Cubs Trade Candidate Breakdown: Seiya Suzuki

[Brandon Glick]

The outfielder will likely be moved to DH with the news of Cody Bellinger’s return, making him a prime trade candidate if the Cubs want to seek upgrades in the lineup.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Seiya Suzuki hasn’t been a disappointment since signing a five-year, $85 million deal with the Cubs in March 2022, with an OPS that has climbed every year he’s been in the majors and topped out at .848 in 2024. Outside of a strikeout rate that climbed to 27.4% this past season, Suzuki has improved nearly every part of his game since first debuting stateside. Case in point: his bWAR in 2024 was a career-high 3.5.

That said, Suzuki hasn’t evolved into a true middle-of-the-order threat. He hit 21 home runs this past season over 132 games, which marked a new high point for him. Assuming he does move to designated hitter with Cody Bellinger taking over in right field, it will put much more stress on his bat to live up to his billing. Add in his $17 million AAV over the next two years, and you’ve got a player with obvious value but may not be a perfect fit for this iteration of the Cubs.

The Case For Trading Seiya Suzuki
The Cubs have one glaring, obvious need in the lineup at non-catcher spots: power. In 2024, they finished tied for 20th (with the Kansas City Royals) in home runs, with 170 as a team. That was only seven behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers but a whopping 60+ behind the two World Series participants (the Dodgers finished third with 233 home runs, while the Yankees finished first with 237). 

Ian Happ led the Cubs with 25 home runs, tied for the 24th-lowest team-leading total in the majors. Suzuki and Michael Busch were tied for second on the team. No one else on the Cubs hit even 20 home runs last year, with Bellinger and Christopher Morel, who was traded at the deadline, coming in at third with 18.

Suzuki is an ideal fit to bat second or fifth as a high-average run producer on a team with established power threats in the middle of the lineup. On the Cubs, he’s being asked to do too much. With just two years and $34 million remaining on his original deal, the Japanese outfielder could be an ideal fit on several contenders' rosters without breaking the bank.

In return, the Cubs could free up some valuable payroll space and the DH spot in the lineup, all while receiving major league-ready talent in return, either in the form of controllable arms or potentially at catcher. Assuming the team can’t trade Bellinger for anything worthwhile, and assuming they don’t want to trade Ian Happ, Suzuki feels like the odd man out in the Cubs’ outfield rotation.

Of course, trading away a surefire, above-average bat like Suzuki’s isn’t the best business practice for a team needing more offense. Likewise, the team may feel more incentive to keep him if it wants to remain a shining beacon for Japanese players, including the recently-posted Roki Sasaki.

Nevertheless, comparable trades from the past show the Cubs can extract some value to help the team in 2025 if they deal Suzuki. 

Back in 2021, at the trade deadline, the Texas Rangers dealt All-Star outfielder Joey Gallo to the New York Yankees for four prospects: shortstop Josh Smith (Yankees No. 14 prospect on MLB.com), 2B Ezequiel Duran (No. 15), second baseman/outfielder Trevor Hauver (No. 23), and right-handed pitcher Glen Otto (No. 28). Gallo was having the best season of his career at the time of the deal, with 25 home runs and Gold Glove-caliber defense in the season’s first half, though he never had the consistency that Suzuki does (as evidenced by his complete collapse in NY after the trade). Gallo had 1.5 seasons of control via arbitration at the time of the deal.

Earlier that year, the Red Sox swapped sterling young outfielder Andrew Benintendi for two prospects (OF Franchy Cordero and right-hander Josh Winckowski) and three players to be named later. Benintendi was just 26 years old at the time of the deal and peaking in talent, eventually winning a Gold Glove and earning an All-Star appearance in Kansas City. Benintendi had two years of team control left at the time of the deal.

Perhaps the deal that resonates the most around these parts is the Christian Yelich swap back in 2018, where the Brewers netted the star outfielder in exchange for baseball's then-No. 13 prospect Lewis Brinson, infielder Isan Díaz, outfielder Monte Harrison and right-hander Jordan Yamamoto. Yelich had four years left on the original seven-year, $49.5 million contract he signed with the Marlins. He was 26 at the time of the trade.

Thus, the Cubs can expect some solid prospect depth in return for Suzuki, but he’s older and more expensive than any of the three players aforementioned. A top-100 prospect and perhaps a couple of low-level fliers seem like a reasonable asking price.

Potential Trade Partners
The Boston Red Sox desperately need an outfielder to pair with breakout star Jarren Duran, especially if they trade Masataka Yoshida or Wilyer Abreu for badly needed pitching help. They have a loaded farm system, though most of their top prospects are position players, which could dissuade the Cubs from engaging. Perhaps controllable catcher Connor Wong (.758 OPS in 2024) could make for a solid fit next to Miguel Amaya.

The Chicago White Sox badly need offensive help after finishing dead last in runs scored by almost 100 last season. Suzuki is older and more expensive than the kinds of players they should be targeting in a rebuild, though he’d make a fine short-term replacement for Luis Robert Jr. if Chicago’s other team cashes in on their best trade chip not named Garrett Crochet.

The Kansas City Royals finally broke through in 2024 after years of rebuilding, though mainly on the back of elite starting pitching. MJ Melendez was probably their best outfielder this past season, and he finished with an OPS of .673. For the price of catcher Freddy Fermin and a high-upside, well-regarded pitching prospect, Suzuki would look mighty fine penciled in behind superstar Bobby Witt Jr. every day.

The New York Yankees might need a replacement for Juan Soto soon, which, admittedly, Suzuki is not. However, he’s a much better fielder than Soto and would find a comfortable home hitting beside Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe in the Bronx Bombers’ lineup. The Cubs and Yankees have done a lot of business in recent years, so Chicago surely has a few prospects that it likes from the Yanks’ system.

Other teams have serious outfield needs, and the Cubs may find a solution to their catching woes elsewhere. However, Suzuki would draw the interest of many organizations around the league, regardless of their stage of contention.

Conclusion
The Cubs shouldn’t want to trade Suzuki. He’s an above-average hitter capable of playing average defense in the corners of the outfield. For $34 million over the next two seasons, that’s a valuable player to have around on a team that claims it wants to contend again.

However, with Bellinger, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Happ all locked in for 2025, Suzuki has no defensive home on the Cubs. Even if he takes over daily designated hitter duties, his bat may not have the power the Cubs are seeking in the middle of the lineup. Plus, with prospects like Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara banging on the door of the majors, the outfield rotation is about to become much more crowded in short order.

Suppose they can fill a need with a controllable player or diversify their prospect portfolio in the upper levels of the minor leagues by trading Suzuki. In that case, that’s a trigger Jed Hoyer will have to pull.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

I know the content gods have endless demands, and outside the box thinking is fine, but we also don't have to try to credulously say that there's any path to Seiya being traded.  Seiya led Cubs regulars in wRC+ and IsoP, he probably would've hit 30 HR in a normal Wrigley year, and there likely aren't 10 hitters clearly better than him in MLB for the next 2 years he's under contract.  Trading him in the name of adding power to the lineup is ludicrous.

[work smarter, not harder]

Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses.  Oops.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, work smarter, not harder said:

Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses.  Oops.  

Welcome to NSBB! This is my fault, I meant to call that out in the edit but promptly forgot, juggling too many balls this weekend.