narrative Number 1:  The Offense was built to fail
August was a superb month for the Cubs. An 18-8 record, season high team OPS of .792, and 37 home runs (9 more than any other month) led to a surge in the standings. When you look at the other months, though, it was not as much fun.

2		Cubs	April	17-10	.630	27	17	10	894	135	214	38	7	28	126	92	11	237	9	7	1,009	350	73	2	10	3	15	.239	.315	.391	.706
3		Cubs	May	10-18	.357	28	10	18	928	99	201	38	3	26	93	96	17	249	27	4	1,052	323	67	2	9	3	12	.217	.299	.348	.647
4		Cubs	June	11-16	.407	27	11	16	887	99	203	36	4	26	92	96	17	252	36	5	1,005	325	66	4	1	2	17	.229	.316	.366	.682
5		Cubs	July	13-12	.520	25	13	12	858	110	216	53	2	26	107	66	8	200	18	3	941	351	81	3	6	2	9	.252	.309	.409	.718
6		Cubs	August	18-8	.692	26	18	8	891	155	232	52	7	37	147	91	9	200	36	5	1,001	409	96	3	7	5	8	.260	.333	.459	.792
7		Cubs	September	13-13	.500	26	13	13	882	124	229	31	5	25	118	89	6	202	17	6	987	345	61	3	7	2	23	.260	.329	.391	.720

As you can see, the team cratered offensively in May and June.  Why did a team with the same veteran players perform so much differently?  Just look at the IL:

• Cody Bellinger:  ribs
• Seiya Suzuki:  slow month returning from oblique
• Nico Hoerner:  hit in hand in June, did not miss time but .135 OPS difference from first half to second
• Dansby Swanson:  played through a knee injury, obviously affected at the plate.
• Christopher Morel:  batting cleanup despite below hitting .200 for May and June
• Catcher Position:  vortex of doom, black hole sucking our hopes and dreams

That's six positions in the lineup at the same time either injured, recovering from injury, or lying to training staff members about their knee, and all of them slumping at the same time. Replacements included the rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Patrick Wisdom, none of whom impacted the team positively on offense.

There are very few teams that can withstand six key players injured over the same time period, unless you happen to employ Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts or something. The Cubs were designed to have a team full of net positives in their lineup;  this type of sequencing with injuries was not able to be withstood. When you factor in a lack of quality depth on the bench, the offense sputtered.

Narrative 2:  The Cubs surged in garbage time baseball.
So what happened in August?  Well, a few things happened, also simultaneously.

1. Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya had great months, lengthening the lineup to a full nine solid hitters. PCA, especially, played at a star level (.933 OPS, four home runs) and in fantasy baseball circles garnered top-40 draft pick buzz. Amaya was no slouch, either. His .924 OPS was a welcome boon in the nine spot in the lineup. Both of these players have the prospect pedigree to support this being part of a breakout, and the performance for a month was legitimate (even if Amaya scuffled in September.)
2. Health: All of the aforementioned bats were healthy and producing in the month of August. Really not much analysis needed here, either. The good players on the team were all playing and performing well at the same time. Swanson, Hoerner, and Suzuki were especially effective when compared to their May/June numbers.
3. Third base was such a damaging position, and Craig Counsell did the lineup no favors by sticking with Christopher Morel in the cleanup spot for so long. Isaac Paredes was no superstar when he came over, but he did bring one much needed addition. Paredes was the league leader in pitches per plate appearance with 4.45. This elite plate approach, while it didn't result in counting numbers, did help the lineup more than Morel's elite expected stats that never materialized.  
4. Competition: It was a pet theory of mine that the competition in August was subpar. If you take the Cleveland Guardians out of the equation, the teams the Cubs played in August had a 44% winning percentage between them. The Guardians were removed because the Cubs were swept by them, leaving their record against the rest at 18-5. Players play hard on every team, every game, but not all players and teams were created equally. Weird things like the Pirates leaving Domingo Germán in to give up eight runs in two innings, or the White Sox's entire schedule, just happen. It's not disingenuous to say that they performed better against not so good teams.

The Cubs are not a great offense but are flush with good players. The problem with the offense wasn't the starters. It was the lack of quality depth to replace them when they were injured. Perhaps Swanson wouldn't have lied for weeks about his knee if an adequate replacement was in the wings. Maybe Morel could have been dropped to a less stressful spot in the order. Six spots in the lineup not producing certainly affected things.

Of course, they were unable to sustain this elite offense into September. The batting average and on-base percentage stayed the same, but slugging declined due to 19 fewer doubles and 12 fewer home runs. Most notably, PCA declined from a 154 WRC+ to 92 in September, and Miguel Amaya from 157 to 61, according to FanGraphs.

Conclusions
The Cubs are not as bad as they were in May and in June on offense. They simply had a rash of injuries, without adequate replacements. Compounding this was players trying to grit things out, to little success. They got healthy, and the performance improved. Baseball can sometimes have simple explanations.

Going forward, the hope is that these injuries (that always happen) won't be in a glob of the calendar and put the team in a massive hole. They of course could add to the existing offense, and maybe the rumored Cody Bellinger trades could result in added funds and fun at the bat. It would behoove Tom Ricketts to extend his arms into his deep pockets a bit. Who knows, it could earn some of that tax money back in revenue!

It seems as if the Cubs' offensive story was a solid beginning, followed by a terrible stretch fueled by injuries and subpar replacements, followed by a torrid yet unsustainable stretch, and then a gentle coast to the finish. The good news is that there are good players populating the lineup. What Jed Hoyer and the Cubs need to navigate much better in the future is their contingency plans in the likely event that their Plan A is derailed at some point.

And we know it will be derailed! It's been two seasons now with extreme lulls and then dizzying (yet unsatisfying) peaks. As the old adage states: Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is Jed Hoyer getting fired.

Fine, fine, a little artistic license was taken here, but you should get the drift. If the Cubs can't avoid these inconsistent cycles, we can count on another missed playoffs and a new front office next season.

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Note: This was intended to be an all-encompassing article with the lineup, bullpen, and rotation, but due to length and America's decreasing attention span it will be in three parts. Thanks for reading though!

 

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